The reason is that each year’s gain or loss applies to a different balance. A 20% gain followed by a 5% fall turns €100 into €114, not €115. Repeat that pattern and the difference builds up.
This is a mathematical illustration, not an investment offer. No market-based fund can promise 7% every year. The figures exclude fees and taxes, and neither percentage is a forecast.
There is also a distinction worth keeping in mind: a published compound annual return already allows for those ups and downs.
If one investment genuinely compounded at 9% and another at 6% over the same period, with nothing paid in or withdrawn, the 9% investment of course grows more. My point is to look carefully at what the quoted number actually measures.
What changes when you start taking income
Now imagine a couple retiring to Mallorca with €300,000 in savings. Their pension income covers most of the essentials, but they want another €15,000 a year from savings for the rest. This is a hypothetical situation, rather than a client case study, but consider this important point.
They might see €15,000 additional annual income as €1,250 a month towards enjoying retirement. Their investment portfolio, however, has to support these payments through difficult years as well as good ones. Their living expenses will not reduce just because markets have fallen.
Using the same €300,000 starting balance, suppose €15,000 is withdrawn at the end of each year. If the investment falls 20% in year one and gains 30% in year two, €277,500 remains after both withdrawals. Reverse those returns, with the gain first, and €285,000 remains.
That is a €7,500 difference despite identical percentage returns and the same €30,000 taken out. Without withdrawals, both would finish at €312,000.
The technical name for this exposure to uncertainty is sequence-of-returns risk. In everyday language, taking money out after a market fall leaves less invested to benefit from the recovery. The timing of bad years can therefore matter a great deal once your savings are being used to pay the bills.
For our hypothetical couple, I would want to explore how much of that €15,000 they really need, what could be reduced temporarily, and what other accessible savings they have. Those answers help shape a withdrawal plan that is more practical and valuable than an unrealistically optimistic approach to retirement.