US – The upcoming election is a key risk, with potential market volatility depending on the election result, especially following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the withdrawal of Joe Biden.
If Kamala Harris is selected as the Democratic candidate then Democratic party policies are likely to remain unchanged and so volatility in markets could be short lived, but if they enter the time consuming process of selecting a different candidate (increasingly improbable at the time of writing) then the inevitable political uncertainty could drive US share and bond volatility for longer.
According to the polls and bookmakers the Republicans are now more likely to win, but what might that mean for investors? Potential tax cuts, more deregulation, more protectionism and more oil drilling could be good for US corporate profits and might help bring down inflation. This might not be great for the planet and society but could be good for business.
In addition tariffs on goods entering US from China (and the rest of the world) could add to the short term inflation problem.
Europe – there has been a backlash against various EU led initiatives, like climate change policy and immigration leading to a swing towards the right in many countries.
France – President Macron called a snap election as the Far Right were gaining traction in EU elections; several left wing, centrist and right wing alliances formed as tactical voting led to a deadlock. The major coalition is now on the left of the house which is probably negative for French investment returns but any law changes are very unlikely for at least 12 months when another round of elections is expected.
UK – the new Labour majority government was not a big surprise with ‘time for change’ as a leading driver; but will they be able to do what they said they would do? So far they remain quite centrist and don’t appear to be planning on drifting back to the ‘old labour’ way. They are likely to be more fiscally responsible and will target growth BUT can they actually do it as the challenges are significant and the budget is tight – for example the demands on the NHS and the hot potato of immigration.
There might, however, be a big shift with the relationship with Europe, which must be positive for both sides, especially with respect to defence, cybersecurity and trade and even more so if the US becomes more self protectionist under Trump.