What are the main financial risks as an expat in France?
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 29th September 2015
Age and wealth are often linked. One increases inexorably in a linear fashion, and the other tends also to increase over time, but always in a non-linear way. Following this traditional route, we tend to become more affluent as we get older, barring financial mishaps and accidents of course. This may have something to do with the notion that as we get older we become wiser. That may well also be true up to a point, but then it can occasionally go horribly wrong. Leaving that unfortunate possibility to one side, how can we expats best contribute to our own financial well-being?
All a bit deep that, but here is what I’m getting at. If I were to attempt to present a snapshot of my average client to you, it would be of a couple in their late 50’s to early 60’s who have retired early after successful careers and family building, based either on employment or their own business. Avid Francophiles, they are now ‘living the dream’ funded by the fruits of their former labours. All is well in their world; or at least that is how it appears on the surface. Underneath though, there are concerns, and these concerns are common to all of us. Age and money.
I think very few of us actually like getting older; I certainly don’t. It is becoming more and more difficult to ignore those ‘milestone’ anniversaries. I think of them more as millstones these days. As I suspect is the case with many of us, I tend these days to look my accumulated ‘wealth’ (cough), and wonder if it will last me out. I think it will, and I certainly hope it will, but I’m pragmatic enough to realise that it isn’t a ‘gimme’ (in Solheim cup parlance).
So then I start to look at the variables. What can possibly go wrong? What can I do to defend myself against the risks? What are the risks? I am after all a financial adviser; all this should come naturally to me. To an extent it does, but knowing what is out there doesn’t mean that you necessarily know how to beat it. It does help though. Here is my top three on my list of risks to worry about:
Institutional Risk – Basically this means that you put all of your money under the floorboards in the attic, but next year your house burns down, floorboards and all.
Market Risk – How could putting all your money into VW shares possibly go wrong?
Exchange Rate Risk – This is where Murphy’s Law comes into play. Whatever the rate is; whatever you do will be wrong. Otherwise known as Sod’s Law.
Obviously, it is a good idea to work on avoiding these risks wherever possible. I thought long and hard before listing them in this order, but I do think that Institutional Risk stands out. After all, it can wipe you out completely. It can also be avoided completely. The other two cannot be eradicated, although some would argue about F/X risk.
Indeed there was a time when I would have argued that F/X risk can be avoided. In a former life (I’ve told you this before I know), I used to be a foreign exchange dealer in the world of international banking, before it became unfashionable. One of my jobs was to explain to corporate and private clients that F/X risk was the enemy, to be identified and eliminated at all costs; unless of course your job was to make money trading (gambling) in it.
Ten years ago I brought this dogma into my new career as an IFA in France. How long do you intend to stay in France? (forever). Where are your savings? (in the UK, in sterling)… Over the years, the subtleties started to emerge. The collapse of sterling against the Euro; the resulting exodus of thousands of UK ‘snow birds’ from Spain because their UK pensions wouldn’t support them anymore, and the growing realisation that our old enemy ‘age’ was always going to play its trump card; they all contributed to the much changed conversations that have with my clients these days. Strangely though, it is another banking term that now dominates my thinking, namely hedging. ‘Hedge your bets’. To be honest, I tend to question anyone these days who says that they will never return to the UK. Statistics show otherwise. We tend to base our current view on our current circumstances, preferring not to think about what will happen if we end up on our own. How many UK expats are there, I wonder, in French care homes?
Since the Euro came into existence the £/€ exchange rate has been as high as 1.7510 and as low as 1.0219. In anyone’s language that is an enormous range. Coincidentally we currently sit at almost exactly the half way point between those two extremes, but I don’t see that as any reason for complacency. We need to take this risk very seriously, especially if we accept the possibility that we will one day have no more use for Euros. I have a firm view on the best way to manage this risk, but I’ve run out of space in this edition. If you want to discuss it, you know where to find me.
Why a Pension audit is vital for your wealth Part 1
By David Hattersley
This article is published on: 25th August 2015
I have been trained in the UK and have been specialising in Pensions since 1987. As well as keeping up to date with the subsequent (and numerous) changes in legislation, I also have a good understanding of the variety of pensions offered since then. In this article I am concentrating on Pre-Retirement Planning ie. those people that have yet to take their pensions. With ever changing careers in private industry and the end of the idea of “jobs and pensions for life”, which was part of the revolution in the late 70’s, most people acquire a number of pensions and different types of pensions over a period of 30 to 40 years. In some cases, they are not even aware of their entitlement, in particular, Defined Benefits Schemes to which the rules changed from the late 80’s (my Father in Law being a case in point who was not aware he was entitled to benefits under such a scheme until well into his retirement) and Contracting Out of SERPs plans.
Since the Finance Act of 2004 pensions have come under that legislation. The general wording of this legislation was “Pensions Simplification”. As advisers at the time, we knew full well that this would not be the case and we have been proven correct, with the subsequent attacks on pensions by a variety of governments seeking to raise revenue and reduce tax advantages at the same time.
Since moving here to Spain, I have come across many clients who were not aware of the benefits that they were entitled to. It has required a vast amount of work tracking down both providers and employers that no longer exist. In some instances it has proved to be fruitless, but others have benefited from plans that they are not aware of. That is the first stage of my role as a Financial Adviser, which is to question a potential client’s work history and seek full details. That however is the easy bit as the options available at retirement have been given greater flexibility, but the irony is that independent advice is hard to come by in the UK unless you are prepared to pay a fee on a time cost basis.
The first question is, do you plan to become tax resident in another European country? For those that plan to still maintain a home in the UK (even as a holiday home), that is further complicated by ever changing rules regarding residency in the UK vs tax residency in the chosen country.
What do you need to do before you leave the UK and become tax resident in an EU country? A simple question perhaps, but the tax free lump sum available in the UK now referred to as “Pension Commencement Lump Sum” or PCLS (one can see the tax free status of that being restricted in the future) is liable to be taxed certainly in France and Spain once you become tax resident. There are legitimate rules reducing this, but once again, these need advice. How does one therefore get your PCLS to take advantage of the current UK tax free status, without having to take the pension too? Perhaps you want to stagger your pension income as a result of continued part time work or “consultancy”. Many of my generation want to still work past normal retirement age, but at a slower pace.
Currency also has an impact, within the last 5 years the £ to the € has gone from 1.07 to 1.42 Euros. If one thinks that will be maintained, consider that in 2002 when the Euro was launched the £ to Euro was as high as £1 to 1.56 Euros. The impact to those that budgeted on that basis over the ensuing 8 years was detrimental to their wealth, so how does one hedge against currency fluctuation?
Does all your pension come from a UK source or have there been earnings and pension entitlements from overseas employment? Do you have a mixture of Final Salary schemes and personal money purchase pots? Is there a need to consolidate these, or treat each individual arrangement on its relative merits?
With recent legislation, trustees of Final Salary schemes (Defined Benefits), with the exception of transfers less than £30,000, now need the involvement of a fully qualified UK financial adviser who has passed his recent exams. This is all very laudable but how can that adviser be aware of the tax rules in your new country of residence? In any analysis carried out by a Spectrum Partner, it is vetted and checked by a Spectrum Fully Qualified Chartered Financial Planner, and if need be by a UK Financial adviser if part of your pots are as above. It is important to note that no UK Government funded pension eg. Civil Service can be transferred.
Then there is the reduction in the Lifetime Allowance, the passing of your pension pot to your chosen heirs and beneficiaries, the correct selection of good quality properly regulated funds and fund managers dependant on an individual needs, regular reviews as needs change, and the changes to the amount one can take on an annual basis due to recent pension flexibility rules. These are all areas that are vital to consider.
Even after the audit, and a decision to potentially transfer part or all of one’s pots, care needs to be taken in the selection of the QROP/SIPP Trustee and the jurisdiction that it comes under.
Having mentioned the above it may be in some cases that not all your pension pot should be considered for a transfer.
It may be beneficial to consider the purchase of a Lifetime Annuity from a UK provider as these have substantial tax advantages over pension payments in Spain. This will have to be carried out before one moves abroad on a permanent basis and, as stated earlier, for every potential client advice is given on a case by case basis.
In many cases, a lifetime of pension saving can result in funds being equal to or greater than the value of a property purchased abroad. Should one not take the same planning, care, advice and due diligence when planning your retirement for an income that may have to last 30 years? That is where we can be of help.
The currency exchange rate
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 17th February 2015
Time to revisit an old friend this week, the exchange rate. Long term sufferers of my monthly missives will possibly recall that in my dim and distant past I used to be an international banker, and for part of that time a foreign exchange dealer. It was so long ago that we used to have exotic currencies such as the French Franc; Italian Lire, and even the Deutschmark. Heady days indeed! By the time I escaped from the banking world in 2002 these currencies were dead or, perhaps more accurately, held in a cryogenic state, ready to be reheated if need be. The exchange rate between Sterling and the new super-currency, the Euro, was in the mid 1.60s in 2002, and had declined to the mid 1.50s when I finally got to France in 2003. By the time I bought property here in 2004, I averaged 1.45.
The trend was set, but few people were prepared for it. During the financial meltdown in 2007 and 2008 ‘la merde a vraiment frappé le ventilateur’, and the pound plummeted almost to parity with the Euro by the end of 2008. In 2009 I stupidly agreed to start a weekly column for an internet magazine, giving my predictions for the week to come. I struggled with this millstone for nearly three years. My basic message was that large F/X movements like this are always exaggerated. Parity was plainly nonsense, and the pound ought to recover to between 1.25 and 1.30. It takes some ingenuity to deliver this basic message 130 times, and in 2012, with the pound at 1.25, I called it a day. I still remember the sense of relief when I realised I wouldn’t have to sit down at 4pm on any more Fridays to write about why the previous week’s forecast had been so wrong.
It was a good time to stop, as the rate fell again during the second half of 2012 to 1.15 before slowly resuming its upward trend. Interested parties, and by that I mean all expats, probably didn’t take too much notice as we clawed our way back up through 1.20s and on to 1.25 once more. Then, at the start of November last year, a big market move started, and people began to sit up and take notice. Two months later, and as I write, we are at a shade under 1.35. So what is going on?
Politics and economics are of course the answers. They govern supply and demand, which is the final arbiter of the exchange rate. Germany, the powerhouse of Europe, now has a stagnating economy, and Greece, not the powerhouse of Europe, is stirring up political trouble. None of this bodes well for the Euro. So we can all sit back and relax. The pound is heading back to 1.60. Hundreds of thousands of Brits will be pouring into France waving their new cheap wads of Euro, buying up all the property in sight and sending up the values of our houses at the same time.
Does anyone really think that? I certainly don’t. There is no such thing as a safe bet in the currency markets. You must never forget Murphy’s law. Whenever you really want something to happen, Murphy’s law dictates that the opposite will occur.
I think that we are approaching the time when we need to think about selling Sterling. I don’t think we’re there yet, but we need to be careful. We live, after all, in the Euro zone, and thus most of the money we spend is Euros. We may have pensions or indeed other income in Sterling, but that won’t buy your morning croissant. Until you change it into Euro; it is largely useless while you live here. Of course there is nothing you can do about your UK State pension, if you are in receipt of that princely sum. You will just have to be savvy about when and how you convert it. You can however do a great deal with an occupational pension, and you can do a great deal with your savings and investments. There is no better time than now to take a long hard look at your UK pension pot. Savings and investments held in non-French tax efficient bonds are a nonsense. Come and talk to me about them now!
For years now The Spectrum IFA Group have been advising clients on pensions and investments and I have been keen to point out that clients who have Sterling assets do not need to convert them to Euro to make use of the products available to them outside the UK. Those clients who have transferred their assets in Sterling are most probably quite pleased that they did not convert, but what about now? What if we hit 1.40, or 1.45? For my money the only way is down from there, back to my preferred levels. If we do get to 1.40, I will certainly be looking long and hard at my Sterling funds, with my finger hovering over the deal button.
Financial Independence: What’s your number?
By Jonathan Goodman
This article is published on: 16th February 2015
What does financial independence mean to you? Are you on track for a future free from financial stress? Do you know what your number is?
Knowing the answers to these questions could help determine how soon and how well you could retire, yet many of us don’t…
If you are financially independent you have amassed enough wealth to generate a passive income sufficient for meeting all financial obligations, without the need to work. Your potential for financial independence is dependent on your current net worth, your target net worth and the years remaining before retirement, as well as how much you spend. The more money you spend now and going forward, the more you will need to accumulate to support your lifestyle.
So how do you calculate exactly when you could comfortably retire?
Number Crunching
The first step towards financial independence is to calculate how much you’d need to save. A simple formula can tell you not only how much you will need, but also how close you are now to getting where you want to be:
- Study your statements and determine how much you require annually in order to meet all your financial obligations. Could this number be reduced? Are there any unnecessary expenses? Could home and car insurance premiums be reduced? Is downsizing your home an option?
- Determine what return you could get on your investments. As intimidating as the stock market may seem at first glance, it’s possible to assemble a portfolio that pays you 3-5% in dividends annually. This dividend income is cash paid to you monthly, quarterly, or annually and doesn’t erode your investment.
- Calculate what nest-egg you need to build to generate the annual income you require. Annual income required divided by the percentage return you expect to get. Calculations should include cash only, not property or assets.
Remember…
- This calculation does not account for inflation or taxes.
- This calculation only covers essential expenses. Determine how much spending money you need monthly, then calculate the annual amount and add it into your figure.
- Your life could change in the next few years, which means you’d have to recalculate. If you decide to upgrade your home or have a family, you’ll need a bigger number.
What’s Your Number?
How to protect yourself in uncertain times
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 15th August 2014
Wealthy individuals have a lot more in common than just their wealth. Ambition, skill, patience, consistency and a strategic game plan are all vital to ensure success. Keeping an eye on the end goal and never giving up have been key to reaching greater heights.
Only a minority of the population become extremely rich, as the likes of Warren Buffet, Richard Branson or Paul Getty, but this does not mean that we can’t enjoy a comfortable lifestyle with luxuries and freedom.
World stock market performances over the last 60 years reveal that the enduring trend is up and it is evident that any sharp downward movements often coincided with world calamities. Even with the peaks and valleys, stock market performance over time still yields inflation-beating returns for those who remain loyal.
Despite this, investors are concerned about the fluctuating Gold price and negative impact of the mining and metal strikes in South Africa and the developing Russian/Ukraine crisis which is already a cause for alarm – Russia is now talking of disallowing air travel over its skies to the East thus hampering tourism, the lifeblood for many of the Asian Tiger’s economies.
Hearing the words ‘hang in there’ is not enough reassurance for those trying to save for retirement or financial independence. This in turn affects investors who feel the pinch whether it be through investment of stocks directly through their own portfolio comprising retirement annuities, pension plans, QROPS, unit trusts or any other long term investment products which are exposed to the share market.
The critical questions is …
“How you manage your income and investments to shield against market volatility?”
Well, there are basically two main strategies that need to be developed in order to provide an effective buffer against economic turmoil.
The first is effective management of income and the second is a well-structured investment strategy.
Effective Money Management
It is little wonder that rising interest rates cause such widespread concern when so many people and businesses are exposed to excessive debt. If you take an average small- to medium-size business owner, they will probably have an overdraft, two car leases, a home mortgage and perhaps credit card debt. In anyone’s book, this results in a big chunk of money to repay before the school fees have been paid or the life policy has been covered.
The first step to minimising the effects in uncertain economic times is to reduce debt. If you don’t have excessive debt, the impact of rising interest rates on your pocket will be negligible and it’s worth bearing in mind that if you have cash reserves, the higher rate will benefit you greatly.
Well-structured investment strategy
The consensus amongst investment experts is to advise individuals to construct an investment portfolio in order to take advantage of long term trends. If the long term structure of an investment portfolio is healthy, short term storms can be weathered.
The first defence against any volatility in the markets is diversification. What this means, is that investors need to ensure that their investment portfolio is structured in such a way that they have investments in different asset classes such as cash, bonds, property and equities.
Uncertainty and volatility are intrinsic to investment markets. For this reason, investment should be viewed as simply a means to having enough money to live the lifestyle that you would like to live.
An investment portfolio should remain unchanged during times of volatility, unless the factors upon which the construction process was based have changed.
Investors should not change a long term game plan based on short term volatility. Attempting to time the market based on short term movements only increases portfolio risk.
The best way to protect yourself from market volatility is to first reduce your risk, which can be achieved by reducing debt. By doing this, you will have a lot less to worry about if inflation forces interest rates up.
The next step is to ensure that your investment strategy has a long term view and a financial planner will be your best resource when setting up a long term portfolio.
If you realise from the above the importance of seeking proper professional financial advice involving risk classification and correct diversification, why not give me a call in order to facilitate a meeting where we can do this.
Precious metals and gold
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 30th July 2014
Which of these has more value? Is there something better?
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When it comes to hedging (protecting) against dollar debasement, few things have performed as well as gold. Having gold or unit trust gold funds could be said to be “preparing for the worst.”
Following the fairly recent global financial crisis, governments have adopted expansionary monetary policies by cutting interest rates and increasing the amount of money in circulation to keep their banks and indebted borrowers afloat. Even though the historical case for gold is strong and the price goes up, the raw supply and demand case for platinum and palladium might be even stronger.
Russia and South Africa currently hold 80% of the world’s platinum and palladium reserves and both are struggling to maintain output. In fact, global supply is becoming increasingly less as production declines in these two politically volatile countries. Strikes in South Africa have resulted in the loss of 550,000 ounces (14,174,761 grams) worth of production in the first quarter of this year. And the tensions along the Ukraine border threaten to trigger huge disruption in markets in Russia.
This instability in South Africa and Russia all but ensures that the platinum and palladium markets will see yet another supply deficit in 2014.
Regardless, demand continues to increase and is unlikely to come down soon. Primarily, these metals are used in catalytic converters, the mechanism in your car’s engine that helps reduce noxious gas output and helps to keep the air cleaner. As more and more cars hit the roads – particularly in developing nations – the demand for cleaner air looks set only to rise.
Do you have gold shares in your investment portfolio? Or Uranium or Platinum? Now is the time to look at exactly what assets make up your portfolio. After all, I am sure you want to cover all bases.
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“The best time to invest is when you have money.
This is because history suggests it is not timing which matters, but time”
Sir John Templeton
As safe as money in the bank
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 24th July 2014
More than a fifth of UK citizens think that the best long-term investment is putting their money in the bank. This is the rather discouraging result of a July survey by Bankrate.
One of its questions was, “For money you wouldn’t need for more than 5 years, which one of the following do you think would be the best way to invest your money?”
- 26% – cash
- 23% – real estate
- 16% – precious metals
- 14% – stock market
- 8% – bonds
That thumping sound you hear is me banging my head on my desk!!
I assume those who opted for cash did so because keeping money in the bank seemed to be the safest choice.
However, for long-term investing, that safety is an illusion. The best and safest place to put your nest egg for the future is not in the bank, but in a well-diversified portfolio with a variety of asset classes. And here’s why:
Savings accounts and CDs are safe places to store relatively small amounts of cash that you expect to need within the next few months. The funds are protected by insurance. You know exactly where your money is, and you can get your hands on it anytime you want.
This short-term safety does not make the bank a good place for the money you will need for retirement or for other needs five years or so into the future. It may seem like safe investing because the amount in your account never goes down. You’re always earning interest. Yet, over time, that interest isn’t enough to keep pace with inflation.
The purchasing power of your money decreases, which means you’re actually losing money. It just doesn’t feel like a loss because you don’t see the loss in its value.
In contrast, the stock market fluctuates. The media constantly reports that it is “up” or “down” as if those day-to-day numbers actually matter. This fosters a perception that investing in the stock market is risky.
Combine that with the scarcity of education about finances and economics, and it’s no wonder that so many people are actually afraid of the stock market and view investing almost as a form of gambling.
Wise long-term investing in the stock market is anything but gambling. Instead of trying to buy and sell a few stocks as their prices go up and down, wise investors neutralize the impact of market fluctuations by owning a vast assortment of assets.
This is accomplished with a two-part strategy.
The first is to invest in mutual funds rather than individual stocks.
The second component is asset class diversification. The mutual funds you invest in will comprise all of the asset classes in proportions or percentages falling in line with your appetite for risk (conservative, moderately conservative, moderate/balanced, fairly aggressive, high risk). Ideally, a diversified portfolio should include at least four asset classes.
By holding small amounts of a great many different companies and asset classes, you spread your risk so broadly that the inevitable fluctuations are small ripples rather than steep gains or losses. As some types of investments decline in value, other types will be gaining value. Over the long term, the entire portfolio grows.
In the long term, investing in this way is usually safer than money in the bank.
Perhaps you are holding too much capital in bank accounts and are beginning to realize you will see no “real growth” thereon. Why not give me a call to arrange a mutually convenient time for us to get together to investigate better ways of having your money grow for you? It does no harm in checking and, who knows, you may come away pleasantly surprised.
“With money in your pocket, you are wise, and you are handsome, and you sing well too.”
Jewish Proverb
The REAL effect of inflation
By Chris Webb
This article is published on: 23rd July 2014
On a day-to-day basis, inflation isn’t necessarily something you spend a lot of time thinking about. However, occasionally, you might find yourself asking – what exactly is inflation? And how does it affect me?.
Inflation is simply a sustained increase in the overall price for goods and services which is measured as an annual percentage increase.
As inflation rises, every pound or euro you own purchases a smaller percentage of these goods or services.
The real value of a pound or euro does not stay constant when there is inflation. When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of your money. For example, if the inflation rate is 2% annually, then theoretically a £100 item will cost £102 in a year’s time and £121.90 in 10 years time.
After inflation, your money can’t buy the same goods it could beforehand.
When inflation is at low levels it is easy to overlook the adverse effect it has on your capital and the income it produces. Regardless of how things look today, the likelihood is that the price of all the goods we buy and services we use will be higher in the future.
Inflation does not reduce the monetary value of your capital, a pound is still a pound and a euro is still a euro, but it reduces the “real” value. It erodes the spending power of your money, potentially affecting your standard of living.
The chart below details the effect of inflation over a 15 year period, 1998 to 2013. It is easy to see that leaving money exposed to inflation risk and not attempting to beat it and achieve higher growth is a no win situation.
Many clients will say that investing is a risk (see my alternative article to risk), and of course there is always an element of risk but leaving your money in a low rate bank account, open to inflation risk, is surely the riskiest option…….you can’t win !!!
If you had left your money open to the effects of inflation between 1998 and 2013 then it would have lost 35% of its purchasing power.
As statistics prove we are living longer now which means that we can look forward to a longer retirement period therefore the impact that inflation will have on your finances needs to become a prime consideration.
An Inflationary Tale
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 20th July 2014
An Inflationary Tale
Inflation is a complicated concept. It’s not easy to understand but if ignored, your money will slowly and stealthily reduce. As a teenager growing up in the 70’s I would hear the newscasters talk about inflation and price controls yet could never tell if it was a good or bad thing. Interest rates were going up as were house prices and income. This had to be a good thing I thought but little did I know!. What I learned later in life as I studied inflation is that, like most things, inflation is a double-edged sword. There are winners and there are losers. It is good for some and bad for others. As you read this tale focus on the two main concepts about inflation. Learn what it is and what it means to an investment portfolio.
What Does The Word Inflation Actually Mean?
Type the word “inflation” into a search engine on your computer and you will probably get information informing you that inflation is “A rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation reflects an erosion of the buying power of your money – a loss of real value. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.” If you are like me and read the above definition you are thinking blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So since the objective of this Newsletter is to keep things simple, let’s just translate this to what it means to you as an investor.
I like to think of inflation in terms of what $100 can buy in the future if I don’t invest it today. Let’s say, for example, if I make 0% rate of return on my $100 bill because I either put it under my mattress or buried it in the ground or kept it in a safety deposit box and then a few years later I want to know what it can buy. This is what inflation means to the investor or consumer. What that $100 can buy is called purchasing power and purchasing power is directly proportional to the rate of inflation. The following table shows what $100 un-invested can buy at different inflation rates over different time periods. I call it my “Mattress Investing table” because it teaches us that you can’t put money under your mattress unless you want to guarantee that you will slowly erode the value of your money.
Mattress Investing
(The Loss of Purchasing Power Associated with Not Investing $100.00)
| Inflation Rate | 5 years | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years | 25 years | 30 years |
| 0% | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| 1% | $95.10 | $90.44 | $86.01 | $81.79 | $77.78 | $73.97 |
| 2% | $90.39 | $81.71 | $73.86 | $66.76 | $60.35 | $54.55 |
| 3% | $85.87 | $73.74 | $63.33 | $54.38 | $46.70 | $40.10 |
| 4% | $81.54 | $66.48 | $54.21 | $44.20 | $36.04 | $29.39 |
| 5% | $77.38 | $59.87 | $46.33 | $35.85 | $27.74 | $21.46 |
| 6% | $73.39 | $53.86 | $39.53 | $29.01 | $21.29 | $15.63 |
| 7% | $69.57 | $48.40 | $33.67 | $23.42 | $16.30 | $11.34 |
| 8% | $65.91 | $43.44 | $28.63 | $18.87 | $12.44 | $8.20 |
| 9% | $62.40 | $38.94 | $24.30 | $15.16 | $9.46 | $5.91 |
| 10% | $59.05 | $34.87 | $20.59 | $12.16 | $7.18 | $4.24 |
How should an investor read this table?
Investors should understand that if they keep money in a mattress for 15 years and the inflation rate over 15 years is 5% per year their $100 can only buy $46.33 worth of “Stuff” 15 years later. If inflation were to average 7% for 30 years their $100 could only buy $11.34 worth of “Stuff.” I know it’s silly to think that anyone would keep their money in a mattress but the reason I use the table above is because it illustrates the important concept about inflation which is loss of purchasing power. Inflation in and of itself is meaningless. What matters to people is what inflation causes which is the loss of purchasing power. As an example, when I get in my car to drive I have a rudimentary notion of how the engine functions. People that know me know I’m not mechanically inclined. I do however know how the steering wheel works. To an investor, inflation is the engine while purchasing power is the steering wheel. You can be completely oblivious to how an engine works and still be an excellent driver. So, if you are so inclined you can spend a disproportionate amount of time studying how the engine works or the nuances of inflation or you can learn how to drive and invest your money to combat the loss of purchasing power. How to invest your money to combat inflation is discussed in A Preservation Tale. I’ll give you a little hint—I am not a Gold Bug but if you put a $100 gold coin under your mattress instead of a $100 bill you have a much better chance of preserving purchasing power during inflationary times.
So once again, how should an investor read the Mattress Investing table?
Let’s focus on the 3% inflation rate since that has been a good approximation for so many decades. What this table shows is that if the inflation rate is 3% and you keep your $100 under your mattress, in 5 years it will only buy $85.87 worth of “Stuff.” I like to use the technical term “Stuff” to describe purchasing power!. To investors, the intended use of a $100 bill is to be able to buy “Stuff.” In and of itself the $100 bill is worthless. Its only value is the amount of “Stuff” it can buy. In this case it can only buy $85.87 worth of “Stuff” so the Mattress Investor has lost $14.13 of “Stuff” by keeping it in his mattress or not investing it. When you hear the term Loss of Purchasing Power it means “Stuff” you can’t buy!.
This leads directly to what I consider the minimum objective for investors and one of my maxims.
The purpose of investing should be to at a minimum maintain your purchasing power. I believe you should invest so that you don’t lose your “Stuff.”
Learn
So what can we learn from this tale that puts money in our pocket? Who wins and who loses from inflation? By now it should be clear that at any inflation rate greater than 0% you must make more than 0% on your money in order to maintain purchasing power. Yet when guaranteed interest rates are not accommodative, like they are today and have often been in the past, the investor must invest in non-guaranteed investments to maintain purchasing power. For investors that have read tales such as this one this presents a quandary. They can intelligently ask themselves, if I want a guarantee and guaranteed rates are so low that I can’t preserve purchasing power then I must accept a loss of purchasing power. However, if I want an opportunity to maintain purchasing power I must assume risk. This is the never-ending portfolio management question that is forever on every investor’s mind and will be at every stage of their life. While most investors answer this question by forgoing guaranteed returns in order to not just maintain purchasing power but to potentially increase purchasing power, others do not. There are investors that choose to avoid risk at all cost and are knowingly watching their purchasing power slowly erode.
Unfortunately, the sad circumstance for most risk-averse investors is that they behave as they do out of ignorance or fear and not based on knowledge. Many are willing to invest their money in bank CDs, money market funds and government bonds at below required levels just to keep it guaranteed. The only guarantee they’re getting during most periods is the guarantee of a loss in purchasing power. When and if there is increased inflation these are the people that will also suffer the most.
Warren Buffet
Lastly, I have included a paragraph from a 1977 article written by Warren Buffett for Fortune Magazine on inflation. Inflation was a big deal back then though we tend to dismiss it today since it’s been so low for so long. But I thought the paragraph would be appropriate since it is easy-to-understand writing and he has a unique way of thinking about inflation as a tax. If you think of it the same way you will quickly understand that inflation is a consumer of your capital. We as a society take to the streets if there is so much as a hint of our elected officials raising our taxes. Yet we have no problem when we willingly or out of ignorance tax ourselves by investing in below inflation rate guaranteed investments. The following is taken straight from the article.
“What widows don’t notice”
By Warren Buffet
The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. It makes no difference to a widow with her savings in a 5 percent passbook account whether she pays 100 percent income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation, or pays no income taxes during years of 5 percent inflation. Either way, she is “taxed” in a manner that leaves her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 120 percent income tax, but doesn’t seem to notice that 6 percent inflation is the economic equivalent.
If you are concerned that your money is not achieving returns equal to or higher than the inflation rate or wish to review your portfolio so as to make sure it is geared to do so, then please do not hesitate to give me a call.