Viewing posts from: November 2000
Webinar – Buying your dream home in France
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 6th September 2025
06.09.25
Karen Tait – Host and Presenter
Lisa Greene – French property expert (LEGGETT Immobilier Intl)
Jonathan Watson – Currency Specialist (LUMON)
Paulette Booth – Insurance expert (AXA International)
Tracy Leonetti – Relocation & French admin expert (LBS in France)
Sharon Revol – Mortgage expert (Cafpi)
Peter Brooke – Tax and Wealth Expert (The Spectrum IFA Group)
Join our live webinar about moving to and living in France.
Speak to the experts about the property buying process in France, currencies transactions, insurance, the relocation paperwork…, mortgages in France, plus the all important financial and tax questions about moving to France.
Sign-up to the webinar – and if you have some specific questions, enter them on the form and our panel of experts will do their very best to answer your questions during the webinar on Wednesday 24th September
FEIFA Annual Adviser Conference
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 30th May 2025
30.05.25
I recently attended the FEIFA Annual Adviser Conference in London and wanted to share a brief summary of the latest market insights, along with how advisers are continuing to evolve their approach to best serve clients in today’s environment.
The Federation of European Independent Financial Advisers (FEIFA) – not to be confused with the football governing body! – was founded 16 years ago by a group of experienced IFA firms across Europe. They saw the need for an organisation that could uphold professional standards and represent the interests of advisers and their clients with both industry bodies and regulators across the continent. Spectrum is proud to be one of the original founding members, and we continue to support and build on those standards through our ongoing involvement.
The annual conference brings together FEIFA members and leading industry voices to discuss the unique challenges of advising cross-border clients. As Head of the Spectrum Investment Committee, it remains a valuable and important event in my calendar.
Staying the Course Through Market Volatility
Richard Flood (RBC Brewin Dolphin) reminded us that global events—whether pandemics, wars, or political wrangling —are a constant. Despite this, markets rise over time. The key is to focus on long-term fundamentals rather than react to short-term noise.
Volatility, he stressed, is a normal part of investing and “the price you pay for superior returns.”
Avoiding volatility by sitting in cash is not a good idea either as Inflation diminishes the purchasing power of cash – as illustrated in this Equities v’s Cash ‘inflation adjusted’ performance chart.
Navigating an Uncertain 2025
David Coombs (Rathbones) highlighted the ongoing impact of geopolitical events like Trump’s executive orders and Tariffs on trade and compared them to other countries ‘protectionist policies’ like unbalanced tax rates (eg Ireland), agricultural subsidies (eg France).
He also stressed the unconsidered challenges that passive investments (eg ETFs) pose to market stability due to being “forced sellers & and forced buyers” therefore adding to volatility.
Active management, in his view, remains vital, especially in 2025, and he shared a wonderful example of how active he has been in the last year:
The below chart is the Shopify share price, a share he has held for some time, the red dots are where he sold some shares (trimmed) and the yellow dots are where he added money – this shows that active management is much more than strategically choosing which companies to own or not own, but how to add value through tactical decisions.
The Passive Investing Paradox
Henry Wilson (LGT Wealth Management) discussed the risks of over-reliance on passive funds, including the concentration risk in a few large companies (eg MAG 7). Because of this concentration of returns (and risk) to fewer, larger companies he believes that true diversification is under threat, valuations are higher, future returns are compromised…
… BUT as Harry Markowitz, the architect of Modern Portfolio Theory & Efficient Frontier said “Diversification is the only free lunch to investing”.
Therefore while passive investing remains a useful tool, LGT and Spectrum advocate for highly diversified, actively managed portfolios to help manage risk and improve long-term returns.
If you are going to own passive investments you have to be active with them.
Model Portfolios & Adviser Alpha
Matthew Lamb (Pacific Asset Management) explored the evolution of model portfolios and the increasing role of technology. With many portfolios becoming similar, the real value lies in the advice given—not just the investments chosen.
This fits strongly with my recent newsletter about risk (click here) – If most ‘Balanced’ portfolios are similar to each other and most ‘Growth’ portfolios are similar to each other then the outcome for you, as my client, is not in picking between two balanced funds or two growth funds… it’s ensuring we choose correctly between Balanced or Growth in the first place!!
Good risk profiling conversations make sure we start in the right place.
Planning for the Summer
After almost 13 years, we’re finally heading to Australia for a long-overdue family holiday. We’ll be visiting my wife’s side of the family, who all live in Queensland. She’s been able to make a few trips in that time, but between school schedules, travel costs and a global pandemic, the children and I haven’t been back since 2013. We’ll be away for five weeks from the end of June and are really looking forward to the trip.
I’ll still be checking emails and messages periodically, but if you’d like to catch up — whether by phone, Zoom or in person before we go — please do get in touch or book something in the calendar before Friday 27th June.
All being well, I’ll be back at my desk (with a fair dose of jet lag) on Wednesday 6th August.
Lions V’s Australia
Of course, seeing family and friends is the main priority — but I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t something else I’m particularly excited about.
As a lifelong rugby fan, getting the chance to see the British & Irish Lions take on Australia in both the 1st and 3rd Test Matches — plus the Queensland Reds in early July — is nothing short of a bucket list experience for me.
As always, if there’s anything you’d like to go over before I head off, just let me know. And if anything comes up while I’m away, I’ll do my best to ensure it’s handled smoothly.
Contact me if you have any questions via the below channels, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
Mobile & Whatsapp: +33 6 87 13 68 71
Email: peter.brooke@spectrum-ifa.com
Calendly booking system: https://calendly.com/peterbrooke/30min
Financial Market Update April 2025
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 8th April 2025
08.04.25
Uncertainty leads to Volatility
Quite understandably my inbox has been full of messages from concerned clients and musings from commentators and investment managers about how to respond to the current market reaction to President Trump’s raft of tariffs.
The uncertainty around how these tariffs will play out has led to large falls in stock markets, especially the US.
As discussed in my last newsletter Lets Talk About Risk, volatility is an important and unavoidable part of investing and will be negated by time in the market and can provide great opportunities. The key is to ‘stay the course’ and try and ‘see through the noise’.
However, I did want to get something out to you with some current thoughts about what is happening, what might happen in the near future and why ‘staying the course’ is the best option.
We’ve Been Here Before
When markets turn volatile, perspective is everything.
The past week feels pretty tumultuous but, of course, we’ve been here before.
The table below shows the maximum intra-year drawdowns (DD) and end-of-year total returns (TR) for the S&P 500 from 1950 to 2025.
It reveals that after severe drawdowns, the market has often recovered the full decline and finished the year strongly positive.
Years to Note:
- 1970: Market fell -26% from peak to trough… yet ended +3.6%
- 1975: Dropped -14.1%, but closed the year up +37%
- 1987 (Black Monday): Down -33.5% mid-year, still finished +5.8%
- 2009: Deep in the Global Financial Crisis, dropped -27.6%, yet ended +26.5%
- 2020: COVID crash brought a -33.9% drawdown… ended +18.4%
On each occasion, the best course of action would have been to avoid the noise and stay invested.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
I hope that the above shows that though periods of volatility will always happen and always be temporary it is best to stay the course and try and avoid the noise;
I do appreciate that it is difficult with today’s ‘news’ channels adding to the feeling of panic on an hourly basis so I have shared below some links from firms much closer to the markets to share more detail about what is happening and what investors should consider in these temporarily volatile times.
Traversing Trump tariffs by Daniel Casali, Chief Investment Strategist at Evelyn Partners
Trump’s tariffs: how should investors respond? From Rathbones Investment Management
I would like, once again, to thank these expert commentators and the team at New Horizon Asset Management for their quick and important updates to a challenging situation.
Talk to me
As always, please remember that financial decisions should be made with careful consideration of individual circumstances and professional advice, I am here to support you.
If you have missed any previous news and updates these can all be found on the archive page here.
If you have any questions please use the the below channels, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
Mobile & Whatsapp: +33 6 87 13 68 71
Email: peter.brooke@spectrum-ifa.com
Facebook: Peter Brooke – Financial Advice
Calendly: https://calendly.com/peterbrooke/30min
Understanding Investment Risk
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 30th March 2025
30.03.25
“Risk” is an unavoidable, and sometimes welcome, part of investing so having a better understanding of the different forms of risk can help investors make informed decisions that align with their financial goals. In this (quite long) article, we explore key types of “risks” and how they impact financial planning.
What is RISK?
Definition: The possibility of something bad happening!!
What is INVESTMENT RISK?
Definition: The degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment decision.
So we need to frame our conversations about “RISK” by trying to understand the ‘something bad’ in every decision we make.
Inflation Risk: The risk of doing nothing!
A.K.A. – The Erosion of Purchasing Power
Inflation risk occurs when the value of money declines over time, reducing its purchasing power.
For example, if inflation averages 2.5% per year, €100 will only buy €53.10 of goods in 25 years’ time.
To counteract inflation risk, investors should turn to non-cash assets like shares and bonds, which have historically always outpaced inflation over the long term.
What’s the something bad? – The risk of doing nothing and leaving money in a bank account will guarantee a financial loss over the long term.
Permanent and Total Loss of Capital
Companies can and do ‘go bust’ and for an investor in those company’s shares this would mean a total and permanent loss of capital – the share price falling to zero.
Therefore understanding how a company is managed and investing across a diversified group of high quality companies will minimise this risk.
Outsourcing to a fund manager to diversify this risk is a great way to ‘avoid the losers’ even if you don’t always ‘own all the winners’.
What’s the something bad? – Investing in just one or a few companies and not understanding the ‘fundamentals’ of each investment.
Volatility: Fluctuations in Values
Volatility is often ‘defined’ as RISK with respect to investments.
Volatility refers to short-term fluctuations in the price of an investment; for example a share price.
While dramatic drops can be unsettling, history shows that volatility is entirely normal and markets always recover over time.
For example, look at the chart below; since 1980, the US stock market (S&P 500) has experienced declines averaging 14.1% during each year, yet annual returns were positive in 34 of those 45 years (75%).
The red figures show the largest market drop in value for each year and the grey bars show the total return for that same year… for example 2024 shows a drawdown of 8% but the S&P 500 finished the year 23% up.
Volatility is NORMAL and does NOT mean a capital loss for the long term investor.
Volatility risk is mitigated by TIME in the market
Volatility is part and parcel of investing, and your investment time horizon almost without exception determines the likelihood of investment success. This chart shows the annualised returns over four different time frames (1, 5, 10 and 20 years) using data from 1950 to today.
A 50/50 portfolio of shares and bonds (the green bar) shows that in the last 75 years you could lose up to 24% or gain up to 49% in any given one year period.
However, over every 10 year rolling period in that same 75 years, your worst possible return would be 1% p.a, (ie. no loss) and the best would be 17% p.a.
The longer the investment term, the less relevant volatility becomes, and crucially, the longer the investment term, the greater the likelihood of investment success.
What’s the something bad? – Not maintaining a long-term perspective and reacting impulsively to market swings.
Longevity Risk: Outliving Your Wealth
With increasing life expectancy, investors must consider the risk of outliving their assets.
For a couple aged 65 today there is a 92% chance that one of them will live to 80 and a 49% chance one will live to 90.
Planning for a longer retirement by investing must now include more exposure to growth-oriented assets.
Sequencing Risk/ The Timing of Returns Matters
For retirees or those drawing an income from investments, sequencing risk— the order in which returns occur— can significantly impact portfolio longevity.
A market downturn early in retirement can lead to a faster depletion of funds compared to a downturn later in retirement.
Strategies like maintaining a cash reserve, actively managing portfolio risk as you approach retirement and diversifying investment assets will help.
What’s the something bad? – A market correction just at the point of retirement can significantly impact the quality of that retirement.
ROMO – The Risk Of Missing Out: The Cost of Not Investing
As well as the risk of not keeping up with inflation, there is also a significant risk (and great financial cost) in staying out of the market.
The ‘magic of compounding’ delivers substantial rewards for the patient, long term investor.
The 8 – 4 – 3 Rule
- The first 8 years is a period where money grows steadily
- The next 4 years is where it accelerates
- The next 3 years is where the snowball effect takes place
Here is a table showing the compounding effect of a 7% annual return:
What’s the something bad? – The risk of doing nothing and not benefiting from compounding returns.
Currency Risk
Expatriates often have assets in one currency but expenditure in another; for example a Pension in British Pounds and outgoings in Euros.
As global investors there will always be some form of underlying currency risk but mitigating the practicalities of moving money around from one currency to another is possible with careful planning.
Options could be:
- Take all the currency risk at the start – ie transfer the whole ‘pot’ today to your expenditure currency – a one off risk.
- Take all the currency risk at the end – exchange the money to your expenditure currency when you draw the money out; this might be better as it may spread the risk over time.
- Manage the currency – you could set up your account in your expenditure currency (e.g. Euros) but keep the underlying investments in their original currency (e.g. GBP) and then create a strategy to move the money over time to match the outgoings.
What’s the something bad? – The risk of not correctly matching your assets with your liabilities – a large fluctuation affects your lifestyle.
Assessing Your Attitude to Risk:
All of the above is to help our conversation about ‘RISK’ but in order to best set up and review your investment portfolio we have a 3 part process to determine exactly how much investment risk you can tolerate:
1. Your ATTITUDE to risk – this is a psychometric test, via a questionnaire, to assess your in-built view on risks, volatility and returns.
2. Your CAPACITY to take risk – this is a deeper understanding of your overall situation and therefore your ability to weather ups and downs in portfolio values… i.e. do you have other assets, a large pension or property income; how reliant are you on your portfolio at any given time?
3. Your TIME HORIZON for investing – when do you need to access to this money? Will the access be to draw an income or large lump sums or even, all of the fund in one go? Or is this money just to be invested to pass on to beneficiaries?
The answers to these 3 questions provide us with a ‘score’ and ‘understanding’ of how you will use the money being invested… this allows us to assign a ‘Risk Benchmark’ to your portfolio, from which we will determine its asset allocation and then monitor its performance and volatility for the duration of the investment.
Obviously, your TIMESCALE changes over time and your CAPACITY can change as your life situation changes; even if you maintain the same inherent ATTITUDE to risk we must always review and monitor the overall position of your portfolio and potentially change your benchmark as time passes.
Final Thoughts
Investing always carries ‘risks’, but knowledge and strategy can help manage them effectively. Whether it’s inflation, market fluctuations, or longevity concerns, working with a financial adviser ensures that risk is considered within a well-thought-out plan. Overall doing nothing is the largest risk.
Staying focused on long-term goals, and avoiding emotional reactions to short-term market movements, usually leads to successful financial outcomes.
I would very much like to thank the team at RBC Brewin Dolphin for their kind input and help with this article, I truly hope you found it useful.
If you’d like to discuss your investment strategy and how to manage these risks, feel free to get in touch!
Enhance Your Financial Planning Experience
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 7th March 2025
07.03.25
I’m always looking for ways to improve how we can work together, ensuring that your financial planning experience is seamless, efficient, and tailored to your needs. To that end, I am excited to share some recent technology updates that will enhance our communication and collaboration.
These two new enhancements add to the suite of tech tools I am already using to save time, improve communication, improve my efficiency in dealing with follow up tasks and provide you with the best financial planning service possible.
Introducing Our Virtual Office Via Spatial.chat
Spectrum advisers and our clients are spread across Europe and so we have invested into an innovative virtual office via App.Spatial.chat to offer a more interactive and engaging way to meet remotely. This platform allows for an easy to use virtual face-to-face experience, making it easier for us to discuss your financial plans in a comfortable, secure setting – whether you’re at home or on the go.
This tech does not replace face-to-face meetings but offers us another way of meeting. I will be offering this as an invite option via my Calendly Booking system as well as zoom, teams, telephone calls and, of course, face to face meetings.
When you enter the Spectrum Virtual office, as a guest, you will see a brief introduction as to how it works, you can then enter the main office or any of our ‘country’ offices, via the list on the right hand side of the screen.
Our meetings will be conducted in my own personal office which is password protected so we have complete privacy from anyone else who might be online at the time.
I look forward to seeing some of you there over the coming months.
Secure Meeting Documentation with Otter.ai
To ensure I capture every important detail during our discussions, I will now be using Otter.ai to record virtual and even live face to face meetings, with the agreement of my clients.
This tool allows me to create accurate transcripts of our conversations, helping me stay fully aligned with your financial goals and ensuring that nothing is overlooked.
Rest assured, all recordings and transcriptions will be handled securely, I permanently delete each one as soon as I have downloaded the transcribed notes and follow up to task lists, maintaining strict confidentiality in accordance with data protection standards.
Click on the following image to view a brief introduction to Otter
If you prefer for me not to record our meetings, please say so, and I will turn off the tech. Likewise, if you want me to send you the notes I would be very happy to.
Why These Changes Matter to You
- More convenience: Join virtual meetings effortlessly, without the hassle of traditional video conferencing setups.
- Better accuracy: Transcribed notes ensure that no key point is missed.
- Improved collaboration: We can refer back to meeting summaries for clarity and progress tracking.
Successfully Introduced over the last few years
Cash Calc Secure Client Portal for data gathering, expense tracking, document sharing and even secure messaging: https://the-spectrum-ifa-group-1002.cashcalc.co.uk/register?ref=MTIzMTU=
Calendly booking system for easy call and meeting booking linked straight to my diary https://calendly.com/peterbrooke/30min
DocuSign and Adobe Sign – these allow me to send you paperwork to sign digitally and securely to save us all time and the requirement to print and post documents.
The future of finance is undeniably tech-enabled. By embracing AI and support tools like these, we plan to remain competitive, agile, and customer-focused.
Feel free to get in touch if you have any questions via the below channels, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
If you have missed any previous emails, click here to access the Archive.
For now, have a great day, speak soon…
‘Play it again ‘Uncle’ Sam’
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 4th February 2025
04.02.25
Looking forward to 2025
Another year and another wonderful Spectrum conference. More on that in a moment.
Last year, in Budapest, was my 20th conference with Spectrum after which I offered a fairly cautious outlook for the year to come. You can review my thoughts in The view from the Danube
I have now just returned from a superb four days in Casablanca, hence the name of this piece, which was our first ever conference outside of Europe. We had another great group of experts who shared their views on the key themes likely to shape 2025. From the future of US markets under Trump 2.0 to opportunities in bonds and the transformative power of AI; here’s a summary of the insights most relevant to your investments and financial goals. Overall I feel cautiously optimistic looking forward to 2025.
Market Highlights & Opportunities
US Exceptionalism: Can the Outperformance Continue?
Even with the slightly pessimistic outlook for 2024, the US stock market had an exceptional year, with the S&P500 delivering one of its strongest performances in history, though much of this was led by a small handful of stocks.
As we look to 2025, several factors suggest US markets could remain a standout:
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Momentum: The US economy grew by 3.2% in 2023 and is forecasted to grow 2.8% in 2024, showing resilience despite high inflation and interest rates.
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Earnings Growth: US companies are projected to achieve earnings growth of 13.8% in 2025—significantly higher than the 7.4% forecast for European companies.
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Profitability: The US has long maintained a profitability edge over other developed economies, and Trump’s deregulation efforts could further enhance competitiveness.
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Structural Advantages: Energy independence, favourable demographics, and leadership in technology (particularly AI) continue to position the US ahead of its global peers.
Trump 2.0: Pro-Growth Policies and Market Implications
With the Republican Party securing a clean sweep in the 2024 elections, President Trump is expected to have more freedom to implement his policies in his second term. Here’s what investors should consider:
- Focus on Stock Market Performance: Trump views stock market performance as a key indicator of his success, aligning his administration’s priorities with investor interests.
- Trade and Tariffs: ‘America first’ tariff policies aimed at encouraging manufacturing in the US could have a mixed impact—potentially limiting inflationary pressures but altering global supply chains.
- Tax Cuts and Deregulation: Further tax cuts and red tape reductions are likely. While tax policy changes may take time to impact the economy, they could provide immediate support to stock markets.
- Immigration: A crackdown on illegal immigration could weigh on certain sectors like agriculture, but a scaled-back approach may reduce the economic disruption.
- Geopolitical Stability: Trump’s administration is expected to focus on negotiations over conflict, which may support global market stability.While there are risks—such as high valuations in sectors like Artificial Intelligence (AI), the US markets remain supported by strong fundamentals, making increased exposure to this market a prudent strategy.
UK Bonds: A New Era of Opportunity
Bonds are regaining their appeal:
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Attractive Yields: UK gilts are offering a 5.5% yield, equivalent to a real return of nearly 3%, presenting an appealing alternative to equities, especially in Europe.
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Diverse Opportunities: Investors are also finding value in international bonds, including those from Portugal, Romania, and Germany.
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Volatility Awareness: Bonds have become as volatile as equities, underscoring the need for a well-diversified portfolio.
AI: The Next Growth Engine
The AI revolution is driving innovation and creating new opportunities across industries. It is important to consider those companies who will be enabled by AI and who will earn from “enabling the enabled” as well as those companies supporting the infrastructure of AI.
Key investment areas include:
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Data Ownership and Infrastructure: Companies like RELX (legal and medical data) and Equinix (data centres) are poised to benefit from the AI boom.
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Efficiency Gains: Firms such as Rentokil and Waste Management are leveraging AI to optimise operations and drive growth.
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Cloud Infrastructure: AI can’t happen without the Cloud.
Navigating Risk in 2025
Understanding and managing risk is critical to achieving long-term financial success. I will be writing a newsletter in the coming months focussing solely on ‘risk,’ but for now here are key considerations:
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Inflation remains sticky: The risk of doing nothing could erode your cash’s value over time.
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Volatility: Short-term market fluctuations are normal but tend to even out over time, emphasising the importance of staying invested.
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Longevity: For couples, there’s a 50% chance one partner will live to age 90—making a long-term income strategy essential.
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Sequencing Risk: Timing withdrawals during retirement requires careful planning to avoid depleting your assets prematurely.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
With markets adapting to new norms, a balanced and diversified approach remains crucial:
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US Market Focus: While US equities remain a core component, avoiding over-concentration in sectors like AI is vital. Just 7 companies make up 33% of the S&P 500 index and contributed 55% of all the returns of the S&P500 in 2024 – the largest concentration in history.
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Employ Active Managers: Passive investors have had a great run, especially if invested in US equities but as we have already seen this month the AI Titans have sold off on one piece of news from China. Active managers will control these concentration risks.
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Global Bonds: High yields make bonds an attractive addition to portfolios, particularly for those seeking income and stability.
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Alternative Investments: Assets like gold can provide a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation.
I would very much like to thank the investment management teams at RBC Brewin Dolphin, Rathbones Investment Management, Evelyn Partners, New Horizons, Alquity Investments, VAM Funds and Prudential International for their time and expert views for the content in this update.
Here are some links to other articles supporting this summary if you want to dive deeper into the details:
US Continues to Outperform https://www.evelyn.com/insights-and-events/insights/can-us-outperformance-continue/
A look back on 2024 https://www.evelyn.com/insights-and-events/insights/2024-investment-review-ifa/
Trump 2.0 https://www.lgtwm.com/uk-en/insights/market-views/trump-politics-the-global-order-250934
The excellent monthly Rathbones Sharpe End Podcast https://www.rathbonesam.com/uk/sharpe-end-podcast#podcasts
Nice-Cannes Marathon 2024
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 2nd November 2024
02.11.24
Run with Purpose: Peter Brooke and The Spectrum IFA Group Take on the Nice-Cannes Marathon 2024!
On November 3rd, Peter Brooke from The Spectrum IFA Group will proudly run with The Run for Hope Team in the Nice-Cannes Relay Marathon. For years, Peter and Spectrum have embraced this challenge, raising awareness and funds for a cause that deeply resonates with them.
The Run for Hope team, is a partnership between Mimosa and Cancer Support Group 06, brings together a community of runners from beginners to experts, inspiring teamwork and fun to raise funds for cancer support by running in the Nice-Cannes Relay Marathon. Participants enjoy comprehensive training, support and a festive after-party, all contributing to a great cause, the support of cancer patients on the French Riviera.
As experts in financial planning for English speaking expatriates living in Europe, The Spectrum IFA Group provides comprehensive and personalised financial advice, and planning. Peter, who has been with Spectrum for 20 years on the French Riviera understands the complex financial and tax issues his clients face and he and Spectrum are dedicated to helping you navigate these challenges.
By participating in the relay marathon, Peter and Spectrum demonstrate their commitment to the broader community on the Côte d’Azur. Supporting The Run for Hope Team allows them to blend their professional expertise with their passion for making a difference. Cheer on Peter and the whole Mimosa team as they run for hope, showcasing the same dedication they bring to managing your finances.
Together, we can achieve great things—both on the marathon route and in your financial journey!
The Spectrum IFA Group: Running for Hope, Running for You!
2024 Market Update
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 28th July 2024
28.07.24
Following my outlook in January I am writing with a quick update on the year so far and a look forward for the rest of the year and into 2025.
One important point I would like to make is that many global issues, especially Politics and the outcome of the many elections we have in 2024, might feel very important to us on a day-to-day basis but might have a very different impact on investment markets and so do please read the following through the lens of investing.
Global equities have been performing well, with US equities gaining 15% in the first half of 2024, led by companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple, which contributed significantly to market progress.
The economic outlook indicates that the global economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024, with improved growth prospects in the US and China due to factors like loose fiscal policy, immigration, and government stimulus programs.
Market ‘breadth’ has been a concern, with the above five technology stocks driving over half of the returns in the US market; as global growth continues this should lead to opportunities in other sectors like industrials that are connected to the Artificial Intelligence theme; very recently we are starting to see a broadening of market returns.
Market risks related to inflation and interest rates are expected to shift to a positive tailwind in the second half of the year, which should be good for both shares and bonds. Central banks, like the European Central Bank (ECB), are already cutting interest rates and others are likely to follow suit.
Here is a chart of four different Risk Benchmarks and the main UK and US Stock markets so far in 2024; steady, but the US continues to serge ahead… for now.
Inflation
Inflation hasn’t yet returned to pre-covid levels and is unlikely to drop back this much any time soon. Goods, energy and food inflation have all fallen but services inflation is still high, though this has started to fall slightly in recent weeks. ‘Services’ includes ‘shelter’ e.g. rent and other services such as hospitality.
Interest rate cut forecasts from the ‘experts’ have see-sawed so far this year but the current consensus view is that the first US interest rate cut should now be expected in September. The ECB has already started cutting rates, very slowly, and UK rate cuts might be pushed out into 2025 as services inflation in the UK remains ‘stickier’ than elsewhere.
Elections
Elections do pose sporadic risks to markets, though normally election results don’t truly matter in the longer term; but with the huge volume of elections this year and the swings from left to right (and back again) the volatility caused by the outcomes of elections will probably have much greater short-term impacts than normal.
US – The upcoming election is a key risk, with potential market volatility depending on the election result, especially following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the withdrawal of Joe Biden.
If Kamala Harris is selected as the Democratic candidate then Democratic party policies are likely to remain unchanged and so volatility in markets could be short lived, but if they enter the time consuming process of selecting a different candidate (increasingly improbable at the time of writing) then the inevitable political uncertainty could drive US share and bond volatility for longer.
According to the polls and bookmakers the Republicans are now more likely to win, but what might that mean for investors? Potential tax cuts, more deregulation, more protectionism and more oil drilling could be good for US corporate profits and might help bring down inflation. This might not be great for the planet and society but could be good for business.
In addition tariffs on goods entering US from China (and the rest of the world) could add to the short term inflation problem.
Europe – there has been a backlash against various EU led initiatives, like climate change policy and immigration leading to a swing towards the right in many countries.
France – President Macron called a snap election as the Far Right were gaining traction in EU elections; several left wing, centrist and right wing alliances formed as tactical voting led to a deadlock. The major coalition is now on the left of the house which is probably negative for French investment returns but any law changes are very unlikely for at least 12 months when another round of elections is expected.
UK – the new Labour majority government was not a big surprise with ‘time for change’ as a leading driver; but will they be able to do what they said they would do? So far they remain quite centrist and don’t appear to be planning on drifting back to the ‘old labour’ way. They are likely to be more fiscally responsible and will target growth BUT can they actually do it as the challenges are significant and the budget is tight – for example the demands on the NHS and the hot potato of immigration.
There might, however, be a big shift with the relationship with Europe, which must be positive for both sides, especially with respect to defence, cybersecurity and trade and even more so if the US becomes more self protectionist under Trump.
Currency
Here are some thoughts from our friends at Moneycorp:
As many predicted the Labour Party secured a strong majority, and the FX markets remained relatively stable. We’ve seen GBP strength, with GBP/USD rising by 1.7% and GBP/EUR up by 0.8%.
The French election results, however, were unexpected. We had anticipated significant market movements, but the outcome has been a 3-way hung parliament, with all other parties joining forces to prevent the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) from gaining power. This situation suggests potential political turmoil in France for at least the next 12 months until another election can be called. This is not a favourable outcome for President Macron or Europe as a whole. Despite this, the FX markets have remained stable, as the EUR had already weakened prior to the election.
Inflation data and interest rates continue to be the primary drivers of the FX markets.
Here is a Forecast Snapshot of where the banks think FX markets will be at the end of Q3 (30th September).
GBP/USD
Current 1.2840
Barclays 1.28
UniCredit 1.26
Wells Fargo 1.26
BNP Paribas 1.27
GBP/EUR
Current 1.1860
Barclays 1.22
UniCredit 1.16
Wells Fargo 1.19
BNP Paribas 1.20
EUR/USD
Current 1.0825
Barclays 1.05
UniCredit 1.08
Wells Fargo 1.06
BNP Paribas 1.05
I am, once again, very grateful to the teams at Evelyn Partners, Rathbones, New Horrizons and Moneycorp for their help in putting this summary together and hope it is useful in framing where we are today and how we got here.
Here are some further links to supporting views on the above:
https://www.evelyn.com/insights-and-events/insights/investment-outlook-july-2024/
https://www.rathbonesam.com/knowledge-and-insight/review-week-biden-bows-out
https://www.rathbonesam.com/blog/guess-whos-back
If you listen to podcasts I can highly recommend the Sharp End Podcast from David Coombs at Rathbones Asset Management
Talk to me
As always, please remember that financial decisions should be made with careful consideration of individual circumstances and professional advice, I am here to support you.
If you have missed any previous news and updates these can all be found on the archive page here.
I am away on holidays until 5th August but if you have any questions or need further assistance, please feel free to reach out via the below channels, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
For now, have a great day, and a wonderful summer
Best regards
Peter Brooke
The Financial Review Process
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 9th July 2024
09.07.24
… why, what and how …
Whether you are an existing client of mine or not, and following on from my previous article on ‘The Value of Seeking Financial Advice’, I wanted to take this opportunity to go through the steps in our ‘Client Financial Review Process’.
WHY?
Firstly, and most importantly, it’s crucial to regularly check in on your financial journey, ensuring that we’re on track to meet your goals.
Secondly, we have a regulatory obligation to conduct a review at least once per year for all of our clients, whether this is in person or remotely.
Thirdly, we have a relationship which is built on trust and my understanding of, often, very personal details, so a regular catch up is a great way to nurture this relationship and ensure important issues are raised and discussed; and its a good excuse for a cup of tea and a biscuit [even if via Zoom].
WHAT?
A review won’t just be looking at what has happened over the last year but is designed to identify potential financial planning adjustments we might want to make if your circumstances are changing.
The review should, and will, include the following:
- An update of your situation – incomes, bank balances, asset values, expenditures.
- Changes to your situation – retirement, moving house, changing jobs, school fees etc.
- Cash Flow planning update – are we still on target to meet your goals? … “am i going to be ok, and if not what do I need to do to make sure I am?”
- Investment Portfolio performance update – has it out-performed or under-performed the risk ‘benchmark’ we have allocated? If so, why? Are any changes needed?
HOW?
Many of my clients have been through this review process over the years but I have made a few tweaks and so I wanted to take you through the steps.
The biggest change for us is that I will be asking many of my clients to update their situation directly onto the Secure Cash Calc Portal prior to our review, so I have the most up to date information in advance. This will give me a chance to review your situation before our meeting to ensure we get the most from our time together.
Of course it is not obligatory to use the portal as it is not appropriate for everyone, but if you would like to then do let me know.
The following summary explains each step.
Options for you…
The above summary is focused on the normal Face to Face or Zoom meeting review process, but I can also provide your review as an email or I can even record a video presentation of my update on your portfolio and cash flow plan which you are then free to watch at your leisure; then we can discuss any steps necessary and update any administrative requirements afterwards.
Please do let me know if you prefer to have an email or video review?
As you can see, it’s a collaborative process and financial reviews are a great way to check-in on how things are going and where adjustments need to be made, so if your situation changes, please don’t wait for the next review, get in touch and we can review early.
If you have any questions please use the the below channels, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
If you have missed any previous emails, click here to access the Archive.
For now, have a great day,
Buying your dream home in France – webinar
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 20th June 2024
20.06.24
WATCH THE WEBINAR HERE
I have worked with many of the panelists for a number of years and their knowledge and experience is valuable to me and my clients; so if you are looking at buying and/or relocating to France then please join us for this live webinar.
Our experienced panelists are here to discuss all nature of topics to do with buying and relocating to France:
Karen Tait – Webinar host
Peter Brooke – Wealth & tax planning from The Spectrum IF Group
Joanna Leggett – French Property Expert from Leggett
Jonathan Watson – Currency Expert from Lumon
Paulette Booth – Banking and insurance expert from AXA
Tracy Leonetti – Visa & paperwork expert from LBS
Sharon Revol – Mortgage expert from Cafpi
