Measuring investment performance

By Mark Quinn
This article is published on: 11th April 2022

11.04.22

There are several different ways of measuring your investment performance, and I will run through some simple tips to allow you to dig deeper into your portfolio.

Firstly, do not forget to factor in fees such as adviser and management fees and structure costs when looking at returns. I have seen the cost of some investments run as high as 4% p.a. through hidden commissions and explicit charges. These have been disguised by strong market performance over recent years, but are likely to be exposed if we experience leaner years in markets in the future.

Simple benchmarking
A simple and quick method of comparison is looking at interest rates on cash accounts. If your investment returns are generating the same returns as cash on deposit, why are you taking the market risk?

Similarly, take into account inflation. If you generate a 3% return and inflation is 2%, your net return is just 1%; is this what you thought you were achieving?

Lastly, look at what similar passive investments have done. These types of funds simply track a stock market index and are inexpensive. If you are paying a fund manager to outperform and add value by trying to achieve higher returns, have they done this?

More in-depth methods

Market indices
A market index tracks the performance of a group of shares or other investments e.g. the S&P 500 index which tracks the performance of the largest 500 shares in America. They can be a useful barometer for the ‘health’ of an investment market as a whole but it is important to use them appropriately.

For example, you cannot meaningfully compare the performance of the S&P 500 index (100% shares) with a portfolio that consists only 40% of shares. Similarly if you are comparing a euro denominated portfolio with the US market which is denominated in dollars, then again this is not necessarily an appropriate comparison.

The downsides of using indices as a comparison are therefore addressed by the use of:

Peer group
A peer group allows you to compare investments that are similar in nature e.g. a specific class of investments or geographical region, and because you are comparing “like for like” it can be a more meaningful comparison tool.

Morningstar.com is a particularly useful tool in this respect and can guide investors with regard to an appropriate benchmark and peer group.

Quartile rankings
These are used to compare returns of investments in the same category over a period of time. Investments in the top 25% are assigned quartile rank 1, the next 25% quartile 2 etc.

They can be useful in tracking consistency – what is important is not the quartile ranking in any one period, but they allow you to track trends over multiple periods and time frames.

There is no one way, or right way, to compare performance and you will likely need to combine several measures to get a more accurate reflection of performance. Even more importantly, this should be done regularly to ensure you are doing all you can to achieve your financial goals. Finally, you should take into account the risk you are taking to achieve a set level of return, and this will be the focus of a future article.

If you would like to discuss your performance or how best to build your own portfolio of investments, please get in touch.

Wealth Tax in Catalonia

By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 7th April 2022

07.04.22

How to reduce it and know how it works

Catalonia is a great place to live for so many reasons. However, like the majority of places in the world, there are taxes to pay too. Although nobody likes to pay taxes, there is a societal need for them. They help fund the public health system, providing care for our families and for ourselves in later life, schools, so our children can receive a formal education and roads, so we can safely and effectively travel. However, in spite of this there are ways in which we can organise our taxes in an efficient manner to ensure that we are paying no more than the amount that we need to pay.

The Wealth Tax (known as ‘El Impuesto de Patrimonio’ in Spanish) is an example of a tax which is an additional tax in Catalonia that many people deem to perhaps be unfair. I mean, why should you pay tax just because you have done well in life, or your parents have and passed this wealth onto you? In summary, it is a tax that you pay on your net wealth (assets owned minus liabilities). The tax is paid on the assets that you hold which fall over a certain threshold. The threshold in Catalonia is €500,000 whilst the threshold throughout the rest of Spain is €700,000. There is a €300,000 exemption for your main residence, meaning that you will not pay tax on your main residence if it is valued under this amount. If your main residence is worth more, you can deduct €300,000 from the valuation and you will only be liable to wealth tax on the excess amount.

Here is a list of the assets that are and aren’t liable to Wealth Tax in Catalonia:

Assets that Wealth Tax is applicable to	Assets that Wealth Tax is not applicable to
Real estate	Household contents (except for Art)
Savings	Shareholdings in family companies
Shares	Commercial Assets
Cars	Intellectual Property and Pension Rights
Boats
Jewellery
Art

Source: Balcell’s Group

The rate of wealth tax depends on the amount by which you are over the threshold. The general rule is that it ranges from 0.20% to 2.50% in Spain. However, in Catalonia the rate is slightly higher, ranging from 0.21% to 2.75%. You are required to declare your wealth as part of your annual declaration (in Spanish, ‘Declaración de la Renta’) on form 714 at the end of the calendar year, making any payment by 30th June the following year. The below tables display the Wealth Tax rates for Spain as a whole and the variation of the wealth tax to pay depending on the autonomous community (Communidad Autonomo) in which you reside. However, this is an overview to what is a complex calculation, so if you require personalised information, please get in contact with Chris.

Yes, I would like to arrange a call to discuss my personal situation

Settlement basis up to (euros)	Fee (Euros)	Other net base up to (euros)	Applicable Rate %
0.00	0.00	167,129.45	0.20%
167,129.45	334.26	167,123.43	0.30%
334,252.88	835.63	334,246.87	0.50%
668,499.75	2,506.86	668,499.76	0.90%
1,336,999.51	8,523.36	1,336,999.50	1.30%
2,673,999.01	25,904.35	2,673,999.02	1.70%
5,347,998.03	71,362.33	5,347,998.03	2.10%
10,695,996.06	183,670.29	Thereafter	2.50%

Source: Balcell’s Group

Autonomous Community	Wealth Tax % Variation
Catalonia	Between 0.21% and 2.75%
Asturias	Between 0.22% and 3%
Region of Murcia	Between 0.24% and 3%
Adalusia	Between 0.24% and 3.03%
Community of Valencia	Between 0.25% and 3.12%
Balearics	Between 0.28% and 3.45%
Extremadura	Between 0.30% and 3.75%

Source: Balcell’s Group

There are ways in which you can mitigate the wealth tax you are required to pay, as noted in the above table, some assets are exempt. Therefore, if you transfer your wealth into these assets then they will not be included as part of your wealth tax calculation. For example, you may not be liable to wealth tax on assets that you transfer to shareholdings in family businesses or certain household or commercial assets.

However, this is not a straightforward process and certain criteria must be met. For example, if you transfer your capital to a ‘family business’, then there are strict regulations on what constitutes a family business, which assets qualify and how you do this. And if you were to utilise your capital to purchase household contents, certain items such as art are not exempt.

Another way to mitigate wealth tax is by relocating. There are a few countries in Europe in which you would not have to pay the wealth tax such as Sweden, Luxembourg, Denmark, Germany and Austria or France. In the UK, they are considering implementing a wealth tax. If you prefer to stay in Spain, then residents of Madrid are exempt from wealth tax so it may be beneficial relocating there.

Finally, you can effectively double your wealth tax exemption threshold by getting married! The wealth tax exemption threshold will then be increased as everyone person is entitled to it. This also counts for the main residence allowance; therefore you may not be liable on wealth tax on your main residence up to €600,000.

Being efficient with your monies/assets from a tax perspective is almost as important as making your money grow. If you would like to seek specialist advice, Chris Burke is able to review your pensions, investments and other assets and evaluate your current tax liabilities, with the potential to make them more tax effective moving forward. If you would like to find out more or to talk through your situation and receive expert, factual advice, don’t hesitate to get in touch with Chris via the form below, or make a direct virtual appointment here.

Disclaimer: Spectrum IFA do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.

Yes, I would like to arrange a call to discuss my personal situation

Financial planning for women

By Victoria Lewis
This article is published on: 6th April 2022

06.04.22

Does it have to be different and what are the nuances in terms of goals, investment outlook and risk and why is it even assumed that it needs to be different?

Victoria Lewis from The Spectrum IFA Group was recently asked to speak about this subject by the ‘Network Provence‘

Network Provence is a platform for women to promote their business, blog, club, project and to socialise. Networking allows one to socialise, meet potential clients and often offers possibilities to collaborate with other like-minded women on a variety of projects.

Victoria spoke about financial planning for women and some of the difficulties they face. Whatever your gender, if you live in France (or are planning a move here) and are interested in obtaining a confidential review of your financial situation, please contact Victoria.lewis@spectrum-ifa.com + +33 (0) 6 62 50 70 21.’

Please watch the video below

Planning for Non-Habitual Residence | Portugal

By Mark Quinn
This article is published on: 4th April 2022

04.04.22

The Non-Habitual Residence (NHR) scheme has been a great success in attracting new residents to Portugal seeking a favourable tax regime and is also the ‘icing on the cake’ for those moving to Portugal for lifestyle reasons.

NHR is a preferential tax status granted by the Portuguese government to new residents and lasts 10 years. I will not write about the specific benefits as we have produced a dedicated NHR guide which is available on our website. Rather, I wanted the focus of this article to be on the planning that is required because the benefits of NHR are not automatic; you have to plan to make the scheme work for your specific situation and objectives.

When talking with clients, I break down the planning required into three phases: prior to arrival, during the NHR period, and following the expiry of the NHR status.

The planning required before arriving in Portugal involves:

Utilising any tax breaks and exemptions in your home country. For example, in a UK context, you may wish to close any investments you have that work from a UK perspective but are not efficient in Portugal such as Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs). ISAs are tax free in the UK, but if you wait until you establish residency in Portugal to surrender, you are likely to incur unnecessary taxation
If you are relocating from countries such as the UAE or Singapore, you may wish to consider realising capital gains prior to departure
Considering taking advantage of your Pension Commencement Lump Sum entitlement (25% tax free cash) from pension schemes, as this is lost when you become a Portuguese resident

Download my guides on moving to Portugal here

Planning for Non-Habitual Residence in Portugal

During the NHR period it is important to:

Maximise pension income opportunities as NHRs benefit from a flat tax rate of 10% as opposed to rates of 20%, 40% and 45% in the UK. There is even the argument that any pension schemes should be fully depleted during the 10 year window, although this does have to be balanced against the inheritance tax efficiency of retaining money within a pension scheme
Plan well in advance of the 10 year period and ideally look to establish structures that can be effective post NHR. If your position does not allow for immediate restructuring and is tax efficient under NHR but not post-NHR e.g. property portfolios, you should start reviewing your position again around years 7-8 of the NHR period to prepare for life after NHR
Review your affairs regularly to take account of personal, family or legislative changes
For those of you taking salaries or a combination of salary and dividends from companies in the UK, you may wish to re-weight the focus to a dividend only strategy

After the end of the NHR period, you become a standard Portuguese tax resident and will pay tax at the prevailing rates. The effectiveness of your position is determined by the planning you have implemented during the first two periods.

A few caveats for you to consider:

There are subtle nuances to the NHR scheme and international tax rules meaning that in some cases it may be in your best interest not to apply for the NHR regime
For those of you enjoying the 0% tax rate on pension income (which applied to NHRs prior to April 2020), the planning will differ
If you are a non-UK domicile, there are further issues and tax-saving opportunities to consider, and again, delicate planning is required in this area to ensure success

As always please seek advice early and as the only UK Tax Adviser and Chartered Financial Planner in Portugal, I can analyse your situation from both a UK context and Portuguese perspective.

Download my guides on moving to Portugal here

Difficult questions your financial adviser may not want to answer

By Mark Quinn
This article is published on: 30th March 2022

30.03.22

I like being asked tough questions –

It shows that clients have a real grasp of the key issues involved, which is great. It forces me to regularly reconsider the advice I give, and to make sure it continues to be the very best and most cost-effective solution. Also, and speaking from bitter personal experience of poor, disjointed advice I received in an area on which I am not au fait (renovating my property), I truly believe that clients are in a much more powerful position if they are aware of all the salient facts and issues.

With that in mind, and to put you in the most powerful position in your existing adviser relationship, I would start by getting the answers to the following:

Are you truly impartial or are you restricted to only recommending certain structures and funds? I come across many clients with the same structure managed by the same investment manager. How can one structure and fund be the most appropriate for all clients with a wide variety of issues and situations?
What qualifications do you have to advise? When you visit a professional one assumes they are qualified and good at what they do. It is remarkable therefore that many ‘advisers’ operate in Portugal without qualifications, and some even purport themselves to be tax advisers who do not have any formal tax qualifications. Those coming from the UK may be aware that ‘Chartered Financial Planner’ is the gold standard for advising clients, and ‘level 4’ is the minimum level of qualification required to advise.
How much am I being charged? One of the most damaging issues to the performance of your portfolio are the charges that are being taken from your policy. Many times, these are ‘bundled’ or paid discreetly out of the back end of the product. Ask for an explicit breakdown in writing between each fund’s ‘Ongoing Fund Charge’, product/structure charges and the fees or commissions your adviser is taking, and from where.

Find out more about Mark Quinn here

Have you disclosed the full charges to me? If not, why not? This is a contentious issue for some firms at present as, due to an EU directive, they now have to inform clients if they have not disclosed the true costs of the investments that they have set up and managed for them; obviously leading to many disgruntled people and tainted trust in the advisory relationship.
What is my number? Does your adviser tell you how long your money will currently last and under what conditions? Do they paint of picture of different scenarios and how these would impact this projection? Or how you can tweak your planning to achieve your goals?
How much risk am I taking? People often focus and compare the returns they might achieve but neglect to consider the level of risk their adviser is taking with their money. For example, two portfolios can achieve 5% a year return, but fund 1 may be down 50% at any point during the year, and fund 2 just 10% – clearly these two are very different investments, with fund 2 being superior.
Is my fund outperforming a tracker fund? One chooses to invest in a fund if the manager has a proven ability to deliver attractive returns relative to the market, and for this you pay the fund manager a fee, typically around 1% per annum. But are they doing their job and is it worth the cost? A 0.5% reduction in fees may sound trivial, but I recently showed a client they could save in excess of £200,000 in fees over time.

If you would like an independent analysis of your position,
it would be our pleasure to help you.

Spanish tax on UK property

By John Hayward
This article is published on: 29th March 2022

29.03.22

In February I wrote about the impact on investments with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation rearing its ugly head. For the last month or so, the movement of global stock markets has attracted comparisons to a violin player’s arm joint and the undergarments of a professional lady. This is possibly the future for investments for a while although there appears to be more positive than negative movement (at the time of writing in case there has been a sudden catastrophe).

In the meantime, away from the uncertainty of how much a tank of fuel will cost in 6 months’ time, I want to mention something regarding Spanish tax on UK property.

31st March 2022. The end of the declaration period for everyone’s favourite, the Modelo 720. Although this is not a tax declaration, it does highlight assets and how these might be taxed in the future, whether this be capital gains tax, wealth tax, inheritance tax, or income tax. Focusing on the latter, I believe that it is generally not appreciated that a tax resident in Spain has to pay income tax on a UK property, even if it is not rented out.

Download your guide to tax in Spain here

It is (fairly) well known that, if you are a not tax resident in Spain, and you own a property in Spain, and you receive rental income, you have to pay Non-Resident Income Tax (NRIT) or Non-Resident Imputed Income Tax (NRIIT) if you do not receive rental income, perhaps both depending on how much of the tax year (1st January to 31st December) it is rented out. Imputed rent is a fictional amount of rent that the Spanish tax office decides is what you are receiving based on the cadastral value. It works the other way around. That is, if you are a tax resident in Spain with a UK property, and you do not rent it out, you still have to pay tax on the imputed rent.

How is the tax calculated? UK properties do not have a thing called a cadastral value. Some have said on the (not always reliable) worldwide web that it would be the rateable value that would be used. The actual rule is that, if there is no cadastral value, the tax is based on 50% of the original purchase price with the application of a rate of 1.1%. That gives you the imputed rent. It is this figure that would be used for income tax purposes.

For some people, this may not introduce a problem, especially when considering the double tax treaty between the UK and Spain. It is the fact that those who should have been declaring this “income” have not been and my message could prompt a chat with their tax agent. The Spanish tax office is regularly sweeping up what they (or their computer) see as outstanding items, often up to 4 years old in line with Spain’s statute of limitations.

Contact me today for more information on how we can help you to protect your assets from unnecessary taxation and make more from your money, protecting your income streams against inflation and low interest rates, or for any other financial and tax planning information, at john.hayward@spectrum-ifa.com or call or WhatsApp (+34) 618 204 731.

Moving to Portugal post Brexit | Visa options for UK nationals

By Mark Quinn
This article is published on: 28th March 2022

28.03.22

Whether you are ‘for’ or ‘against’, Brexit has had a wide-ranging impact on our daily lives.

A major consequence has been to the rights of British nationals to move freely around Europe to travel, live and work; especially so for those with holiday homes who now find themselves limited to 90 days in every 180.

To be clear, if you are an EU citizen, you have the right to freedom of movement and can therefore come and go as you please. So, what are the options for those Brits lucky enough to be able to commit to a permanent move to Portugal? You will have to apply for a visa.

Portugal has made it fairly easy to qualify for a visa by offering several options, obviously wanting to continue to attract foreigners to boost investment in the country. The most common are the Golden Visa (residency by investment) and the D7 visa (residency by passive income).

Both visas allow non-EU/EEA or Swiss citizens and their families to live, study and work in Portugal and ultimately apply for permanent residence or Portuguese citizenship. They also allow access to the Portuguese healthcare and education system, as well as free access to the Schengen area, and are a gateway into the advantageous Non-Habitual Residence (NHR) tax scheme.

The key difference between the two programs comes down to one of cost versus flexibility.

Validity
The Golden Visa (GV) is initially valid for 2 years. This can be renewed, and the renewal permits are valid for 3 years. After 5 years, you can apply for permanent residency or citizenship, or you can continue to renew the GV every 3 years. Your family can also obtain permits and the same benefits.

The D7 visa is valid for a stay of 4 months. After this, you apply for a D7 residence permit that will allow a stay of up to 2 years and this can be renewed for a further 3 years. After 5 years you can apply for permanent residence or citizenship. Your family can also obtain permits and the same benefits, assuming minimum criteria are met.

Minimum financial commitment
The GV has one of the lowest ‘residency by investment’ thresholds in Europe. There are many investment options, but the most commonly used is investment in real estate of at least €500,000. Changes at the start of 2022 restricted the location of the property purchase to low-density areas, excluding metropolitan and coastal areas such as Lisbon, Porto and much of the Algarve.

The D7 visa only requires the applicant to prove a minimum level of income equal to the Portuguese minimum wage. This can be in the form of dividends, rent, interest or pensions. If they are also supporting family, an additional 50% for a spouse and 30% for each child is required.

Minimum stay & tax dimension
The GV has a short minimum stay period in Portugal of only 7 days in the first year and 14 days in subsequent years. This is ideal for those who might not wish to trigger tax residency.

The D7 has a minimum stay of 6 months, therefore triggering tax residency.

If tax residency is triggered, you can apply for the NHR scheme which can result in substantial tax savings.

Cost of applications
Excluding 3rd party fees, the GV is approximately €5,900 for the main applicant and €5,400 per additional family member. Renewal is approximately €2,668 per person.

The D7 fees are much lower at approximately €255 per applicant and family member. Renewal is approximately €165 per applicant and family member.

Donwload our guides on moving to Portugal here

Planning for Non-Habitual Residence in Portugal

By Mark Quinn
This article is published on: 21st March 2022

21.03.22

When talking with clients, I break down the planning required into three phases: prior to arrival, during the NHR period, and following the expiry of the NHR status.

The planning required before arriving in Portugal involves:

Utilising any tax breaks and exemptions in your home country. For example, in a UK context, you may wish to close any investments you have that work from a UK perspective but are not efficient in Portugal such as Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs). ISAs are tax free in the UK, but if you wait until you establish residency in Portugal to surrender, you are likely to incur unnecessary taxation
If you are relocating from countries such as the UAE or Singapore, you may wish to consider realising capital gains prior to departure
Considering taking advantage of your Pension Commencement Lump Sum entitlement (25% tax free cash) from pension schemes, as this is lost when you become a Portuguese resident

During the NHR period it is important to:

Maximise pension income opportunities as NHRs benefit from a flat tax rate of 10% as opposed to rates of 20%, 40% and 45% in the UK. There is even the argument that any pension schemes should be fully depleted during the 10 year window, although this does have to be balanced against the inheritance tax efficiency of retaining money within a pension scheme
Plan well in advance of the 10 year period and ideally look to establish structures that can be effective post NHR. If your position does not allow for immediate restructuring and is tax efficient under NHR but not post-NHR e.g. property portfolios, you should start reviewing your position again around years 7-8 of the NHR period to prepare for life after NHR
Review your affairs regularly to take account of personal, family or legislative changes
For those of you taking salaries or a combination of salary and dividends from companies in the UK, you may wish to re-weight the focus to a dividend only strategy

A few caveats for you to consider:

There are subtle nuances to the NHR scheme and international tax rules meaning that in some cases it may be in your best interest not to apply for the NHR regime
For those of you enjoying the 0% tax rate on pension income (which applied to NHRs prior to April 2020), the planning will differ
If you are a non-UK domicile, there are further issues and tax-saving opportunities to consider, and again, delicate planning is required in this area to ensure success

As always please seek advice early and as the only UK Tax Advisers and Chartered Financial Planners in Portugal, we can analyse your situation from both a UK context and Portuguese perspective.

Download our guides here

Ukraine – stockmarkets’ reaction

By John Lansley
This article is published on: 10th March 2022

10.03.22

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February shocked the world and the brutal treatment of Ukrainians continues to instill horror and a feeling of helplessness. The world was beginning to breathe a collective sigh of relief about Covid’s impact diminishing, but now there is a new emergency threatening not just Ukraine but also the wider global community.

How it plays out is anyone’s guess and the purpose of this note is not to try to add to the comment and analysis we are reading every day, but to attempt to put into perspective how it has affected global stockmarkets, and hence people’s wealth. The major markets are indeed down compared with the end of December –

FTSE100 -6.5%
DowJones -9.7%
NASDAQ -18%
Eurostoxx -18.3%

(Note that the blue chip FTSE100 and DowJones indices have fallen less than 10%, whereas the tech-heavy NASDAQ has fallen much more, after its huge gains in the last couple of years. Europe is a lot closer to the war of course.)

But not all of these falls are due to the attack – markets had fallen already due to fears over increasing inflation, and a certain amount of profit-taking, but it’s true that from late-January the tension due to the increasing Russian rhetoric and the amassing of troops near the Ukrainian border was causing uncertainty, and that markets were becoming increasingly volatile. Most thought that the situation would be diffused – how could Putin possibly risk global stability by going ahead with his war?

Looking back two years, we all remember what we were doing as the first Covid restrictions were announced, back in late March 2020. Stock markets fell quickly. Between the highs of late January/early February of that year and the 20th March, the falls rivalled the crash in October 1987 –

FTSE100 -32.4%
DowJones -34.7%
NASDAQ -29.3%
Eurostoxx -33.7%

There followed a slow but steady recovery, with the UK and Europe generally restoring all the lost ground since then by the end of 2021, US blue chip companies gaining much more and the NASDAQ, with its tech-laden businesses, peaking at 233% higher than 20.3.20.

What am I saying?
The invasion of Ukraine is indeed a horrible affair, but so far the major markets of blue chip companies have fallen far less than when Covid first threatened the world. Portfolio valuations will have fallen of course, but most contain not just shares but also other types of investment that will not have fallen quite as much as stock markets themselves, and so most clients will not be seeing falls such as the headline figures above.

As was the case during the early stages of the Covid pandemic, fund managers and portfolio managers were very active in trying to reposition their portfolios to reduce exposure to problem areas and at the same time taking advantage of sectors that might benefit from the new financial climate, such as online businesses. At times like these, portfolio managers really earn their salaries and the results will reveal their successes and failures.

Yes, these are difficult times, and, as an investor myself, I appreciate how easy it is to feel threatened by events outside my control. But I am confident that the professionals who are looking after our money will continue to do so to the best of their ability.

If you would like to discuss these issues further, or if you have any questions relating to financial planning and how to invest safely as a resident of Spain, do please contact me.

Investing During War Times

By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 7th March 2022

07.03.22

Off the back of the current situation in Ukraine, many of my clients have been asking me what this means for their investment and pension portfolios. Irrespective of the size and scope of the conflict, any declaration of war has global repercussions. Instability in one area of the world will result in a ripple effect, effecting other areas of the world regardless of the countries involved. Yes, this is likely to affect your investments and your pensions but the key takeaway is that you should not worry. If you are panicking, please reach out to me and we can have a conversation about it. There are even areas of opportunity in war times and stocks in certain sectors have even bucked the trend and outperformed. In this article, I will discuss investing in war times, including the current conflict in Ukraine, and the impact that this has on the stock market performance and the wider economy.

The Current Conflict in Ukraine
In the case of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the heavy sanctions inflicted on Russia already have and will continue to heavily effect the global economy. The sanctions are amongst the harshest sanctions ever imposed on a country, and include preventing the Russian Government from accessing up to 600 billion USD in foreign cash reserves which they hold in foreign banks around the world, banning Russia from SWIFT (thus preventing Russians from using various credit and debit cards to make payments) and the freezing of the assets of some Russian individuals around the world ranging from bank accounts, property and even private yachts.

Various multinational companies have also ceased or reduced their operations in Russia (at least temporarily). For example, Apple have closed their Russian stores, Shell and BP have sold their stakes or abandoned their Russian operations and a magnitude of aviation companies such as British Airways, Lufthansa and Boeing have either halted their flights to Russia (note that there have also been significant alterations to the accessibility of international airspace) or in Boeing’s case, suspended parts, maintenance and technical support for Russian airlines.

The conflict does not solely impact the Russian economy. A large number of countries throughout the world export products to Russia. If this is no longer possible, then they will see a reduction in profits, which will then go on to affect their balance sheet. Furthermore, many countries in the world import products from Russia. The key product in this case is oil, a vital energy source. Although the supply of oil has not yet been cut, we have already seen a rise in petrol prices in many countries such as the UK. Other popular Russian products such as vodka are likely to be hit. Due to the decrease in supply, we are likely to see both shortages and a rise in price of Russian products such as vodka.

However, it is very difficult to predict exactly what will happen. For this reason, when making personal finance related decisions it is recommended that you engage in a professional discussion with a professional financial adviser. In times of war in particular, it is recommended that people seek the advice of an expert to help them manage their portfolios.

Previous Wars and Their Impact on Stock Market Performance
It’s important that we consider previous wars and the impact that they had on the stock market. Some civil wars and internal conflicts, such as those in Sierra Leone (1991-2002) and the Central African Republic in 2013, caused severe disturbances in those countries’ economies. However, from a global perspective, these wars did not cause disturbances in the stock market of first-world nations such as the USA. On the other hand, large-scale wars such as World War 1 and 2 did effect the US market, even before the US entered the conflict.

Global markets in the past operated very differently from how they operate today. For example, prior to World War 1 every country operated independently and the countries that operated in global trade were seen as at ‘gold standard’ level. London was the world’s financial capital and used in this way when a financial centre was necessary, however the requirements and responsibilities were very different when compared to nowadays.

At the close of World War 2, significant changes were made to the global financial system which increased interdependence between countries. The World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) were created, and from then on stocks reacted very differently from World War 1 and World War 2 when conflicts arose.

It’s also important to consider the popularity of the war on the home front and the amount of time in which the war goes on for. For example, the Vietnam War and the Gulf War both saw very different stock market outcomes in the USA due to the difference in popularity of the wars amongst Americans. Furthermore, the Afghanistan War lasted almost 20 years. In this 20 years, the markets saw both highs and lows. Ultimately, the longer a war goes on the less reactive a market is to its influence. A war may start to be seen as a ‘Business as usual’ type of operation.

I created the below table, summarising previous wars and their impact on the economy and stock market performance (I used the Dow Jones stock market as a comparison).

WAR	EFFECT ON ECONOMY
World War 1	Nations that imported more than they exported lost gold reserves, negatively impacting their economies, because the slow economic conditions saw greater demand for exports When Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, what is considered as the start catalyst of the war, the stock market was barely effected When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia in 1914, the Dow Jones dropped by 30% and the market had to close to maintain order and stability. When it opened a few months later, it sawed up by 88% and continued to rise until late 1916 When the US declared War in Germany in 1917, the stock market took a hit and continued trending downwards into 1918. It didn’t recover fully until mid 1919, on the news that the war was over
World War 2	The US was just emerging from the Great Depression in 1939 when the war started. In the early days of the war the Dow Jones increased over 10%, offering hope that the geopolitical environment would put an end to the challenging economic times. However, the conflict started to disrupt international trade and after this initial boost, the market started to fall significantly Rapid action from various impacted Governments around the world prevented the stock market from falling further than it did From 1939 to the end of the war in 1945, the Dow Jones was up 50%. Considering the economic conditions, this was a rather unexpected gain. The gain was put down to the various international cooperation agreements which succeeded in stabilising and growing the US economy
Korean War	The Dow Jones dropped around 5% on the first day – the war was a shock to most investors The recovery was fast, and by the time the war ended in 1953 the Dow Jones was up almost 60%. This is thought to be due to a number of Government policies such as increasing taxes and not borrowing money to fund the war.
Vietnam War	The Dow Jones grew by 43% from the start to the end of the war (1965 to 1973), despite its low popularity However, it was not all plain sailing. The Government’s decisions on funding the war caused inflation, setting off a mild recession in 1970
Gulf War	The Gulf War only lasted for 7 months. Due to its shortness, it is more difficult to separate the changes caused by the conflicts from those related to other world events. For example oil prices increased, causing a brief recession, which is an unusual event for war times When comparing the Gulf War with the previous wars, the US economy has changed a lot. The economy changed from processing natural resources and manufacturing capital goods to primarily knowledge based work (producing information and services). This may have meant that the stock market reacted differently during this war compared to previous wars.
Afghanistan War	The Afghanistan War lasted for almost 20 years, making it difficult to measure the impact of the war There were two crashes (2008 Global Financial Crisis and 2020 Covid Pandemic) which were both followed by quick recoveries, however these were largely unrelated to the war Industries such as Real Estate, Data Processing and Information Services and Computer Systems design and related services saw huge growth, suggesting that the war did not influence them. Shares in industry-leading defense contractors also profited significantly during the war.

Do any Patterns Emerge from Historical Stock Market Performance During War Times?
In the early days, there is certainly volatility. For example, both the FTSE and the Dow Jones took a dip last week (25/02/22) when Russia invaded Ukraine, however both have recovered since then. Logic dictates that this volatility continues throughout war times, however history has shown that this is not always the case. Yes, during pre-war times and at the beginning of a war (especially if there is no escalation period and the war breaks out suddenly without warning) stocks prices tend to decline due to shock and uncertainty. However, once war begins, history has shown that the stock market goes up, as has been the case with the Dow Jones and the FTSE this week (as of 03/03/22).

Generally speaking, there is no need to panic. Panic selling stocks and investments at the start of a war could prove to be a very bad move, considering that early sharp drops tend to be followed by steady gains. However, it is also important to note that the world is changing and that historical patterns may not play out again in future conflicts. Economics and the way in which the stock market behaves is very complex and depends on a variety of internal and external factors such as earnings, valuation, inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth. Regardless of world events, investors should maintain proven strategies to protect and grow portfolios. The best way in which you could do this is to speak with an expert, and have your investment portfolio professionally managed.

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