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Retiring in Spain with a UK State Pension – How does it work?

By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 7th March 2016

07.03.16

Many people understand that the UK is in the EU (for now at least) and therefore when you retire, it should be simple to understand how you claim your State and personal pensions. The main questions people have are what pension will you receive, how will you receive this, where should you be paying your taxes and how when retired, can you receive your pension in Euros and what could happen if you don’t have this organised correctly?

Over the last few years this has changed and, as of now, works in the following way.

Never worked in Spain but retiring here

In this scenario, having never paid Spanish taxes you will receive the UK State pension by contacting the HMRC on the following links:

How to check what State pension you have

www.gov.uk/check-state-pension

How the State Pension works

www.gov.uk/state-pension

How the new state pension will work

www.gov.uk/new-state-pension

How to claim your state pension online

www.gov.uk/claim-state-pension-online

Early retirement and State Pension

www.gov.uk/early-retirement-pension

You will be able to find out exactly what you will be entitled to and how it works. UK State pensions are always paid gross and never taxed, it is your duty to report this in your annual earnings whichever country you are resident in and along with your income, pay the relevant tax. State pension does come under the tax bracket as income tax.

www.gov.uk/tax-uk-income-live-abroad

You can choose to have your UK State pension paid into a UK bank account in sterling, or into a Spanish account in Euros at the rate of exchange that day (i.e. almost no costs for doing this).

If you have a private or company pension scheme in the UK, you should register on the following link and make sure this is also paid gross to you:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/double-taxation-united-kingdomspain-si-1976-number-1919-form-spain-individual

Then, you should be declaring this income in your annual tax return here in Spain (Declaracion De La Renta) and pay the relevant taxes, it’s advisable to find a good gestor to guide you.

A word of note here, unlike in the UK where your accountant/tax advisor is accountable for the advice they give you, here in Spain YOU are liable, even if the advice you are given is wrong. This stems back from Spanish culture, which you may remember when you learnt Spanish that they say in essence ‘The pen fell from my hand’ whereas in English we would say “Oops, I dropped the pen”.

Worked in Spain & the UK, Retiring here

In this scenario, as the UK is part of the EU, you should approach the local tax office in Spain and inform them of your situation. They in turn, would then contact the other countries you have worked in and where you paid tax and National Insurance contributions. This would then be paid to you by them directly as they collect from the relevant countries.

Different countries have different ages that they start paying your State pension from, so you need to bear that in mind.

Failure to correctly declare your pension income

What if you are or planning to be a resident here in Spain, but collect your UK state and private pension directly from the UK and do not declare here and in essence pay no taxes here? Surely, as the UK and Spain have a Double Tax Treaty (DDT, which means that you will not pay tax twice on any income you receive) as long as you are paying tax somewhere it’s not a problem? Well, consider that you are living in Spain as a resident, using their services, taking advantage of the healthcare and all the other things that make living here so enjoyable. Yet, you are paying UK taxes even though you are not living there. As you can see this doesn’t seem right! And it isn’t! Therefore, if you are found declaring your income incorrectly, it could result in you being fined, maybe even substantially. What is more, there is usually a minimal difference in the tax you might pay, whether it be in the UK or here, depending on your situation and income.

Also, give the fact that WILLS have now changed as of last August, meaning in essence you can choose which jurisdiction (country, laws) your estate would apply to, there seems little reason to risk this and not declare and pay your taxes as they should be. It would certainly stop a nasty knock at the door at some point down the road, especially as of next year when Common Reporting Standards come into rule (CRS – where countries around the world will be sharing information on the finances of their passport holders) meaning it’s even more likely you could be ‘found out’. Please note, this does not change where you are taxed for succession issues.

Therefore, we recommend making sure you are doing things properly, whether this involves you declaring this yourself or through a gestor, as well as making sure your WILL is up to date.

Pensions Back on the Government’s Agenda Again!

By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 4th March 2016

The date that is etched in everyone’s mind at the moment is 23rd June, when the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU takes place.

However, if you still have pension benefits in the UK to claim, there is another date that you should be focused on – 16th March – the date of the UK Budget.

Last summer, the government launched a consultation on pension tax relief and this is what the Chancellor said ……….

“With increased longevity and the changing nature of pension provision, the government needs to make sure that the system incentivises more people to take responsibility for their pension saving so that they are able to meet their aspirations in retirement.”

Incentivising people to save for retirement? Well that’s not new. The current system of the tax-free Pension Commencement Lump Sum (PCLS) and tax-relief on pension contributions is already a good incentive, even though the latter has been capped and steadily reduced since 2006. So what more does the government think should be done?

The chancellor goes on to say ……..

“That is why the government is today publishing a consultation on pensions tax relief. If people are to take responsibility for their retirement, it is important that the support on offer from the government is simple and transparent, and that complexity does not undermine the incentive for individuals to save.”

Now “simple” and “transparent” are not words that appear in my dictionary on the UK pension system. On the other hand, “complexity” does, particularly as concerns the new State pension system coming into effect in April, something that I will cover in another article.

The most radical idea that the chancellor floated was the introduction of the Pension ISA, where all pension contributions would be paid on post-taxed income, but thereafter, no tax would be payable – either on the investments in the pension fund or on the pensions in payment. Definitely attractive to a cash-strapped chancellor who wants to at least ‘balance the books’ during the remainder of this government’s term of office, but hugely short-sighted for future generations, when demographic pressure on public spending and the need for tax revenues is likely to be more severe.

The system would also be hugely complex as, in effect, two separate pension pots would have to be kept – the old system ‘post-tax pot’ and the new system ‘pre-tax pot’. Maybe the government would introduce some transitional arrangements to convert ‘post-tax pots’ into ‘pre-tax pots’ and if so, for sure there will be some losers. Costs for administering the new arrangements would increase and for the dwindling number of remaining defined benefit pension schemes, this could lead to these ending up in the ‘pensions graveyard’ – who will pay the levies to the Pension Protection Fund then?

An alternative idea proposed is for pension contributions to be paid out of post-taxed income and for a flat-rate of tax relief to be paid by the government into the pension pot or into the defined benefit scheme. If the tax-relief is limited to the basic rate of 25%, higher tax rate payers will lose out – some incentive!

The government’s current thinking on this to incentivise people is – ‘if you pay into your pension, the government will top it up’. This is spin, the tax-relief at source already exists for occupational pension schemes and a delay in getting the government’s so-called ‘top up’ into the pension scheme would be detrimental for the pension member.

The effect on the employer of defined benefit pension schemes should also not be underestimated, where the employer is legally obliged to ensure that the pension assets can meet the liabilities. Any delay on getting the tax-relief due into the defined benefit scheme is in effect, an interest-free loan to the government. My pensions career started more than 40 years ago and I remember well how long we had to wait for National Insurance rebates to be paid by the government into occupational pension schemes. Another nail in the coffin, on route to the pensions graveyard?

I save the ‘best’ to last – the abolition of the tax-free PCLS. Of course, I am being cynical because there is nothing good that could come out of taxing the beloved PCLS and definitely not the best way of incentivising people to save more for retirement. Receiving a tax-free cash sum has been at the heart of the UK pension system for decades. To take this away now, when people have saved for years and planned for retirement on the basis that they would receive this tax-free PCLS is quite simply wrong.

Of course, the government could just tinker with the existing system more by reducing the maximum amount that people can pay into tax-relieved pension funds and perhaps also by no longer allowing employers tax-relief on National Insurance contributions. The latter would hurt employers, particularly with the abolition of contracting-out of the State Second Pension from April, which anyway results in increased National Insurance Contributions (another nail in the coffin?).

The first organised UK pension scheme can be traced back to the 1670s, when the Royal Navy put in place provision for its officers. Other public sector pensions followed over the centuries, but it was in the 1950s and 1960s that corporate pensions became a prominent part of the remuneration package. In the good old days of easily understandable pension schemes, we were encouraged to pay Additional Voluntary Contributions – after all you got tax-relief and so were incentivised to save more for retirement. When I started work, the maximum amount that we could contribute was simply limited to 15% of earnings – regardless of whether you were a basic rate or higher rate taxpayer.

Do you trust future politicians not to change the UK pension rules again?

If you would like to have a confidential discussion about your pension or any other aspect of your personal financial situation, you can either contact us by telephone on 04 68 31 14 10 or by e-mail at limoux@spectrum-ifa.com. Alternatively, drop-by our Friday morning clinic at our office at 2 Place du Général Leclerc, 11300 Limoux, for an initial discussion.

The Spectrum IFA Group advisers do not charge any fees directly to clients for their time or for advice given, as can be seen from our Client Charter.

UK Pension Tax Changes 6th April 2016 (lifetime allowance)

By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 3rd March 2016

03.03.16

Anyone who has a private or company pension in the UK could be affected by the changes being brought in on the 6th April this year. This may be anyone with private pension(s) whose combined value is around £1,000,000, or a company pension scheme which would give an income in retirement of approximately £40,000 per annum.

In essence, the changes affect the tax you would pay on this money. Up until now, any pensions combined under £1,250,000 in real value would not be subject to any further taxes than those of normal income or inheritance tax. However, any pension with a value higher than this would be subject to additional taxes. This allowance is called a ‘Lifetime Allowance’ (LTA). The tax on pensions over this value can be up to 55%.

As from April this year, this Lifetime Allowance Value is being reduced to £1,000,000. Therefore, any pensions combined worth more than this would now be liable to these potentially additional taxes.

If you have a Corporate, Company, Final Salary or Defined Benefits Scheme this will also be tested against the new Lifetime Allowance. These Schemes are based on your final salary when leaving your employer as opposed to contributions and investment growth, and the amount usually has to be multiplied by a factor of 20 in order to calculate the capital equivalent value. These Schemes also usually pay a tax-free lump sum, and this also has to be included in the LTA calculation. Therefore, depending on the pension(s) this new limit may affect you.

What are the key factors involved in the Lifetime Allowance testing?

Retirement after age 55: Once a lump sum/income is taken from a Pension, these are tested against the LTA.

At age 75: Any Pensions that have not been accessed will be tested against the LTA at this time. Pensions in drawdown will also be tested again at this time.

Death pre-age 75: Pensions will be tested against the LTA to ensure that the limit has not been exceeded.

Transfer to a QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme – when you transfer your pension outside of the UK): If a UK Pension Scheme’s funds are transferred into a QROPS, the value of the transferred funds are tested against the LTA.

Of course, the main point here for many people is death before age 75. If this happens, as is stands your pension will be subject to this potential tax from £1,000,000 and above.

What are the tax charges?

If the Lifetime Allowance is exceeded, then the tax charges will depend on how the excess is paid from the Scheme.

If as a lump sum (normally the case in inheritance): subject to a 55% tax charge.
If as a Pension Income: subject to a 25% tax charge.
Transfer to a QROPS: subject to a 25% tax charge on the excess above the LTA.

Is there any protection against Lifetime Allowance charges available?

The UK Government has confirmed that from April 2016, the following two protection regimes will be available, allowing individuals a fixed or individual LTA dependent on the value of their Pensions and/or the type of protection:

Fixed protection 2016: This ‘fixes’ the LTA at the current £1.25m. In order for this to apply, no further Pension benefits can be accrued in a Scheme on or after 6 April 2016.

Individual protection 2016: The LTA will be set at the value of the Pension on 6 April 2016, when the new £1m LTA is introduced, so long as it is valued between £1m and £1.25m. This protection does allow further contributions, but any Pension in excess of the protected LTA will be taxed on the usual way when tested.

What about a transfer to a QROPS/Overseas pension scheme?

This currently enables an individual to safeguard their Pension Fund against this tax charge and allows the fund to carry on growing. As detailed above, the fund is tested against the individual’s Lifetime Allowance at the point of transfer, rather than at the point of each pension being tested as per above scenarios, i.e. death before pension accessed etc.

Perhaps the most important information to know regarding this, is that not so long ago the Lifetime Allowance for pensions was £1,800,000 in the UK. It is consistently reducing, which is worrying considering every twenty four years historically inflation doubles, and yet the Pension Lifetime Allowance is dramatically being reduced instead of increased, such as the tax bandings for income tax have been after years of lobbying by the general public. This could lead us to one main conclusion, the UK governments’ need to collect more and more taxes. Therefore, as the years pass by it could be this differential continues to grow and grow, in real terms meaning individuals will pay more and more tax.

The key points to consider with this are:

Having your pension(s) in the UK will enable them to be liable to the UK rules and the government’s ability to change them, including the uncertainty of what these changes may be in the future.

The Lifetime Allowance is consistently decreasing, meaning taxes are consistently increasing.

Understanding of these changes and how it might affect you could save you or your loved ones considerable money in potential taxes.

If you have no plans to retire in the UK and have pensions there, it could be worth having these evaluated to see whether it would be beneficial for you to transfer them securely outside of the UK.

Talking your personal circumstances through will put your mind at rest, or enlighten you on what your options are and how you can best plan for this eventuality.

If you would like to ask any questions regarding this subject, or speak to Christopher, a UK pensions expert who wrote this article, feel free to contact him on the details below.

To QROPS or Not?

By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 25th February 2016

The rapidly changing landscape of pension schemes in the UK has led to a great deal of confusion, and it’s not just UK pensioners who are affected. The rule changes also impact expats living outside the UK, especially those considering the benefits of a Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme (QROPS).

As an expat, it’s hard to know which route to take. Should you transfer to a QROPS or leave your pension in the UK? What are the benefits and drawbacks? What impact have recent changes had on your options?

Let’s look at the QROPS facts…

  • Up to 100% of the pension pot is available, depending on the jurisdiction. 25% could be tax-free if you are UK resident but could be taxable if resident outside of the UK.
  • Uncertainty of more UK tax changes, with several ideas being muted which all in essence make you liable to pay more tax or have less allowances on your pension.
  • No pension death tax, regardless of age, in Gibraltar and Malta.
  • Greater investment freedom, including a choice of currencies and investments which could make a difference to the amount of money you receive.
  • Retirement from age from 55.
  • Income paid gross from Malta (with an effective DTT), and only 2.5% withholding tax in Gibraltar.
  • Removal of assets from the UK may help in establishing a Domicile outside of the UK (influences UK inheritance tax liability).

What will happen if you leave your personal pension in the UK?

  • On death over the age of 75, a tax of 45% on a lump sum pay-out.
  • Income tax to be paid when receiving the pension, with up to 45% tax due, likely deducted at source.
  • Registration with HMRC and the assignment of a tax code which could start as a higher emergency tax code.
  • Proposed removal of personal income pension allowance for non-residents. Although this is still on the agenda, it has been confirmed that there will be no change to non-residents’ entitlement to personal allowance until at least April 2017.
  • Any amounts withdrawn will be moved into the client’s estate for IHT purposes, if this is retained and not spent.
  • As the client will be able to have access to the funds as a lump sum, these could potentially be included as an asset for care home fees/bankruptcy etc.

What Does All This Mean?

Regardless of the proposed legislation amendments, transferring to a QROPS still provides certain benefits that the UK equivalent would not be able to offer, although it’s fair to say that both still hold a valid place in expatriate financial planning. The answer to which pension is more suitable for you will ultimately depend on your individual circumstances and long term intentions. It is vital you talk to a Financial Adviser who can advise you correctly on this.

Spectrum sponsors the NADFAS event in Costa del Sol

By Charles Hutchinson
This article is published on: 24th February 2016

24.02.16

The Spectrum IFA Group co-sponsored an excellent NADFAS (National Association of Decorative & Fine Arts Societies) lecture on 17th February at the San Roque Golf & Country Club on the Costa del Sol.  The Spectrum IFA Group was represented by our local adviser, Charles Hutchinson, assisted by his wife Rhona who attended along with our co-sponsors Ignacio Ortega & Tricia Anderson from Currencies Direct.

The National Association of Decorative & Fine Arts Societies is a leading arts charity which opens up the world of the arts through a network of local societies and national events.

With inspiring monthly lectures given by some of the country’s top experts, together with days of special interest, educational visits and cultural holidays, NADFAS is a great way to learn, have fun and make new and lasting friendships.

At this particular event, over 100 attendees were entertained by a fascinating talk on Indian Textiles Art & Design by Jasleen Kandhari, Head of Department, Oxford University.

The talk was followed by a drinks reception which included a free raffle for prizes including CH produced Champagne and a coffee table glossy book on Indian Fabric Design.  Currencies Direct also supplied a presentation box of Cognac and Chocolates and desk diaries.

All in all, a good turnout and a very successful event at a wonderful venue.  The Spectrum IFA Group were very proud to be involved with such a fantastic organisation and we shall also be sponsoring next month’s event on the subject of Fabergé’s Imperial Easter Eggs from the Russian court.

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Le Tour de Finance – Spring Seminars

By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 23rd February 2016

23.02.16

The spring run of Le Tour de Finance seminars in France is kicking off this week on the 8th March in Limoges and then moves on to Poitiers on the 9th March and Mouzil on the 10th March.

Le Tour de Finance in 2015 proved to be the most popular series of events ever and we celebrated the 100th event in November. The seminars offer English speaking expats a chance to meet various experts from fields including; specialist expat independent financial advice, mutli-asset wealth management, currency exchange, QROPS/pensions and expat tax advice. The experts represent a range of international institutions giving attendees unprecedented access to ask those nagging questions about living as an expat in France.

The events commence at 10am with a welcome coffee followed by a series of short and informative presentations. The seminars are wrapped up with a free buffet lunch and the chance to personally meet these experts and mingle with other like minded expats.

The next events are:

8th March 2016 Haute-Vienn Limoges Register Now
9th March 2016 Poitou-Charentes Poitiers Register Now
10th March 2016 Pays de la Loire Mouzeil Register Now

 

If you would like further information or would like to book a place, please contact us

The objective of Le Tour de Finance is to provide expatriates with useful information relating to their financial lives. We try and cover frequently asked questions that we receive from our clients. It would be helpful for us to know what your particular areas of interest might be.

For further details and to book your place at a future event please register here or complete the form below.

Planning for the yachting season ahead

By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 22nd February 2016

22.02.16

You spend much of your professional lives working hard for other people; this season I want to challenge you to do one thing for you and your future every month.

MARCH (i.e. now):
Consolidate your bank accounts – you don’t need them all.Have an account in the currency in which you are paid and another in any other currency you regularly use. You don’t, need lots of accounts, but make sure your total balance is below the compensation limits for the jurisdiction in which you hold the account .

April:
Don’t spend money just moving it around, open a currency broker account. If you need to move money from one currency to another, don’t use your bank, your currency broker can save you a small fortune on exchange rates and fees.

MAY:
Invest in yourself! What are you going to do at the end of the season? Consider now what your next set of exams will be and when you can do them. Put money aside for fees and living costs. Check your visas and passports if you are crossing to the U.S. later in the year. And start a diary (see November…).

AUGUST:
This is the really busy time; stop and consider your longer term future. How long do you want to stay in yachting? What do you want to do after yachting?What do you want to get from yachting (personally and financially)?

SEPTEMBER:
The season is calming down – are you really covered? Time to check exactly what health insurance you have on board and if there is any accidental injury or even death in service protection for you and your beneficiaries while you work. When you know, tell someone at home so they can claim on your behalf if necessary.

OCTOBER:
Cash is no longer king. At the end of your season you may have a pot of cash that you can’t get into your bank (due to strict money laundering rules). Negotiate to have tips paid directly with your salary into your bank account, keeping only the petty cash required. Many Captains will do this.

NOVEMBER:
Tax residency is a matter of fact. Get organised and keep a diary of your travels. Yacht crew are “approached” by various tax authorities that believe you might be a resident. It’s not down to them to prove that you are a resident in their country, it’s down to you to prove you’re not. Understand the residency laws of the countries where you are most likely to become a resident, then keep a diary and flight ticket stubs, to support your case.

DECEMBER:
If you’ll be in the yachting industry for more than two or three years, seriously consider saving for your future, Your friends on land are paying tax and social security, which will give them something at retirement – are you? It’s up to all crew to put something aside (I suggest at least 25 percent of salary) while they’re in the industry to try and secure their financial wellbeing. The million dollar rule – to retire on an income of $/€3,OOO per month in 15 years, you will need approximately $/€1.1million in assets.

Personal Financial Planning in France – if I knew then what I know now…

By Jonathan Cooper
This article is published on: 9th February 2016

09.02.16

A British National, I came to France in 1996 for what was meant to be a 3-year local contract. But here I am, still living in France 20 years later. Sound familiar?

This year, at the age of 57, I stopped full-time employment, though I expect to stay in France for some years to come. Here are a just few of the useful things I’ve learned over the years, as an expat in France, focusing on tips for those of you who are still relatively new to France.

Tax efficient investment vehicles
The ISA doesn’t exist in France, but the Plan d’Epargne en Actions (PEA) and the Assurance Vie (AV) do. One can invest 150k euros in a PEA, and after 5 years the gains are free from Capital Gains Tax (CGT). There is no limit to the number or amount invested for AV’s, and after 8 years, any gains on withdrawal attract only 7.5% tax (over 9200 euros/yr). Both PEA’s and AV’s attract Social Charges on investment gains. With present interest rates low, an AV older than eight years is a much better option than a savings account (Compte Epargne). Your employer might also offer you a Plan d’Epargne d’Enterprise (PEE) where investment gains are free from CGT after 5 years.

My advice to anyone becoming tax resident in France is to open a PEA and an AV as soon as you arrive, with just a small initial investment, just to get the clock ticking. You can always close them if your short term contract turns out to be just that!

Pensions, QROPS & PERPs
Years worked in the UK can be transferred to the French system, and additional years purchased at little cost, which can greatly increase the value of your French Pension.

With the 15-year Gilt Rate presently so low, UK pension pot valuations are very high. If you are thinking of staying overseas, it is a good time to consider the Pro’s and Con’s of transferring your pot to a Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme (QROPS).

Each year you can invest up to 10% of your salary free of income tax (within the maximum of 8 times the Social Security ceiling) in a Plan d’Epargne de Retraite (PERP), and you can accumulate up to 3 years if you do not use this 10% annual allowance. If you have been made redundant, at the end of the 3-year period of unemployment benefit, you can withdraw all the funds from a PERP free of CGT, so avoiding taking an annuity. Investments in a PERP are not subject to Wealth Tax (ISF).

Getting good, in-depth financial advice
I have always worked with one of the big French Banks and whilst they offer a range of products, their understanding of the needs of Anglo-Saxons is not always high. They recommend mainly in-house products and could be a lot more pro-active.

My employers were kind enough to offer me big consultancy companies to help fill out my annual French tax forms. The introductory meetings with senior directors always went well, but it was clear the forms were filled out by very junior staff, and their aim was to fulfil a service to the employer as much as to me – they are not at all there to offer advice and optimise tax.

Whilst it’s taken me a while to realise, it’s best to seek the assistance of specialist independent financial advisers, people who really understand both the UK and French financial space. I like to have more than one, in addition to the bank, to ensure several points of view/proposals on which to base decisions.

From experience, I can certainly recommend Jon Cooper (The Spectrum IFA Group) and Thierry Mandengue (VIP Partner) – they have undoubtedly saved me tens of thousands of euros.

In my next article, I will share my knowledge of Stock Options, PEE’s and Inheritance planning. I’d be happy to discuss expat finance further if anyone is interested (mspowell58@gmail.com).

*This article has been written by Dr. Martin Powell, a retired, British, Senior Corporate Executive living in France and a client of Jonathan Cooper

The trends for 2016 – The view from the Gondola.

By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 27th January 2016

27.01.16

We have just returned from our annual Spectrum Conference, this year 30 advisers headed to the stunningly beautiful city of Venice.

With two days set aside for discussion and rumination over global markets and other financial changes and issues… in retrospect it seems incredibly well timed…. up to the day of departure for Venice, from the start of 2016, stock markets had fallen between 8 and 15% and Brent Crude Oil was down 20%.

So could we come back from this conference with a view on whether this highly volatile trend was to continue and was this really the end of the world? Well… yes we could.

We are very lucky to be part of a company large enough to access the resources from some of the biggest and best names in our business and they all presented fairly similar views on where we are and where we might be going, and they can all be summarised by looking at 3 main trends and a few smaller issues:

OIL, CHINA, INTEREST RATES and then EMPLOYMENT and BREXIT… so with enormous thanks to companies like Blackrock, Henderson Global Investors, Jupiter, Kames Capital, Rathbones and Tilney Bestinvest, let’s try and look at how these might affect us all.

  • If you believe that there is a global recession around the corner… then sell everything and stay in cash! – We don’t!
  • Is this like 2008? NO, but we could talk ourselves into it! The Global Macro scene is not that
  • Markets will now move to looking at “growth” rather than being “policy” led like from 2009 to 2015. (eg QE etc)
  • GDP growth is at its strongest since 2010.
  • Divergence is increasing around the world (ie. end of QE in US, but increase of QE in Europe).

THE MAIN ISSUES:

CHINA the bulk of the slowdown is now behind us, in fact China have been doing exactly what we, as the developed world, have been asking them to do for the last few years… i.e. devaluing their currency and switching to a new ‘consumption based economy’ – this all makes good economic sense BUT their communication has been poor and the ‘fiddling’ in their stock markets has not been appreciated. The economic growth rate is stabilising and as the ‘new’ tech lead, consumer economy becomes greater therefore slowdown in the ‘old’ commodity heavy manufacturing economy will matter less to the overall rate. 4 – 6% GDP growth per year is realistic for the foreseeable future… it’s still a very good growth rate, especially for the biggest economy in the world.

When China was growing at 12%, it was 1/5th size it is now… the relative amount of GDP in real terms is significantly greater now than it was then… the headline rate, might be just that… a headline in a newspaper but the over-reaction to the inevitable slowdown has been pronounced.

OIL – massive sell off through 2015… Not due to drop in demand but due to oversupply… “The Saudis are telling the US to ‘frack’ off, they want to put the US Shale gas business out of business”

BUT – the break-even cost of extraction has dropped from $110 per barrel in 2011 to $34 per barrel now, so the US can afford lower prices for longer. Some countries must keep production high just to maintain some revenues; they can’t afford to stop, even at these low prices. … This is becoming a ‘who blinks first’ situation and is all about power and geopolitics rather than normal market influences.

Low oil prices can help consumption-lead economies (New china, US, Europe etc).

INTEREST RATES – Not this year’s problem as rate changes don’t affect the economy for 12 to 24 months. The market is pricing in for at least two more US rate rises…. there is now less consensus opinion on whether this is now correct. Policy on rates is diverging across the world, US and UK increase, EU stable but with lots of QE and EM likely to decrease.

The best environment for equity market growth is when rates are rising AND growth is rising BUT rising interest rates can mean more stock market volatility as well.

Other Issues;

EMPLOYMENT – conditions are right for wage growth, especially in the US, where unemployment has fallen faster than expected. If wage growth comes through then individuals tend to spend rather than save (unlike companies) and this can lead to price inflation and further growth.

BREXIT – don’t believe the hype… if UK votes to leave the EU then there will still be 2 years of protracted negotiations as to how they leave. There are major concerns for the Finance Industry which is one of the UK’s biggest industries and cross border regulation AFTER leaving the EU could have very deep effects.

Likely to be a SOFT BREXIT or a HARD BREXIT, both lead to different scenarios playing out. Likely to be greater volatility in UK markets and GBP in the run up to the referendum but no specific trend either way.

OVERALL STRATEGY – CONCENSUS from the experts:

  1. Still preference for allocation to EQUITIES
  2. Probably add in more ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS or ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGIES over more in bonds.
  3. EMERGING MARKETS not ready – JUST YET!!!
  4. GOLD could be a good small hedge
  5. USD to remain strong

So overall, as a member of the Spectrum Fund committee, an investor myself and an adviser to my clients, I feel that the world isn’t over and it isn’t 2008 again. There are good shoots of growth in many markets and even with the “slow down” in China they are still the major engine for growth across the world. Many companies (and this is after all what we are interested in as investors) are healthy still (especially in Europe) and look to be reasonable value.

2016 is going to be volatile but we will make it through and there could be some surprises along the way. Since we arrived in Venice, until today, Oil is up 7% and most markets are up between 1% and 4%!!

The UK referendum on the EU – Lose your vote or use it!

By David Hattersley
This article is published on: 20th January 2016

20.01.16

In the words of Edmund Burke, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men, to do nothing.”

For the sake of equality I will add women as well! But, perhaps this is the greatest test of democracy that my generation has faced, and some of us, either through neglect or lack of knowledge, do not realise what we can do, as expat individuals. To simplify matters, detailed below are the facts. It is up to each individual to take the required action. I am including links to the relevant websites so you can get the full details if you require.

From the Electoral Commission’s website, it clearly states that British citizens living abroad for more than 15 years are not eligible to register to vote in UK elections.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/can-i-still-vote-if-i-move-overseas

On the aboutmyvote.co.uk website it states that registered overseas voters will be able to vote in the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. The date of the referendum has not been announced yet but it is scheduled to happen before the end of 2017.”

http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register-to-vote/british-citizens-living-abroad

If you visit https://www.gov.uk/voting-when-abroad, this site gives clear guidelines on how to register your vote as an overseas voter under British Citizens moving abroad, provided that this is done within 15 years of leaving the UK.

Alternatively, one can register on the following site. It only takes 5 minutes, but you will need your old address including post code, passport number and National Insurance number.

https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/register-to-vote/country-of-residence?_ga=1.161822076.117065480.1450435369

Renewing you registration will then need an Annual Declaration. This is based on the Electoral Commission document dated March 2010 and can be viewed as below. The specific section is;

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0011/43958/Part-F-Special-category-electors-March-2010.pdf

“2.21 Consequently, entries may be made or registration renewed after the end of the 15-year period where the applicant meets the application deadline as set out above. Accepted applications last for a full 12 months in all cases unless: they have been cancelled by the elector; the elector is added as an ordinary Parliamentary elector or in pursuance of a declaration other than as an overseas elector; or it is found that the elector should never have been registered through the above procedures (i.e. as a result of an objection or review).”

For those that are less fortunate than myself and many others, an alternative for those that do not qualify can register their protest on the following website;

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/111271

This is not only about us as individuals, but about the freedom of choice for our children and grandchildren.

Do not waste your voice !