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How long do you wait for things to improve?

By John Hayward - Topics: FTSE stock market, Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 27th April 2020

27.04.20

16th March 2020 FTSE 100 – 4898.79
24th April 2020 FTSE 100 – 5750.94
Up 17.39%

History has taught that after disasters there are recoveries. Covid-19 may well be around forever, but there will be controls. Some companies will fall victim, but others will survive and be profitable. We can help you be part of that success. Waiting for Covid-19 to go away before investing could result in lost growth and, ultimately, lost income.

Stockmarkets tend to be ahead of public sentiment and often drive how people feel. Whether the overall recovery pattern is a “V” or a “U” or even a “W” is in some ways irrelevant if you have a medium to long term (5+ years) window. I often hear people saying, “I might not be around in 5 years”. This may be true, but for most people there is more chance of being alive in 5 years than not. Even if one doesn’t survive the next 5 years, we can organise finances so that the survivors are no worse off. Not investing guarantees no growth and capital loss in real terms when allowing for inflation.

Relying on your bank to keep your money safe my not be the iron clad guarantee you perceive it to be.

Careful investing with quality management has proven beneficial for many people in the past. Looking for the quick big buck has often benefitted everybody other than the client. Let us review what you have so that you are part of the recovery and that you don´t feel upset in 3 or 4 years’ time because you missed out on an opportunity.

Contact me now and I will be happy to arrange a phone or video meeting.

Can we learn from the past?

By Jeremy Ferguson - Topics: Financial Planning, Financial Review, investment diversification, Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 24th April 2020

24.04.20

Long periods of growth in the world, followed by a creeping in of greed, have normally caused previous stock market ‘tumbles’. This time, however, something completely unprecedented has caused it, wiping large fortunes from people’s pensions and savings, for the short term at least.

This latest situation is another great example of the fact that no one really knows what lurks around the corner. Investment managers may be clever people, but it’s simply impossible to accurately predict the timings of markets taking a tumble when events such as this take place.

‘Investing is for the medium to long term’ is something you will always hear about from people like myself. If you have a time horizon that’s very short, it’s normally fraught with danger; investments need time for you to reap their rewards. So my question is, how has the world faired on this front over the last century, and what we can learn from the past?

The first ‘event’ was the Great Depression in the US, which started in the late 1920’s. What caused it?

The early part of the decade was full of exuberance, people borrowing money to buy cars, new houses, and even borrowing to make investments in the new world of the stock market.

Everyone was doing so well, then the whole thing fell apart and nearly 13% was wiped off stock market values. For those people who had borrowed heavily to invest, it was enough to wipe them out. They lost everything, as they couldn’t repay their debts, and then followed the Great Depression. This lasted roughly 12 years until the massive manufacturing effort of WWII kick started the recovery.

Next up, after many years of growth following the end of World War II, was the famous 1987 crash. This was the largest fall in stock market values at that point in history, with a 23% fall. So what caused this? It was similar to the 1929 crash, with the addition of the speed at which people could trade shares in the modern world.

People were borrowing money, leveraging investments with the money, and then things started to go wrong. This time fear took over, with panic selling ensuing, and people lost fortunes very quickly. At that point it was the single biggest one day fall in history.

This was then followed by a 12 year recovery period, with everything being a little more controlled, until the Dot-Com bubble started to inflate. It was a frenzy of over valued companies,

people buying shares they would never have normally bought. It was all so easy to make money. Everyone was involved. Greed fevered a frenzy of madness! Then it all fell apart. The bursting of the Dot-Com bubble in 1999/2000 pushed stock markets down 23% again, but many shares fell almost 100% in value.

And off we went again… over the next 8 years, behind the scenes there was the growing greed that always seems to be lurking. Easy borrowings, people buying houses they couldn’t really afford, remortgaging the ones they had to buy more ‘things’. Banks were selling on loans to other banks.
Easy money was everywhere, seemingly fuelled by greed again. And then, you guessed it, bang! The start of the 2008 Financial crisis as it became known. The American banking system almost collapsed entirely. Never before had greed almost toppled a country. 12 years of recovery followed (sound familiar?) and 2020 is the next focal point! What more is there to say? Another large ‘tumble’ in values again.

So where am I going with this? Every time this has happened in the markets before, afterwards there ensues a protracted period of recovery and growth. The important thing is the ‘line’ keeps going up, albeit in a rather rugged manner.

The below graph is an example of 50 years growth of the 500 largest companies in the US up to the 2008 crisis. It is all over the place, but if you were invested for the medium to long term, the ‘line’ goes up and up, which is why people invest their hard earned pensions and savings. To profit!

This recovery is going to be tough, and in a new and changed world. It will come from companies that are agile, well financed with flexible long term objectives, and who are able to adapt quickly to the ever changing world.

Never has this been so obvious as it is now. If you have money invested, make sure as best you can it is exposed to investments that are most likely to be part of the recovery. A recovery that history has taught us always happened in the past.

Lockdown is a great opportunity to dig out your files to see what you are invested in, and if you need any assistance or a second opinion, I am happy to help. I can be contacted at :

Jeremy Ferguson
The Spectrum IFA Group
Sotogrande, 11310, Spain
Office: + 0034 956 794409
Mobile: + 34 670 216 229

jeremy.ferguson@spectrum-ifa.com
www.spectrum-ifa.com

Why do we use asset managers?

By Gareth Horsfall - Topics: asset managers, investment diversification, Investment Risk, Investments, Italy
This article is published on: 10th April 2020

10.04.20

In this article I would just like to touch briefly on a subject which, during the good times might seem somewhat banal and maybe even pointless, but when we hit the bad times we can see the merit of why we use asset managers such as Rathbones, Tilney, WHIreland and Cazenove to manage our clients’ money.

During this time in lockdown and financial market instability, I have been listening to a number of webinars from investment managers and financial gurus to try and understand what they think is likely to happen when we exit this crisis. Below are some of the points which I have heard:

  • Within the next 6-12 months dividends from some of the best dividend paying companies will be slashed or even cut completely, to shore up cash reserves.
  • Even more focus will be put on the way we live and the way companies operate. We could see an even greater resurgence into ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) stocks. If you are unsure what they are then you can check out the article I wrote on this earlier this year.
  • We may have seen the bottoming of the markets, but much depends on what will happen in the USA. As it stands, almost 7 million people have already applied for unemployment benefit. If that rate continues it means the US will have an unemployment rate of approx 15% very soon. A level not seen since the Great Depression in 1929.
  • Any early plateau’s in the infection and death rate in Europe will be a good signal for financial markets.
  • Companies who were struggling to survive prior to this crisis will likely collapse. A great example of this is the UK retailer Debenhams which, as I write, has just brought the administrators in to look at winding the company up. However, the new tech savvy companies that have responded to changing customer trends will strengthen their position as market competition fails.
  • Nationalisations are likely, more so in the EU than the UK and the USA. Companies in the travel, retail, and leisure sectors are at the greatest risk of being nationalised. Part nationalisations are a huge drag on company performance and would be areas to avoid when the dust settles.
  • Smart working could become popular. Companies may start to change their attitude towards office space and allow more smart working for their employees. This could mean potential productivity increases but may also change the dynamics of the property market as well, mainly in the cities.
  • Is Capitalism dead? A subject which seems to be thrown around whenever we have a crisis. Actually the thinking is, not at all. In fact, one manager thought that there was likely to be a resurgence of ‘responsible’ capitalism. A capitalism that is no longer unfettered, but is more controlled allowing prosperity to grow, while at the same time focussing on our care of the environment, social care and supervision of corporate governance practices. Will we ever be weaned off this perpetual standard of prosperity and GDP growth, which is unsustainable in so many ways?
Why do we use asset managers?

It is worth just going back to point 1 for a moment, the point about the dividend cuts, and why I entitled this section:

Why do we use asset managers?

Many clients rely on income from their investments to fund their lifestyle. That may include ad hoc withdrawals or regular payments to top up pensions, pay for healthcare costs, pay for schooling fees, and general lifestyle costs. If this is the case, then relying on what has been the traditional investment type for income: bonds and blue chip equities, might be a difficult strategy post crisis.

Now, more than ever, there is likely to be a need to take income from gains in the asset prices, rather than exclusively income derived from those same assets. (Think about it as a property that is rented, but after expenses and taxes earns very little income. However, the property itself has gained in price significantly and you could access those gains to help top up your income! A bit like an equity release plan)

The importance will be to be in the right assets at the right times, to sell the gains when they have been made and secure them as a reserve to pay income payments. If you imagine that most of the major companies could be cutting their dividends to hoard cash to survive this period, while in addition interest rates on cash are likely to be cut even further and the interest rate on bonds are equally likely to fall due to easy access to government cash, then where else can we turn to generate the cash we may need? We must turn to the gains in the prices of the assets that we hold as an alternative way to generate income. This is where the expertise of asset managers comes into play. They research the market, and aim to be in the right geographical and corporate sectors at the right times and look in depth at company balance sheets to predict their future.

It’s going to be a tricky time ahead for many people and relying on tried and trusted methods of generating income that have served you well in the past may not necessarily work in the near term.

I am happy to say that all our clients are with asset managers who we trust to manage our clients money and make sure they have the income they need in the good times and the bad.

Investment Talk

By Gareth Horsfall - Topics: investment diversification, Investment Risk, Investments, Italy, Stock Markets
This article is published on: 9th April 2020

Let’s talk about our money for a moment. I know it has been the last thing on anyone’s lips in the last few weeks, but as the spread of the virus slows and when life slowly gets back to normal we will start thinking about our financial situation again, and rightly so.

As I am sure you will have noted, in the last few weeks the stock market tanked, strangely predictable in its unpredictability. That probably makes no sense at all (and I am sure the editor of this Ezine will question me about it!) but the history of financial markets shows us that the crashes come from unforeseen events which incite a huge sell off. At the time of writing a rebound in various markets appears to be taking off. How long it will last is anyone’s guess. However, a longer and sustained rebound will come quite quickly and so it is important to remain calm, stay invested and benefit from the upside as well.

(As an aside, I would ask that you start to look at your account balances now. We have a tendency to not want to look at our investments during the difficult times and whilst I agree with this at the height of the crisis, when the dust settles, and it is starting to from a financial market perspective anyway, I always coach that it is important to check your money. If nothing else it helps us to understand the phases of investments and how they are nothing to worry about. We can’t always have good news!)

We can see from the examples below what happens after market crashes and why sticking with the plan is more important than trying to time our way out and back in again.

A few examples from previous financial crises:

2008
2009

The collapse of the subprime mortgage markets triggered a recession and made 2008 the poorest year for stocks since 1931. The US market fell 10% in June 2008 and fell 10% again in October 2008, losing 19.12% for the year. On March 9, 2009, the major U.S. indices closed at 12-year lows. Then, the market took off for one of the greatest rallies. From the March 9 2009 lows to the end of 2009, the US market soared 64.83% while the NASDAQ (Tech stocks index) gained 78.87%.

2001
2002

Was much the same. After the four-day closure of the stock market following 9/11, the US market lost 14.26% in a week. But what happened next? A huge gain. The market rebounded 21% in less than three months.

There were more challenges ahead because on October 9, 2002, the US market fell again but by Halloween, a period of only 22 days, it gained 10.6%.

2003

The US market gained 26.4%, and the Nasdaq 50%.

If we go back further the story is always the same. When the markets crash, reference is almost always made to October 19th 1987: Black Monday. (This time was no different.) The US market lost 22.6% in one day! Then the recovery kicked in. During the next two trading days, it gained back all of the loss ending up 2% positive for the year.

If you had invested in the US market a week before Black Monday, you would have lost 30% on your investment in the crash … but if you held on, your investment would have gained 462% over the next 20 years.

1974

With investors fretting over rising inflation and the energy crisis, the US market lost 30% of its value during the first three quarters of the year, but then it suddenly gained 16% in October.

Between 1982 and the year 2000 the US market made a 1,500% gain. This is why we stay invested through the downturns. This is what the market is capable of achieving. There are periodic rollercoaster rides, but these are normal and they should be expected. Even with these nailbiting rides history is definitely on our side.

Difficult times & planning opportunities for investors

By Robbin Davies - Topics: investment diversification, Investment Risk, Investments, Switzerland
This article is published on: 8th April 2020

08.04.20

During this recent period of uncertainty for investors, I thought it might be of help if I gave a few insights as to possible “Safe Havens” for Swiss and neighboring French-domiciledinvestors, together with a personal appraisal of where danger exists, and how to avoid it.

Many of the Swiss insurance companies have brought out innovative savings plans which include capital protection at maturity, often combined with tax-efficient incentives supported by the tax authorities. As you will probably know, each Canton in Switzerland has a slightly different tax treatment, which can however be quite significant, whilst federal regulations are standardised throughout the country. Taking advantage of these concessions is well-worth the time and effort, and at Spectrum we have almost 15 years of experience in advising and helping both new arrivals, and long-term residents.

For all income earners in Switzerland, or those living in nearby France but working in Switzerland, there are tax-efficient solutions with the safety of not only a minimum return, but also, quite frequently, with the flexibility to adjust terms to changing circumstances. Investing or saving is not designed for short-term, and in many ways it is a form of financial disciplinewhich rewards those that “stay the journey”.

The current world-wide Covid-19 virus, once tamed, will very probably change the way the developed world thinks, and works, in the future. Remote working from home will become the norm for certain organisations, reducing pollution, increasing productivity and allowing freedom for commuters to structure their time more efficiently. This demographic change will revolutionise the corporate world.

Why is this relevant to saving and investing? Because by planning ahead, and putting in place the foundation of a portable, secure and viable investment programme it will allow you and your family to have security in the future. It is quite likely that many existing corporations and businesses will merge with current rivals, with there being “safety in numbers”. Others will be bought by better orientated competitors.

Spectrum has access to various insurance-driven products which are able to both protect your assets at the current time, yet also give you a platform for unit-cost averaging when adding in funds in the coming months and years. The payments can be made “ad hoc” – as and when you feel comfortable with the stability of the markets at that time – or can be fed-in on a regular quarterly or semi-annual basis – which smooths the volatility i.e. you no longer have to “time the market”, but instead have “time-in-the-market” working in your favour. Depending on your fiscal status, some of these products can be partially tax-deductible, or tax-deferred, which is the aim and strategy for medium-term investing. Quite clearly not all cases are the same, but we have the experience and knowledge to be able to offer you alternatives to simply leaving your assets in a bank account – currently giving virtually zero interest.

Wishing you good health, keep safe, and we are here to help advise and make suggestions if you would like a personalised interview.

Investments, what should I be doing?

By Philip Oxley - Topics: France, investment diversification, Investment Risk, Investments
This article is published on: 6th April 2020

06.04.20

What’s been happening?
It’s been a very turbulent period over the past few weeks as Coronavirus has taken hold and the impact on the financial markets has been almost unparalleled. Oil is now cheaper per litre than milk or bottled water due to an “oil war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia leading to an oversupply of oil in the markets. In addition, with fewer people on the roads and most airlines grounded, storage facilities are believed to be only months, possibly weeks away from full capacity. Some speculate that the price of oil could fall to zero! Those assets deemed to be “safe havens” such as gold have provided some refuge but it is still trading lower today than it was towards the end of February.

Most of the major financial markets experienced falls of c. 30% during the end of February and into March and whilst there has been some recovery, there remains much volatility and it’s not clear yet that the bottom of this dip has been reached.

Meanwhile, every day there is news of companies cutting or suspending dividend payments to shareholders and as I write this the UK’s major lenders have all agreed to scrap pay-outs to shareholders during 2020 (after receiving a strongly worded letter from the Prudential Regulation Authority). The banks are also being asked to scrap bonuses to their executives.

Why? Well, this should provide the banks with a much needed, extra £8bn cushion as they face increased demands to provide financial support to individuals and businesses in the form of loans, mortgage holidays etc.

What should you be doing?
For those who are close to retirement age, I cannot overstate the importance of speaking to your financial advisor during these challenging times. Essentially, the closer you are to needing to draw a pension or access your investments, the bigger the impact this drop in the markets will have for you.

For those of working age with a pension scheme or schemes and/or savings invested in the markets what actions can you take? Fund managers have been working hard to mitigate the extreme movements in the markets and protect the value of the funds they manage, but there is no escaping that a significant “correction” has taken place. For those of you brave enough to look at the value of your pension fund/s, most will be facing a reduction in value in the region of 10-25%.

It is impossible to say that there will not be further falls, however history has shown that pulling your money out now (where this is an option) or re-calibrating your portfolio by moving out of equities and into bonds, gold, cash etc. is rarely the best course of action. Typically, these decisions are taken too late (when many of the falls in value have already taken place) and re-entry into the markets is typically made too late (missing out on some of the gains that will have already taken place). The result of this is to lock in the losses that have taken place. Remember, these are only paper losses at this stage, albeit painful to bear – and it is only once you move out of the assets or remove cash that a loss will be realised. Whilst it takes a steely resolve and not a little anxiety, it is nearly always better to stay invested and ride out the storm.

It is certainly a good time to review the balance of your investments in your pension scheme or Assurance Vie to ensure they still match your risk profile. But be careful about disproportionately moving out of equities at this stage, as this may hinder the growth of your portfolio as the markets return to growth.

What next?
Markets will recover as they have always have (think 2008 Financial Crisis or “Black Monday” in 1987) – it’s simply a case of when and there could be more volatility over the coming months before we see this happen. There are some early signs of green shoots in Asian markets, for example, factory data from China showing a sharp step up in activity in March.

But the news from many European counties and the US is grim. Most developed nations, and many others besides, will experience a sharp and deep recession. The hope remains that the decline in growth will be “V” shaped as opposed to “U” shaped, meaning the recession will be short-lived and the recovery quick and significant. This is not guaranteed however, and the length of the downturn will depend on many factors, perhaps the greatest being the spread and extent of Coronavirus cases over the coming months and the speed and size of response from governments and central banks.

So, is it a good time to invest? Possibly, but with caution and perhaps a “drip-feed” rather than an “all-in” approach. And as always, it’s better to have a financial advisor working alongside you to provide professional guidance in these matters.

Finally
On a personal note, apart from when I am out meeting clients, most of the time I work from home – from the end of our dining room table which is in a quiet room during the day. I occasionally remind my teenage children to be quiet at the times they are at home, particularly if I am on the phone speaking with a client. Yesterday, my 13 year old son, stuck his head around the door and said, “Could you guys keep the noise down please?“ My wife and I were discussing the challenges of on-line food shopping and he was in the next room on a live streamed lesson, so his request was perfectly reasonable. But times have certainly changed!

The coming months are going to be very challenging for us all. We are seeing the consequences of Coronavirus both in terms of the restrictions we all have on our way of life and more devastatingly on the lives lost across so many countries. At this time, the overriding focus for us all must be on the welfare and safety of ourselves, family, friends and neighbours. In addition, on top of these concerns, many people will become stretched financially.

As the French-born Etienne de Grellet said, “I shall pass this way but once; any good that I can do or any kindness I can show to any human being; let me do it now”.

Feeling down about investments?

By John Hayward - Topics: Investment Risk, Investments, Spain, Stock Markets
This article is published on: 20th March 2020

20.03.20

Take advantage of this great opportunity

The last stockmarket crash was in September 2008. Here we are again. At the time of writing, the FTSE100 is more than 25% down, even allowing for dividends. For many, this is not an attractive situation when considering investments. For others, the few that look through the dark clouds, this is a great opportunity. It is very difficult, for the vast majority of people, to time when to buy into markets and when to sell out. When to sell can be simpler for those who have a nerve trigger point that will say enough is enough and they will take their profit. Those who sell when things are going down often get it wrong and crystallise a loss. Some will be forced to sell due to other circumstances and could be lucky that this happens when markets are historically high. Others who have to sell at a low point, such as now, are obviously not so lucky. This then leads to a lack of confidence in investing and the feeling of never wanting to be burnt again.

Anybody sitting on cash, wondering what to do with it, should seriously consider investing at a time like this when stockmarkets have crashed. Interest rates are close to non-existent so there is little to offer short term deposit savers. Inflation trundles on and so cash might be ”king” in the short term, but long term hardly ever. The problem is that whenever there is a crisis few can see beyond its end, so they will not invest until things have improved. By then, the potential profits on offer have disappeared. The fact is that that markets will bottom out. Where? Nobody knows for sure, but based on the fact that a big influence on why markets have fallen so much is fear and panic, it is felt that markets are artificially low. There may be further to go down but it is likely that there will be a significant rebound. Markets tend to discount the future. This means that, on the day that someone says the virus is under control, stockmarkets will have already been on their way up for some time.

One way of coping with the uncertainty of when the bottom of this particular dip might be is to drip feed your money into the markets. This means that if markets continue to slide, you don´t suffer a reduced value on all of your cash. Conversely, if markets increase in value, then you are part of that increase. By feeding your money in over a period of time you are able to reduce the downside and be part of the upside. In time, once this crisis has ended, you will already be invested and thus reap the benefits.

To find out how you could make more from your money, protecting your income streams against inflation and low interest rates, or for any other financial and tax planning information, contact me today at john.hayward@spectrum-ifa.com or call or WhatsApp 618 204 731.

A flight to safety, or an opportunity for investors?

By David Hattersley - Topics: Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 13th March 2020

13.03.20

I am as conscious as anybody with regard to the above virus and its potential impact and consequence. A recent financial example would be the demise of Flybe, to which the coronavirus was a contributory factor. Natural animal instincts are fear, driven by fight or flee. So how can one consider investment at such a time, when currently 24 hour news channels and the press are swamping us with a savage feeding frenzy of headline information, with many showing a scant disregard to any in depth analysis and reality.

To clarify some facts, I did some research in the reliable analyses from the UK government, “Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK” annual reports from 2014-2019. The following fact came to light: deaths in England with a contributory factor from the “flu” have varied from 14,000 to below 10,000 in each “peak season” during this period.

Viruses do mutate and new strains appear. With COVID-19 there is a documented risk for the elderly, in particular, those who may have pre-existing medical conditions, but you need to keep things in perspective.

Investing for the future

A simple phrase from Warren Buffet springs to mind, “When everybody is being greedy, be fearful; when everybody is being fearful, be greedy”.
So how do fund managers cope with this onslaught? How can they take into account all the facts referred to above? We live in a global world which has, nevertheless, regional differences. The multi-asset fund managers that we use have the resources to have access to massive amounts of data, which enables them to take all of this into account.

They invest for the long term, with an eye kept on short term risk. But they avoid short term “knee-jerk” reactions, taking a longer term view based on a minimum 5 year investment analysis and taking a balanced approach

So what’s our role as Financial Advisers? In previous articles I have eluded to each individual’s circumstances. Apart from the pure investment questions, so many other aspects need to be considered for effective financial planning including your personal situation, how much risk you want to take and how long you want to invest for. So a detailed fact find has to be the way forward, and that is carried out by us, not the fund managers. These fact finds are free, and are based on each individual’s requirements and circumstances. So feel free to contact me for a no obligation meeting, apart from the provision of a coffee!

Stock markets falling, should I sell?

By Charles Hutchinson - Topics: BREXIT, Investment Risk, Spain, Stock Markets
This article is published on: 6th March 2020

06.03.20

There are four big subjects dominating the public arena at present: life after Brexit, life after the coronavirus, life after climate change, life after the dramatic falls in the global markets.

We live in an interdependent world where news is instant across all continents (although I’m not sure whether the penguins are interested). We are aware of climate change, the antics of Widow Twanky Trump, the spread of the coronavirus and Brexit (an outdated game in which the British people have kicked off in the hope of a repeat performance of their imperial past). Hopefully we have taken onboard the catastrophy of climate change in time (not Widow Twanky, yet) before we are reduced to a desert of Mars proportions. Hopefully the coronavirus threat is a storm in a teacup. Hopefully Brexit will work out. These are all uncertainties – except one: the global stock markets.

All life is cyclical; this is enshrined in history. Take any historical event of extreme proportions; the pendulum will at some point begin to swing back the other way. The only possible exception I can think of is the reincarnation of the Dinosaurs and the Dodo. There will be other tyrants, exterminations, plagues and climate changes at some point; but in our lifetime at least you can depend on the markets bouncing back. Why? As I have described in other articles, the markets are like the tides, they come in and they go out. The sea does not disappear over the horizon in a great hiss of steam into the sunset. Money has to have a home and it is to the markets, at the end of the day, that money’s guardians largely turn. In a post apocalyptical world, bartering will still continue, even if it is with seashells and potatoes. Money is merely the lubricant of trade, whether it be between you and I or corporations or countries.

Believe it or not, the professional market traders relish market falls (or corrections, as they call them) because it presents them with the buying opportunities which are needed to make money. The falls are caused by a mixture of inexperienced emotional investors and market makers (to create the buying opportunities). What is sure now is that markets will move up again and it might be sooner than expected. No person, company or country can stay in lock down for long. We have to eat and carry on our normal lives. Sooner or later, a cure for COVID-19 will be found (they announced yesterday promising results with HIV and Ebola antiviral drugs). The old may be vulnerable, but they don’t need to go out to work, tilling the fields or driving the engines of manufacturing. They are mostly at home enjoying a good rest after a lifetime’s toil. So with a bit of care we may be able to keep them protected until the virus burns itself out.

The lesson is clear: stay invested, or if you are a little brave buy into these low levels to enjoy a potentially better return and maybe average down (don’t commit all your spare investment capital at once but buy into the falling markets in stages to increase the odds of buying near the bottom to increase your potential profits).

Remember, Spectrum does not risk our clients’ hard earned capital. We just know the tide will come in again and as long as we are in sound and sturdy boats (investment funds), it will take everyone back up the beach to new heights. Spectrum chooses fund houses for their experience and expertise, some of whom have been around for more than 200 years. It is their fund managers’ job to react to world events on a daily basis. We use them to protect our clients’ money. We arrange for our clients to access these superb funds through structures called Investment Bonds (or Insurance Wrappers) which are Spanish compliant and which offer unparalleled security (against corporate collapse) and low taxation with both income tax in Spain and the UK and also inheritance tax in Spain.

If you would like to talk to me more about this subject and the points raised, please contact me as per below and I would be happy to discuss this further.

So what is the outlook for 2020?

By John Hayward - Topics: Interest rates, Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 4th January 2020

04.01.20

How was 2019 for you? For many, it has been another year of uncertainty with an apparent lack of decision making by politicians which has led people to delay making their own decisions. For me, it was the year that I broke my ankle two days into a fortnight holiday. If only for that reason, it has not been my favourite year ever.

So what is the outlook for 2020? Questionable political leadership in the UK over the last 4 years has created a weak economic backdrop where investment firms have been unwilling to risk client money in the UK. That appears to be changing and, whether you agree or disagree with Brexit, certainty creates confidence. A known is far easier to deal with than an unknown.

The current problem is how exactly Brexit is going to go through and how long it will take. That is why top investment firms that we recommend spread their exposure globally and not just in the UK. Although most British people have been hung up about Brexit (me included), the rest of the world has been carrying on their business regardless, creating growth for our clients at a time when other people I have spoken to have been too scared to invest, waiting for that magic day when everything will be at its perfect investment point. This approach is almost guaranteed to fail, certainly in the long term. Taking a grip and making sensible, informed investment decisions now is vital without waiting for a politician to decide your short-term, and long-term, fate.

Since David Cameron announced in February 2016 that there would be a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, we have seen the following (to 31/12/19)*:

  • +12% – UK inflation
  • +49% – FTSE100
  • +30% – A low risk investment fund that we recommend for cautious investors
  • +4% – Average savings rate
  • -8% – GBP/EUR exchange rate

What these figures illustrate is that the person who invested, or remained invested, in February 2016, should now be pretty happy. Those who have decided to wait until they know what is happening are likely to have made nothing with their money remaining in a non-interest bearing current account. Their money is now worth 8% less when allowing for inflation. This “loss” is compounded for those living in Spain, receiving regular income from UK State and other pensions, by the fact that the exchange rate is down 8%.

How long do you, or can you, wait before arranging your finances for your benefit and not leaving your money propping up banks that still have issues? We have many satisfied clients who have benefited from our knowledge and expertise. In addition, with our experience of tax in Spain, we can help those living in Spain after Brexit, guiding clients who have UK investments and reducing the impact of the Modelo 720 asset declaration.

Whilst there is a new batch of uncertainty surrounding what Brexit deal will be put in place on 31st January 2020, and what trade agreements will be set up by 31st December 2020, there are positive signs for the coming year and the benefits of these can only be achieved if one is invested appropriately.

We can review your current investments, wherever they may be, and make sure that they are both profitable and tax efficient, both here in Spain and the UK.

*Sources
Hargreaves Lansdown
Financial Express
Swanlowpark