The trends for 2016 – The view from the Gondola.
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 27th January 2016
We have just returned from our annual Spectrum Conference, this year 30 advisers headed to the stunningly beautiful city of Venice.
With two days set aside for discussion and rumination over global markets and other financial changes and issues… in retrospect it seems incredibly well timed…. up to the day of departure for Venice, from the start of 2016, stock markets had fallen between 8 and 15% and Brent Crude Oil was down 20%.
So could we come back from this conference with a view on whether this highly volatile trend was to continue and was this really the end of the world? Well… yes we could.
We are very lucky to be part of a company large enough to access the resources from some of the biggest and best names in our business and they all presented fairly similar views on where we are and where we might be going, and they can all be summarised by looking at 3 main trends and a few smaller issues:
OIL, CHINA, INTEREST RATES and then EMPLOYMENT and BREXIT… so with enormous thanks to companies like Blackrock, Henderson Global Investors, Jupiter, Kames Capital, Rathbones and Tilney Bestinvest, let’s try and look at how these might affect us all.
- If you believe that there is a global recession around the corner… then sell everything and stay in cash! – We don’t!
- Is this like 2008? NO, but we could talk ourselves into it! The Global Macro scene is not that
- Markets will now move to looking at “growth” rather than being “policy” led like from 2009 to 2015. (eg QE etc)
- GDP growth is at its strongest since 2010.
- Divergence is increasing around the world (ie. end of QE in US, but increase of QE in Europe).
THE MAIN ISSUES:
CHINA – the bulk of the slowdown is now behind us, in fact China have been doing exactly what we, as the developed world, have been asking them to do for the last few years… i.e. devaluing their currency and switching to a new ‘consumption based economy’ – this all makes good economic sense BUT their communication has been poor and the ‘fiddling’ in their stock markets has not been appreciated. The economic growth rate is stabilising and as the ‘new’ tech lead, consumer economy becomes greater therefore slowdown in the ‘old’ commodity heavy manufacturing economy will matter less to the overall rate. 4 – 6% GDP growth per year is realistic for the foreseeable future… it’s still a very good growth rate, especially for the biggest economy in the world.
When China was growing at 12%, it was 1/5th size it is now… the relative amount of GDP in real terms is significantly greater now than it was then… the headline rate, might be just that… a headline in a newspaper but the over-reaction to the inevitable slowdown has been pronounced.
OIL – massive sell off through 2015… Not due to drop in demand but due to oversupply… “The Saudis are telling the US to ‘frack’ off, they want to put the US Shale gas business out of business”
BUT – the break-even cost of extraction has dropped from $110 per barrel in 2011 to $34 per barrel now, so the US can afford lower prices for longer. Some countries must keep production high just to maintain some revenues; they can’t afford to stop, even at these low prices. … This is becoming a ‘who blinks first’ situation and is all about power and geopolitics rather than normal market influences.
Low oil prices can help consumption-lead economies (New china, US, Europe etc).
INTEREST RATES – Not this year’s problem as rate changes don’t affect the economy for 12 to 24 months. The market is pricing in for at least two more US rate rises…. there is now less consensus opinion on whether this is now correct. Policy on rates is diverging across the world, US and UK increase, EU stable but with lots of QE and EM likely to decrease.
The best environment for equity market growth is when rates are rising AND growth is rising BUT rising interest rates can mean more stock market volatility as well.
Other Issues;
EMPLOYMENT – conditions are right for wage growth, especially in the US, where unemployment has fallen faster than expected. If wage growth comes through then individuals tend to spend rather than save (unlike companies) and this can lead to price inflation and further growth.
BREXIT – don’t believe the hype… if UK votes to leave the EU then there will still be 2 years of protracted negotiations as to how they leave. There are major concerns for the Finance Industry which is one of the UK’s biggest industries and cross border regulation AFTER leaving the EU could have very deep effects.
Likely to be a SOFT BREXIT or a HARD BREXIT, both lead to different scenarios playing out. Likely to be greater volatility in UK markets and GBP in the run up to the referendum but no specific trend either way.
OVERALL STRATEGY – CONCENSUS from the experts:
- Still preference for allocation to EQUITIES
- Probably add in more ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS or ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGIES over more in bonds.
- EMERGING MARKETS not ready – JUST YET!!!
- GOLD could be a good small hedge
- USD to remain strong
So overall, as a member of the Spectrum Fund committee, an investor myself and an adviser to my clients, I feel that the world isn’t over and it isn’t 2008 again. There are good shoots of growth in many markets and even with the “slow down” in China they are still the major engine for growth across the world. Many companies (and this is after all what we are interested in as investors) are healthy still (especially in Europe) and look to be reasonable value.
2016 is going to be volatile but we will make it through and there could be some surprises along the way. Since we arrived in Venice, until today, Oil is up 7% and most markets are up between 1% and 4%!!
The UK referendum on the EU – Lose your vote or use it!
By David Hattersley
This article is published on: 20th January 2016
In the words of Edmund Burke, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men, to do nothing.”
For the sake of equality I will add women as well! But, perhaps this is the greatest test of democracy that my generation has faced, and some of us, either through neglect or lack of knowledge, do not realise what we can do, as expat individuals. To simplify matters, detailed below are the facts. It is up to each individual to take the required action. I am including links to the relevant websites so you can get the full details if you require.
From the Electoral Commission’s website, it clearly states that British citizens living abroad for more than 15 years are not eligible to register to vote in UK elections.
On the aboutmyvote.co.uk website it states that registered overseas voters will be able to vote in the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. The date of the referendum has not been announced yet but it is scheduled to happen before the end of 2017.”
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register-to-vote/british-citizens-living-abroad
If you visit https://www.gov.uk/voting-when-abroad, this site gives clear guidelines on how to register your vote as an overseas voter under British Citizens moving abroad, provided that this is done within 15 years of leaving the UK.
Alternatively, one can register on the following site. It only takes 5 minutes, but you will need your old address including post code, passport number and National Insurance number.
Renewing you registration will then need an Annual Declaration. This is based on the Electoral Commission document dated March 2010 and can be viewed as below. The specific section is;
“2.21 Consequently, entries may be made or registration renewed after the end of the 15-year period where the applicant meets the application deadline as set out above. Accepted applications last for a full 12 months in all cases unless: they have been cancelled by the elector; the elector is added as an ordinary Parliamentary elector or in pursuance of a declaration other than as an overseas elector; or it is found that the elector should never have been registered through the above procedures (i.e. as a result of an objection or review).”
For those that are less fortunate than myself and many others, an alternative for those that do not qualify can register their protest on the following website;
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/111271
This is not only about us as individuals, but about the freedom of choice for our children and grandchildren.
Do not waste your voice !
Decorative & Fine Arts Society event
By Charles Hutchinson
This article is published on: 18th December 2015
The Spectrum IFA Group co-sponsored an excellent DFAS (Decorative & Fine Arts Society) lecture on 9th December at the San Roque Golf & Country Club on the Costa del Sol. The Spectrum Group was represented by two of our local advisers, Jonathan Goodman and Charles Hutchinson, who attended along with our co-sponsors Richard Brown and Lewis Cohen from Tilney Bestinvest.
DFAS is an overseas branch of The National Association of Decorative & Fine Arts Societies which is a leading arts charity which opens up the world of the arts through a network of local societies and national events.
With inspiring monthly lectures given by some of the country’s top experts, together with days of special interest, educational visits and cultural holidays, DFAS is a great way to learn, have fun and make new and lasting friendships.
At this event, over 150 attendees were entertained by a talk on Art Deco by Eric Knowles of Antiques Roadshow fame, who was simply brilliant and kept the audience gripped with his knowledge and humour.
The talk was followed by a drinks reception which included a free raffle for prizes including CH produced Champagne, a presentation wine box and a coffee table glossy book on Art Deco. Tilney Bestinvest also supplied an art deco style money box designed and crafted by Viscount Linley, the Queen’s nephew, which caused quite a stir!
All in all, a fantastic turnout and a very successful event at a wonderful venue. The Spectrum Group were very proud to be involved with such a fantastic organisation and we hope to have the opportunity to do so again.
[nggallery id=57]
Why a Pension audit is vital for your wealth. (Part 2)
By David Hattersley
This article is published on: 2nd December 2015
In the previous article, I referred primarily to Pre-Retirement Planning. This article is devoted to Post-Retirement Planning ie. when you are already drawing your pension and are tax resident in Spain. For those that are lucky enough to be in receipt of a Defined Benefits Scheme (ie Civil Service / Company Final Salary Pension) most of this article will not apply to you. The same applies to those taking income from a SIPP/ Drawdown plan. This will be covered in a future article.
Primarily this article deals with “Money Purchase Arrangements” ie. Group or Personal Pensions, Stakeholder Pensions and Contracting Out of SERPs, where benefits are being taken and the tax free lump sum has been paid.
It is important to understand the taxation of income in Spain. Unlike the UK, “Earned Income” and “Capital Gains and Investment Income” are not added together to determine the highest rate of tax payable. They are kept separate with “Earned Income” taxed at the highest marginal rate, and “Capital Gains and Investment Income” capped at rates of between 20%, 22% and 24% for the tax year 2015. When one considers a person that has a State Basic Pension of £8,000 p.a. and Earned Pension Income of £12,000 (with the current rate of exchange of 1.4) it is quite easy to slip into the next highest rate of marginal tax of 31% for “Earned Income”.
One also needs to consider the rules for Lifetime Annuities by the Spanish Law “Renta Vitalicia” and its subsequent tax treatment of said income.
So why the need for a Pension audit when one is already receiving it and declaring it to the Hacienda? Are you paying too much tax as a result of the word Pension?
So does this apply to you? Possibly, and the likely reason why, is that your pension provider at retirement converted your pension to an annuity. You may have taken all the pension pots, used an open market option and transferred this to another annuity provider that offered better rates?
It is also vital to understand both the documentation sent by the UK provider on an annual basis and the treatment of pensions and annuities by the UK HMRC. Unlike the Spanish, the UK HMRC treats both pensions and annuities as one, and they are taxed under income tax rules. It is vital that this is understood. Even if you have previously informed the provider that you are living in Spain and are receiving your pension gross, due to UK HMRC rules, you will still receive a “P60 End of Year Certificate” from the provider. This clearly states under the heading “Pension and Income Tax details”.
In these cases you could be paying too much tax without realising it! As an honest citizen, one presents the P60, without having the original policy document translated into Spanish, to your local Abagado / Gestor, who in turn presents the documentation to the Hacienda. It is hard enough for them to fully understand English, let alone the tax laws relating to the UK re. pensions and how they differ to Spain. The same could be said if one is receiving advice from a UK based adviser or an “Offshore Adviser”, who are very unlikely to understand or be able to assist with the complexities of Spanish Tax law.
And the reason for this is that Spain’s tax rules treat the purchase of a Lifetime Annuity as “Investment Income” even when a “Pension Pot” is used. The full income tax law is LEY35/2006 de 28 de noviembre, del Impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Físicas (LEY IRPF) The specific part relating to the taxation of Annuities is found in Articulo 23 as follows:
- The taxation of lifetime annuities– Articulo 25.3 a) 2º LEY IRPF
- The taxation of temporary annuities – Articulo 25.3 a). 3º LEY IRPF
Instead of being taxed on the full income amount, a discount is applied based on the age of the recipient when the original annuity was purchased. So for someone between the ages of 60 to 65 at the time of purchase, this represents 76%. Therefore referring to the above example the taxable “Investment Income” is only £12,000 x 24% = £2,800. The £2,800 will then be subject to the lowest “Investment Income” rate of 20% (assuming no other income) ie. tax payable of £576 p.a. A very substantial saving when compared against being taxed under “Earned Income” rules. For ease, I have not calculated the rate applied if one moves into the next highest rates of marginal tax!
I have come across a number of clients in this exact situation and I am in the process of correcting this error. Already one client has had a rebate, backdated 4 years (due to the statute of limitations) and now pays substantially less tax as a result. But it is both time consuming and hard work having to track down the likes of Pearl, Equity and Law, Equitable Life, Commercial Union, Scottish Equitable, Sun Life, Clerical Medical and Eagle Star (to name but a few) who were the major providers of pensions in the 80’s and 90’s, and then confirm it was a Lifetime Annuity that was purchased.
This is further complicated by those in Final Salary Schemes like the Teachers Superannuation Scheme, who at the same time contributed to the Group AVC, and considers that the pension income comes from one source. There is the possibility that the AVC under a default process purchased an Annuity offered by the same provider.
This is a service provided for existing clients, although at some stage they will need an official translator to translate the documents into Spanish if the UK provider will not do so.
In some instances though, either because of a lack of understanding by 3rd parties ie. the Hacienda or a Gestor, some people are claiming their pension income from a QROP/ SIPP as a temporary annuity whilst still retaining control over the investment and have not actually used cash to purchase an annuity ie it is still a pension in drawdown.
This is incorrect and will be explained why in a later article. Further articles will also include “The Treatment of Small Pension Pots”, “Pensions Flexibility” and “Pensions in Drawdown”. What I have learned time and time again over the course of many years experience in the pensions industry is that the “Devil is always in the detail” and why a pensions audit is vital.
As Financial Advisers we are not professional tax advisers, but we work closely with said professionals, and in this instance the tax advice has been provided by HCS Accounting of Denia
How much have your savings increased in the last 12 months?
By John Hayward
This article is published on: 26th November 2015
How much have your savings increased in the last 12 months?
Which of the following reflects where your money has been?
Savings account +0.5% to 2% (before tax)*
FTSE100 -3.17% (before charges and after dividends)*
Cautious fund +4.3% to 5.5% (after charges)*
With interest rates predicted to stay low for some time to come, many in Spain are finding it difficult to grow their savings, or increase their income, without having to take risks they would not normally do, risking their capital.
So what are the options?
Deposit account
There are Spanish savings accounts offering around 2% although in reality this could be the rate for the first few months which will then reduce to a much lower rate. There are often restrictions on how much you can invest in these accounts. Inflation is running at a higher rate than most savings accounts and so, in real terms, most people are losing money in what they see as a risk free account.
Stockmarket
Over the long term, through growth and dividends, it is possible to make significant gains. However, first-hand knowledge, or a lot of luck, is required to make the most of stocks and shares. Most people tend to have neither. In addition, most people are not prepared to take the rollercoaster ride that stocks and shares tend to produce.
Structured Notes
These are, generally, complicated and inflexible products which are really only suitable for experienced investors. The gains can be based on a variety of things but often requiring 5 to 6 years before seeing any return.
Property
Over time, property has proven itself to be a winner. However, it has also proven that it can suffer massive reductions. It is also probably the most illiquid asset you can hold as well as potentially, the most costly to hold in terms of upfront costs, taxes and maintenance. There can also be emotional risk.
Under the mattress
This is often mooted as a home for money in times of uncertainty but then there is the risk that it could go up in flames or end up in a burglar’s swag bag.
The solution?
As financial planning advisers, we are in a position to offer the best of all worlds; the potential for growth in a low risk environment. By Investing in a Spanish compliant insurance bond, with a company that is one of the strongest in Europe, holding a variety of assets, including shares, bonds, cash and property (but not the mattress), one can achieve steady growth. There is also the facility to take regular income. Your money can grow tax free within the bond until money is withdrawn. Even withdrawals are taxed favourably. Two potential advantages; higher growth and lower taxes. Perfect!
* Source: Financial Express (12 months to 23/11/15)
The Law of Esterovestizione
By Gareth Horsfall
This article is published on: 19th November 2015
The Law of Esterovestizione.
You are probably wondering with such an elaborate title then what on earth the topic could be about? Well, this topic came about because in the last few years I have met people who are operating Ltd companies in the UK or in Ireland, but who are living as a tax resident in Italy. This could present some issues and so I thought I would explain the law of Esterovestizione to highlight the problems of registering a business in one European state but operating from Italy. (There may be other legitimate reasons for operating a Ltd company in this way, but I am aiming to explore the main issue for smaller businesses).
How does it all work?
If you own 100% of the shares in a Ltd company and your are the sole director of the same Ltd company then there could be issues if you are an Italian tax resident. The risk being that if the Italian authorities were to interest themselves in your business then they may consider that the business should fall within the Italian rules on ‘esterovestizione’.
What is Esterovestizione?
This is the Italian rule which finds that where an overseas company is controlled by an Italian tax resident it is treated as an extension of their personal assets and therefore becomes subject to the Italian fiscal system and is re-taxed in Italy in accordance with Italian tax laws for corporation tax purposes. What constitutes control is a matter of fact in each case but the authorities look in particular at the board of directors and the shareholdings. What they are looking for is the “place of effective management” of the company, where the decision-making of the company is carried out and if it is by an Italian tax resident it is likely that the rules of esterovestizione would apply.
The authorities look to the substance rather than the appearance, so that the fact that the registered office is outside Italy will not be considered relevant where it is clear that the decisions are in actual fact taken by a person who is resident in Italy.
If you own 100% of the shares and are the sole director of a Ltd company, then this has all the makings of a classic case for the authorities to argue that the Ltd company should be treated as if it were Italian.
If the company is deemed, through your control of it, to be an Italian entity, then the company would effectively be regarded as having failed to meet, for several years, all the usual obligations binding Italian companies, including registering for IVA, filing corporation tax and IVA returns, registering and filing accounts etc.
The fact that you had complied with all these obligations in the UK or Ireland would not be considered relevant.
As the basis on which esterovestizione is applied is the effective control of the company in the hands of an Italian resident you can try and avoid these provisions by appointing trusted non-Italian residents as shareholders/directors – family members, for example – or alternatively to have nominee arrangements whereby a company or individual acts as nominee shareholder on your behalf. Family members and nominee shareholder arrangements of this type are still common, but the situation has become considerably more problematic in relation to both of these arrangements and it is now difficult (and very expensive) to find a professional prepared to accept the responsibility.
However, with the general tightening of the law in relation to nominee arrangements, this kind of structure is no longer effective. The current requirement is to be completely transparent – you need to declare any structure under which you are the beneficial owner – so even if there is a third party who nominally appears to be in charge, but in actual fact they merely operate on your behalf then you are under an obligation to declare your interests in the company in exactly the same way. Failure to do this amounts to making a false statement to the Agenzia.
What is the chance of being found out?
This surely represents a much more complicated area of information exchange than we have seen in recent years for a physical person. Individuals are for all intents and purposes already under the spotlight and financial information is being shared across European and other borders. Obviously, sharing information on underlying shareholders in a Ltd company is much more complicated. However, it is a plan for the EU to action in the very near future.
The EU have been very vocal about transparency of Ltd companies and I have also seen a number of documentaries on Italian TV in the last year, on exactly this subject. One that springs to mind was ‘Presa Diretta’ which focused mainly on Italian residents who set up Ltd companies in the UK and also Panama. If you would like to see the programme, you can watch it HERE (It is 1hr 27 mins long)
It is anyone’s guess how long a free flowing exchange of information on Ltd companies will take place, but planning to ensure you are not one of the people who are made an example of is probably a sensible long term business decision. That might be as easy as setting up an Italian Srl.
Le Tour de Finance – 100th event in Dinard
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 15th November 2015
Our 100th financial seminar was quite rightly our biggest yet with approximately 90 attendees out of the 106 who had RSVP’d.
Guest speakers from Rathbones, SEB, Tilney Best Invest, Prudential International and Standard Bank all flew in specially for this event alongside the organisers and founders, Pippa Maile from Currencies Direct and Michael Lodhi from The Spectrum IFA Group.
The venue, Le Grand Hotel Dinard, was a fabulous location with first-class service and an excellent buffet lunch to finish.
There were plenty of prized to mark the event – five lucky attendees went home with 100euros in cash each, everyone received a goodie bag plus there was a prize draw for other prizes including champagne, signed British rugby shirts and autographed books.
Thank you to everyone who came along and made this such a great success. If you are one of the people who unfortunately had to cancel at the last minute, please feel free to drop us a line at seminars@ltdf.eu if you would like copies of the presentations or have a specific topic that you would like advice on.
[nggallery id=54]