In January at our annual conference in Casablanca it was nice to escape the cold, dark mornings of France and get a bit of sunshine. It was an interesting and informative conference thanks to our product providers bringing their various observations and opinions about investment markets and geopolitical events.
French financial update February 2025
By Katriona Murray-Platon
This article is published on: 3rd February 2025
On 20th January, just as we were arriving at our conference, Donald Trump was sworn in again as the American president. He wasted no time getting to work with executive orders. On day two of our conference, Rathbones Asset Management presented their views on what we can expect from Trump 2.0. The phrase “Drill, baby, drill” was mentioned more than once – like his first term in office, we can expect (to the extent that Donald Trump’s decisions can be predicted) that he acts to protect American interests and American businesses with tax cuts and less regulation, which in turn is likely to be good for the US economy. This time around it looks like he has his eye on imposing tariffs on everything.
There was much talk about how well the US market had done last year. However, Rathbones also highlighted the following:
- 29% of the global stock-market (as measured by the FTSE All World index) is now in the technology sector, and of this, 19% is concentrated in just seven companies
- 65% of the FTSE World index now comprises US companies
- the top 10 holdings in the FTSE World index account for 23% of the index’s total value
So, whilst markets (and investors’ portfolios) have performed well, the dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” is a concern for some investors.
On the subject of risk, RBC Brewin Dolphin gave us a fascinating presentation on this important aspect of investment management. We often associate risk with the possibility of something bad happening if we take a certain action. Whereas is in practice there is risk in everything we do and everything we don’t do. Over the past few years, the negative impact of inflation on the value of our cash has been significant. For the long-term investor, though, with sensible planning, there is the opportunity to protect capital from erosion by inflation and to achieve strong ‘real’ returns.
It is important to review your appetite for risk regularly. The risk of being too cautious in your investment choices, for example, may lead to disappointment in the years come.
On day three of our conference, which was the second day of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House, he had already introduced executive orders and other measures, which meant that our presenters, Evelyn Partners and LGT Wealth Management, had fresh insights for us. This is likely to be an ongoing theme of Trump 2.0 – there will be lots of change, there will be lots of noise, there may be action that may need to be reversed for not complying with the law and/or the US Constitution, and there may be controversy. However, as controversial as Donald Trump is, and regardless of your personal views on his character, the consensus is that he will be good for the markets.
Prudential International told us about their funds’ positive performance in 2024, how inflation seems to be easing and how property values are showing signs of stability. In 2024 Prudential completed investments in two French forward living projects, notably Clichy Rue du 8 mars, in Paris, and Aurientis, a senior living development in Aix-en-Provence. They now have their sights set on projects on Rue de le République in Lyon, Leadenhall in London and Haymarket in Edinburgh, which are scheduled to complete by the end of 2025.
There were mixed views from our presenters on whether bonds would be a good investment in 2025. New Horizon Asset Management gave us their predictions for 2025 and showed us which of their predictions in 2024 had been accurate.
I have spoken to many people in the past about some UK pension providers requiring them to buy an annuity. Conversely, without a UK address, an annuity is generally unavailable to British expats in France. This however is not an obstacle to successful retirement planning. We work with international pension providers such as Novia Global and iPensions who provide low-cost pension solutions, with a range of investment opportunities, and the option to receive payments in Euros or Sterling. If you or someone you know would like to arrange a free, no obligation, pension review, please get in touch.
In France, there is still no finance bill, which is a cause for concern. Recent issues of Le Particulier magazine (I am a subscriber) have been rather thin. There is some financial news however that may be of interest. New PEL accounts, opened since 1st January 2025, are now paying 1.75% interest as opposed to 2.25% previously. Also, your electricity bill should reduce by around 14%, from 1st February.
If you are heading to Bordeaux, or to any of the other major towns in France, you will need to have a Crit’Air sticker in your car as of 1st January 2025.
Finally, as a reminder, please be vigilant when communicating with financial institutions. You can now look on the impots.gouv.fr website for accounts registered in your name, a worthwhile exercise to check for any that you may have forgotten about, or which may have been opened without your consent (unlikely, but worth checking). You will find this in the “other services” tab on the Impots website.
If you have any questions on any of the points made above, please do get in touch.