Even with diligent preparation and thorough planning comes a mild sense of apprehension as the big moment approaches.
How many guests will show up?
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 17th October 2023

Even with diligent preparation and thorough planning comes a mild sense of apprehension as the big moment approaches.
How many guests will show up?

It was then with quiet satisfaction, and some relief, that Spectrum’s Debrah Broadfield and Mark Quinn welcomed a steady stream arrivals to their financial planning seminars in the Algarve this week.
At two venues over two consecutive days, 80 guests attended these events for a timely update on recent changes to the investment and tax planning opportunities (currently still) available to expatriates living in Portugal.
With explanations, practical examples, and responses to audience questions, our hosts highlighted how to invest securely, successfully and tax-efficiently, adding that professional guidance is (of course) essential for achieving the most favourable outcomes, and avoiding potentially expensive pitfalls.
Richard Flood and Lorraine Reddaway from RBC Brewin Dolphin complemented these presentations with an insight into investor psychology and the behavioural impact of emotional decisions on investment returns – perhaps unsurprisingly, inexperienced investors are often poor decision-makers when it comes to wealth management.
RBC Brewin Dolphin’s approach to stock selection and portfolio construction provided reassurance on the value of professional asset management.
Both seminars were well attended, with many guests requesting meetings for immediate help and advice.
8th November 2023
Boavista Golf & Spa,
Quinta da Boavista, 8601-901 Lagos
10am – 1pm (with a coffee break)
9th November 2023
Magnolia Hotel,
Estr. Da Quinta Do Lago, 8135-106, Almancil
10am – 1pm (with a coffee break)
Covering a wide range of topics, our workshops aim to give you the knowledge to make good choices in all areas of financial planning, taxation and organising yourself for life in Portugal.
With an informal round table format, we will be discussing issues such as:
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 21st September 2023

Join us, and our panel of guest speakers, for informed guidance on Portuguese resident tax and financial planning opportunities, commentary on investment markets and to meet like-minded people in your local area.
10th October 2023
Magnolia Hotel
Estr. da Quinta do Lago, 8135-106 Almancil
10am – 1pm
11th October 2023
Boavista Golf & Spa
Quinta da Boavista, 8601-901 Lagos
10am – 1pm




By Portugal team
This article is published on: 15th September 2023

Even if you are a Non Habitual Resident (NHR) with preferential tax status, UK and Portuguese property will remain taxable on both income and capital gains. However, there are certain planning opportunities you can tax advantage of in Portugal and the UK.
UK property planning
When selling UK property, you can deduct expenses associated with buying and selling the property, including professional fees and fees incurred on the transfer of property, such as stamp duty. You can also add any expenses incurred in enhancing the property to your base cost.
If the property has ever been your principal private residence (PPR) you can reduce or even eliminate the capital gains tax with main residence relief. This ensures that any period during which the property was your PPR is exempt from tax. For example, if you lived in the property for 5 years out of a total ownership period of 10, then only 50% of any gain would be subject to tax.
The property is also considered your PPR for 9 months after leaving the property so you can increase your tax-free ownership period.
UK allowances available
Even if you have left the UK, as a UK/EEA national you can retain your annual capital gains tax (CGT) allowance to offset any taxable gain, although this is reducing – the current allowance is £6k but falling to £3k from the 2024/25 tax year. If you hold property jointly with your spouse/civil partner, you can combine your CGT allowances (and income tax allowances if letting).
Timing is important
If possible, selling when you have not sold other assets will ensure your full CGT allowance can be set against the property gain.
If you are still UK tax resident you can also:
Non-Resident Capital Gains Tax (NRCGT)
If you are a Portuguese tax resident, you are able to benefit from NRCGT which is a UK tax concession which states that only the increase in value of property after April 2015 is taxable e.g. if you purchased a property in 2000, any increase in value between 2000 and 2015 is not taxed. This can substantially reduce your tax bill and wash out gains, and as stated earlier, you can still retain your annual CGT allowance.
If you also qualify for NHR there would be no tax in Portugal, which under normal circumstances would otherwise be taxed at progressive rates.
A further planning angle for those with NHR is that, if properties are held within a company, any dividend taken would be free of tax.
You may find the HMRC link useful when calculating your likely liability https://www.gov.uk/tax-sell-property/work-out-your-gain

Portugal property planning
Properties purchased after January 1989 are subject to capital gains tax on 50% of the gain. Property purchased before this date is not subject to CGT. Do note, NHR does not have any effect on the taxation of Portuguese property.
Some expenses are deductible, such as the buying and selling costs. In addition, inflation relief is available in Portugal if the property is held for more than two years.
It is possible to mitigate or even eliminate the taxable gain on a Portuguese main home by:
The amount that must be reinvested is the net sale proceeds, not just the gain. Any amount not reinvested is taxable under the normal rules.
There are nuances around these rules so please always seek professional advice. There are also complicated scenarios when selling property held by companies and specialist advice and calculations are required.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 12th September 2023

With rising interest rates, we have seen banks offering interest rates in excess of 4% or even higher with 1-year fixed terms. This coupled with the perceived risk of investment markets and the constant stream of negative news has left many wondering whether staying in cash is best.
Short term goals
Cash certainly has a place as an emergency “buffer” to allow for life’s unexpected events, and it is also sound financial planning to set aside sufficient for your short-term needs. Likewise, holding cash as part of an investment portfolio is important and it can help reduce the effects of volatility often seen in markets.
Cash as a long-term investment
Interest rates offered by banks to customers rarely beat inflation, so using this as a long-term savings strategy is not ideal.
Even with rising interest rates, the returns from cash are still negative when you consider that inflation currently sits at 7.9% in the UK, so investors are not getting any real returns. As an example, the negative effect of a modest 2% inflation on £100,000 over 10 years is £82,035 and £67,297 over 20 years.
However in the longer term, interest rate cuts are likely as the Bank of England is starkly aware that keeping interest rates high risks triggering a recession and destabilising the UK housing market. Central banks globally are also now close to pausing and then reversing recent rate hikes.

Protect yourself against inflation
Investing in high-quality company shares has been shown to offer inflation protection. Looking at long-term figures, Credit Suisse show that over a 123-year period starting in 1900, shares in developed equity markets have generated returns of 5.1% above inflation and emerging equity markets have achieved 3.8% over inflation.
The Credit Suisse figures also show that shares have outperformed cash (and bonds) in every one of the 21 countries its data covers over that 123-year period. This is quite remarkable given this period covers two world wars, two global pandemics, the great depression, the 2000 dot-com bubble, and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Opportunities elsewhere
Falling interest rates will provide opportunities elsewhere. For example, bond prices move in the opposite direction to interest rates so a future fall in interest rates is likely to result in capital gains on bonds, or holding shares allows investors to not only benefit from the increase in share price over time but income from dividends too.
If we look at the top 100 shares in the UK, analysts are expecting a dividend yield of 4.1% this year and 4.4% in 2024 and with the possibility for share buybacks added into the mix, this could be as high as 6% for 2023.
Tax considerations
Always consider the net interest rate you will earn. For example, a relatively attractive rate of 5% becomes a somewhat mediocre return of just 3.6% for a standard Portuguese tax resident who must pay 28% tax.
Also be cognisant that some of the more attractive rates being offered by banks in Guernsey and Jersey will have a higher tax rate applied of 35%, even if you are a Non-Habitual Resident.
The solution – balance
We believe a balanced approach of cash and investments makes most sense. The split however really comes down to your short- and long-term goals.
In short, cash is still king for short-term needs but for meeting longer-term income and growth objectives, stack the odds in your favour by using a sensible and well-diversified portfolio of shares, bonds and property. Coupling this with effective tax planning can lead to even more savings.
Lastly, Warren Buffet’s advice as one of the world’s most successful investors is, “The one thing I will tell you is that the worst investment you can have is cash. Cash is going to become worthless over time but good businesses are going to be worth more over time”.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 13th July 2023

Taxation of pensions in Portugal is complicated. The type of pension, how it is funded and how it is paid out can affect the rate of tax you pay and it becomes even more confusing when you have to consider potential taxes in the source country. Mark and Debrah examine the rules on taxation and the steps you should take to save your hard-earned cash.
Over the years we have seen different ways of reporting pensions in Portugal. This is because the Portuguese rules do not quite fit the complex UK pension rules and there is also a lot of confusion, even amongst professionals, about the nature of pensions. Sometimes this results in a favourable outcome, but in other instances, we have seen people paying more tax than they need to.
What is a pension in Portugal?
Portugal views a pension as a regular series of income payments. This can get confusing as from a UK context, pensions can be paid out as a series of income payments or lump sums.
Portuguese law does not specify a time period for payments to be deemed a pension, but it is generally considered amongst professionals that payments made on predetermined dates and at predetermined amounts would be deemed pension income.
Ad hoc payments could be deemed lump sums and would receive different tax treatment (as long there were no employer contributions). Here, the growth element is taxed at 28% and the capital is returned free of tax. There is a tax reduction of 20% after 5 years and 60% after 8 years. It is best to speak to your accountant on reporting options as they will be performing your submission.
UK Government pensions
These pensions are acquired by working for the state. In the UK these are generally armed forces, local authority and some types of NHS pensions (a full list can be found on HMRC’s website).
These are always taxable in the source country and tax is deducted at source. Portugal does not tax these pensions, but they must be reported in Portugal, and they do count when assessing your other taxable income in Portugal.
All other pensions are taxable in Portugal (not the UK) and each person has an annual deduction of €4,104 against pension income
UK state pension
The UK state pension is taxable in Portugal only. No tax is due in the UK. The pension can be paid out free of tax to you from the UK once HMRC are satisfied you are no longer a UK resident. Otherwise, UK tax will be deducted at source and you must reclaim this.
For Non-Habitual Residents (NHR), the tax due in Portugal is 10% (unless you have pre 31st March 2020 NHR, in which case it is 0%). For normal residents, scale rates of tax apply which for 2023 are 14.5% to 48%.
Occupational pensions
These pensions are funded solely by an employer, or by employer and employee contributions from pre-tax income.
If you can determine the split between employer and employee contributions, the former are taxed at the prevailing rate and the latter can receive 85%/15% treatment i.e. 85% is returned free of tax and 15% is taxed at the prevailing rate. If this cannot be determined, the whole amount will be taxed at the prevailing rate of tax.
For NHRs, the rate is 10% (or 0% for pre-2020). For non-NHRs, it is the scale rates of tax.
Personal pensions
Where a personal pension was solely funded by personal contributions made with after-tax income, then it is possible to apply long-term savings taxation rules which can be more favourable. Here, only the growth element of any income received is taxed at 28%, with tax reductions after years 5 and 8 resulting in effective rates of tax of 22.4%and 11.2% respectively.
If there are contributions made in resect of employment activity e.g by an employer or via pre-tax income, then scale rates are likely to apply to the full pension, unless you can distinguish between the contributions.

What about the 25% PCLS?
Portugal does not recognise the UK concept of a 25% pension commencement lump sum. So, if your retirement plan is to take this, then it is best to do it whilst UK tax resident. If taken once resident in Portugal, the above tax rates will apply.
Get your UK pension paid out to you gross
Firstly, you must complete a ‘DT Individual’ form. This is available online from HMRC. You then submit this form to HMRC with a proof of residency in Portugal certificate, which you can obtain from the finances portal. You will need to take an income from the pension to trigger the process, which is likely to be emergency taxed so just take a small amount. Once your provider receives notification of a ‘nil rate tax code’ from HMRC they will pay your pension out to you without deducting UK tax.
What else should you be aware of?
The UK government recently changed the ‘lifetime allowance’ (LTA) rules. Contrary to the common belief that this has been ‘abolished’, the rules actually state that no charge will apply for 2023/24. This difference is important for those thinking of taking their pension benefits during this window of opportunity.
Previously the LTA was capped at £1,073,100. After which pension savings suffered a tax charge of 25% if taken as income or 55% if a lump sum. Lump sums were taxed more heavily as it assumed that 25% represented the LTA excess charge and a further 25% represented an income tax charge. The new rules remove the 25% LTA excess charge but not the 25% income tax charge, so when taking amounts above the LTA as lump sums, a 25% deemed income tax charge will still apply.
Either way, this provides a unique opportunity for those with large pension pots. This opportunity however is not guaranteed for the future as commentators believe that a Labour win in the next election will likely see this reinstated.
Lastly, currently, assets within a pension can be passed down free of UK inheritance tax (IHT) and they have become crucial planning tools for UK domiciles. Similarly, income tax is not payable by beneficiaries if the pension holder dies before age 75 (tax is payable if death occurs after 75).
There have been ever-increasing murmurings of the introduction of inheritance tax applying to pensions and income tax being imposed on beneficiaries where death occurs before age 75. The most recent and serious being at the end of 2022 when the Institute for Financial Studies published a report recommending changes to the rules and stating that these changes could bolster government funds by £1.9 billion.
It could be an opportune time for you to review your pension planning with this and your beneficiaries in mind.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 12th July 2023

You are probably quite au fait with your home country’s investment structures, options, and practices, but what happens when you move abroad? Just because your investments are tax efficient in one country does not mean that the tax advantages will transfer to another.
Mark Quinn and Debrah Broadfield look at the taxation of typically held investments in Portugal and what options are open to residents looking to legally shelter from taxation.
All bank interest is reportable and potentially taxable in Portugal, irrespective of where the account is located or if you use it or not.
If you have Non-Habitual Residence (NHR), interest earned on foreign accounts is tax-exempt, unless the account is held in a blacklisted jurisdiction such as Guernsey, Jersey, or the Isle of Man, in which case it is taxed at 35%. So, if you are still holding large sums in these ‘tax havens’ you should consider restructuring this.
If you are a non-NHR, all bank interest earned on foreign accounts is taxed at 28%. Similarly, interest from Portuguese bank accounts is always taxed at 28%, irrespective of your NHR status.
We usually see individuals with dividends paid from their own companies, directly held shares, or investment portfolios. This is a great source of income if you are a NHR as these are tax-free in Portugal during the 10-year period.
It is worth thinking about what you are doing with the income once received. If you are not spending it all and it is accumulating in a bank account earning little or no interest, you should consider investing this in a tax-efficient manner to get your money working for you.
For normal residents, dividends are taxed at 28% but there is the potential for tax savings if you can restructure.
Foreign-sourced property income is reportable in Portugal but is tax-exempt during NHR. Post-NHR, this income is taxed at scale rates (up to 48% plus solidarity tax at 2.5%/5%) with a credit given for tax paid in the country where the property is located (if there is a double tax treaty).
NHR does provide a unique tax-saving opportunity when selling a foreign property. Usually, 50% of any gain on sale is taxed in Portugal at scale rates, but if sold during the NHR period there is no tax to pay. Do note however that tax may still be due in the country where the property is located.

One of the most common and tax-efficient ways to save is within an ‘offshore investment bond’. Such structures are recognised throughout most of the EU and in the UK.
Unlike a standard investment portfolio, that attracts capital gains and income tax as it arises, gains within an investment bond grow free of both income and capital gains tax. This is also known as ‘gross roll up’ and works in a similar way to a pension or a UK ISA.
The other main advantages over directly held investments are:
– You can control the timing of taxation. With standard investment holdings, when income or dividends are produced, they are deemed paid (whether actually paid out to you or not) and are taxable on an annual basis. With a tax-sheltered structure, income and gains are only taxable when a withdrawal is made.
– Withdrawals are very tax efficient. Withdrawals are split into capital and growth and tax is only payable on the growth. Although the tax rate on the growth element starts at 28%, you enjoy a 20% tax reduction after 5 years and a 60% tax reduction after 8 years.
It is worth knowing that this preferential tax treatment is enjoyed by both NHRs and standard Portuguese tax residents. And because the structure becomes more tax efficient over time, these are great long-term planning tools for those with NHR who intend to remain in Portugal once they are subject to the standard rates of tax post-NHR, or for long-term residents without NHR.
– These structures offer a unique tax planning opportunity for those who might return to the UK in the future. Under UK rules, only investment growth generated whilst resident in the UK is taxable. So, for those who have spent many years abroad in Portugal, this can create the opportunity for very advantageous tax planning on a return to the UK.
Lastly, choosing the right jurisdiction and provider is essential to ensure compliance in Portugal. You will also want to avoid jurisdictions with withholding taxes and bonds located in tax havens, as these are punitively taxed at 35%.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 17th March 2023

One of the most confusing aspects for expats is establishing where they should be paying tax after they have left the UK. Many just assume that there is no UK liability after they have left.
UK property
Tax on income and gains from UK property is always taxed in the UK, even if you live in Portugal with or without NHR status. You do still have your UK annual personal allowance and capital gains tax allowance to offset against any taxable income or gains as a non-UK resident.
You must also declare this in Portugal and will receive a tax credit for the tax paid in the UK to offset any Portuguese tax liability.
UK government pension income
The taxing right remains with the UK in respect of former government service pension income, and you have your UK personal allowance to offset against this.
Government service pension schemes are not the same as the UK State Pension. The State Pension is not taxable in the UK, can be paid out to you gross and is taxable in Portugal.
UK private pension schemes
Private pension schemes are taxable in Portugal. Again, the income can be paid out to you gross by your pension provider. However, in practice, some people still find themselves having tax deducted at source on UK pension income and must reclaim it. If you complete a DT/individual form, available from HMRC’s website, and follow the submission process you will be able to receive your pension free from UK tax at source.
UK dividend & interest trap!
The UK has the right to tax UK-sourced dividends and interest under the treaty rules between the UK and Portugal but an interesting quirk of the rules is that when you submit your UK tax return HMRC will automatically calculate the best outcome for you; either to not tax your UK dividends and interest and in turn, you lose your UK personal allowance (this is called disregarded income treatment) or to tax them and preserve your personal allowance to offset against other income e.g. rental.
Special care must be taken if claiming split-year treatment – this is when you leave the UK partway through the tax year and you are only taxed in the UK from 6th April to the date you leave. A real-life example: an individual who left the UK in July subsequently took a large dividend in the same UK tax year. As a result, the dividend was taxed in the UK (even though they were no longer UK resident) and this resulted in a hefty tax bill. Had they waited until after the following 6th April, HMRC would not have taxed this.
Exceeding your UK day count
Another scenario where you could find yourself a UK tax resident, even though you have moved abroad, is when the relevant day count allowance is exceeded. The UK Statutory Residence test clearly sets out the rules and the allowable number of days to avoid getting yourself into this grey area. The day count can be as little as 16 days and as much as 182 days depending on the number of ties and connections you have.
UK Inheritance Tax
Another context when you can still have a UK liability is in respect of succession and inheritance tax. This is a complicated area, and we will dedicate next week’s article to exploring this topic.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 14th March 2023

Many British business owners may not have considered selling their UK business as a Portuguese tax resident, and whilst the UK rules for selling business are generous, we have seen several business owners enjoy better outcomes here in Portugal.
Opportunity
Non-Habitual Residence (NHR) status allows those in receipt of foreign-sourced dividends to receive them free of tax. This has proven to be a great opportunity for UK business owners who can enjoy the luxury of running their businesses at arm’s length.
But most owners do not want to run their businesses forever, and what many may not have realised is that selling their business whilst Portuguese tax resident could be highly tax efficient and, in some cases, provide a better result than the UK.
Real-life example
We recently worked with a business owner who had agreed to sell their UK-based business, but the sale would take some time to complete.
They knew what their tax liability on the sale would be in the UK but were keen to move to Portugal quickly, rather than wait for the sale to complete whilst they were resident in the UK. They were understandably disappointed to learn that the potential tax liability in Portugal would be markedly higher, at 28%.
However, on reviewing the structure of the business and how the sale was arranged, we were able to advise on a position where the couple could move to Portugal immediately with a resulting zero tax liability. Additionally, working with a local accountant, it was possible to create an accounting loss for them to use against future gains in Portugal.
In addition, we presented a highly diversified and managed risk solution to preserve and grow their wealth, whilst also future-proofing them for the end of their NHR status and a possible return to the UK.
The position turned out to be better for them selling as Portuguese tax residents, rather than UK tax residents, and they got to get on with their new life in the sun sooner than originally planned.

Replacing business income
The most important step following a sale or after drawing large dividends is finding an appropriate new home for the cash – you do not want it sitting in the bank being eroded by inflation, invested in inappropriate structures, or held tax-inefficiently going forward.
Whether you want to replace the income you once enjoyed, or preserve wealth for future generations, the key is structuring correctly for your goals. This must take into account several factors, such as where you and your ultimate beneficiaries are resident and the associated tax implications, flexibility in access and appropriate investment strategies, to name just a few.
Explore your options
We regularly work with business owners’ UK accountants, tax advisers and other trusted parties to explore restructuring and selling options. We are also on hand for clients to ensure that the advice is coherent, viable and implemented correctly from a cross-border perspective.
We also work with clients to put longer-term plans in place to ensure ongoing tax efficiency, compliance, and wealth preservation here in Portugal. If you would like to explore your options, please contact us for an initial discussion.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 3rd March 2023

The Golden Visa scheme (est. 2011) was a residency-by-investment scheme, and whilst very attractive to individuals, has always been considered controversial by some Portuguese politicians as well as various EU governmental authorities.
It allowed non-EU nationals to obtain residency rights in Portugal (and therefore access to the Schengen area) by making relatively low capital investments into real estate or Portuguese-based investments. It also had very loose minimum stay requirements of only seven days per year.
What happened?
As a result of the influx of foreign investment, mainly into the housing market, Portugal’s real estate sector exploded.
The increased demand for property has not only driven up property prices but also affected the rental market. Many of these properties have been made available for short-term lets e.g. AirBnB, because of the lucrative returns in comparison to long-term lets. In one of the poorest countries in Europe, where the minimum wage is just €760 per month (2023), it has led to a housing market crisis, pricing out many Portuguese nationals.
There have been efforts over the years to try and reduce the negative effect on the real estate market by restricting the qualifying investment locations, excluding the more popular coastal and city areas. But under increasing pressure, the Golden Visa scheme was terminated with immediate effect in February 2023. Premier Costa stated that it was, “no longer justified” and that it has served its purpose to inject much-needed investment into Portugal over the last decade.

What about those with the Golden Visa?
The Golden Visa is valid for five years. Those already in the scheme will only be able to renew their visa if they use the property as their own home or if they make it available for long-term lets.
No new Golden Visa applications will be accepted.
Other visa options
Despite the end of the Golden Visa scheme, many other options are available to prospective ex-pats. The most appropriate one for you will depend on your circumstances and intentions.
For example, a D7 visa requires applicants to have a minimum level of passive income and does not allow the individual to work in Portugal. The D2 visa is aimed at attracting entrepreneurs who wish to establish an economic activity in Portugal and will allow the individual to work. There are also visas aimed at digital nomads.
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 27th February 2023

It’s been a rough time recently for financial markets with many falling in 2022.
We’ve experienced a once in a hundred-year combination of events, with the global pandemic, recession fears, rising inflation and interest rates, the war in Ukraine and the farcical situation of five changes of British Prime Minister in just six years!
With that backdrop, it is no wonder markets have struggled, but there are several interesting statistics to show that now may in fact be a good time to invest if you are holding excess cash.
1. Falling markets mean the growth outlook has improved
The first point is counterintuitive, but the 2022 market declines have actually improved growth expectations.
For example, Vanguard, the second largest fund manager in the world, has recently revised its growth forecasts upwards and believes that investors will now be better off over the next decade than if 2022 had not occurred.
Vanguard’s growth forecasts for global equities are now 7.4%-9.4% over the longer term.
The fall in bond prices in 2022 has similarly resulted in better growth expectations, as lower prices mean new investors are now enjoying higher levels of income yield.
2. 2022 was very rare in investment terms
Bonds and shares/equities tend to move in different cycles i.e. if shares are falling in value, investors seek the relative safety and income of bond investments and this causes bond prices to increase in value.
However, this relationship broke down in 2022, being one of only three years in the last 45 where shares and bonds were down at the same time – the chance of this happening going forward is low.
3. Two consecutive years of stock market falls is rare
Data from NYU shows that the chance of having two consecutive years of stock market declines (as measured by the US S&P 500 index) is low. The chance of 2023 being negative is just 9% based on this data.
4. Short periods to recover losses
Figures from Gugenheim have examined previous market falls of between 20 and 40% and found that the average time to recover the losses is just 14 months.
With global markets starting their declines in late 2021, based on this statistic we would be nearing the end of the downturn in markets.

5. Equities outperform cash over different time periods
Some investors perceive cash as more secure than shares. However, data from Blackrock shows that shares (S&P 500) outperform cash (Treasury bills) over many different time periods, even short time horizons.
The statistics I found particularly interesting are that, even on a short-term basis, shares would outperform cash holdings, for example 64% of the time over one month and 81% over one year.
6. Time is on your side
Data from Macrobond covering the 1971 to 2022 period shows that time is on your side with investments.
Over any one-year period, the chance of generating a positive return is 72.8%, but if you extend the period to 10 years the chance of a positive return increases to 94.2%.
These statistics of course are not a guarantee that markets will recover in 2023, but the convergence of all these factors is, for some investors, a positive indicator for the direction of equity returns for the year or two ahead.
More important though is that short-term market events should not be a distraction when implementing a long-term investment strategy.
We can guide you on how and where to structure your investments efficiently as a Portuguese tax resident, whether or not you are a Non-Habitual Resident, and how to futureproof these investments from changes in your personal circumstances.