If you’ve been paying attention to investment markets over the last couple of years, you’ll already know that AI is one of the most significant forces reshaping the global economy. The returns from semiconductor companies, cloud infrastructure, and the businesses building and running AI systems have been remarkable — and the broader implications are only just beginning to play out.

I was in London recently for an industry conference, and the keynote session on AI was arguably the most discussed moment of the whole event. Not because the topic was new to anyone in the room — we’ve all been watching this unfold — but because of how quickly it’s now moving inside financial planning firms specifically. The framing that stuck with me: this isn’t just another software upgrade. It’s closer to an industrial revolution. The shift from paper-based advice to digital systems in the 1990s took a decade. What’s happening now is moving at a fraction of that pace.

I came away thinking a lot about what this means for how I work — and for you.

“Technology won’t replace advisers — but advisers who use technology will replace those who don’t.“

Here’s a simple example. If you ask ChatGPT, “I need to go to the car wash — it’s 200 metres away. Should I walk or drive?”, it will very sensibly tell you to walk. It’s close, after all. What it misses, of course, is that the entire point of going to the car wash is to wash the car. That’s not a failure of intelligence. It’s a failure of context, of understanding the bigger picture, of asking the right question in the first place.

That’s what human advisers do. Not just answer the question in front of us — but understand why you’re asking it, what’s really going on underneath it, and what the right question actually is.

Here’s what it actually changes — and what it doesn’t.

One of the most practical shifts is in how I handle meeting notes. If we speak by video call, I record and transcribe the conversation using a secure, multi-factor authenticated application. This means I can be fully present and listening, rather than split between the conversation and a notepad. Afterwards, the transcription lets me extract the key points accurately — compliance notes, commitments I’ve made to you, things you’ve agreed to send me, follow-up tasks from switches, withdrawals, or other issues we’ve discussed. That all goes into my task management system so nothing gets missed or delayed. The recording itself is deleted from the app immediately once I’ve taken what I need.

If we’re meeting face to face, I’ll simply ask your permission to record it, in the same way as for a video meeting and for the same reasons — in my experience, most people are very comfortable with it once they understand why.

If you’re one of my existing clients and not already using the CashCalc Client Portal for document sharing and secure messaging, do get in touch and I’ll set you up. It’s a much safer option than email for anything sensitive, and is straightforward to use. See the short explainer video below if you haven’t seen it. And if you’ve ever wanted to book a call without the back-and-forth of scheduling, Calendly has been running quietly in the background for a while now — it’s saved all of us rather a lot of emails.

At Spectrum, we’ve updated our processes accordingly. Any withdrawal or surrender request that arrives by email, I will always speak to you directly — by video call — before anything moves forward. No exceptions. In some cases, particularly if a new bank account is involved, I will also ask you to show me a bank statement, either by holding it up to the camera or screen-sharing. It sounds simple, because it is — but that kind of direct human verification is exactly what stops fraud in its tracks.

On that note: AI can now be used to create convincing video overlays in real time. If you ever receive a video call from someone claiming to be me and something feels off, ask them to wave their hand in front of their face. It breaks the overlay. I’ll always do it happily. If someone won’t — end the call.

Looking forward with judgement

“42” but what’s the question?

In Douglas Adams’ The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, a vast supercomputer called Deep Thought is asked to find the answer to ‘life, the universe, and everything’. After millions of years of calculation, it delivers its answer: 42.

The problem, it turns out, is that nobody had thought to ask for the question.

They then had to build another supercomputer — the Earth — just to work out what the question was supposed to be.

In a roundabout way, this is a fairly good description of where we are with AI right now.

One of my AI bootcamp coaches put it well recently: we’re moving from a knowledge economy to a judgement economy. Every answer is now theoretically available to everyone. What remains scarce — and genuinely valuable — is the ability to know which question to ask, to understand context, to see the bigger picture, and to make a call when the situation doesn’t fit neatly into any formula.

That’s what twenty-plus years of working with clients in France, navigating genuinely complex financial and tax environments, actually builds. AI will help me do more with that experience.

It won’t replace me.

I find this genuinely exciting. I hope you do too, and if you don’t I am here to help.

June marks the official beginning of summer – although the heatwave at the end of May gave us an early taste of the season. For French businesses, this is the final month to conclude key transactions and projects before the traditional slowdown in July and August. For French resident tax payers there are also a few matters to address before the summer really starts.

Most people will have by now submitted their tax return – those living in departments numbered over 55 have until 4th June and those who have engaged an accountant to do their tax returns will also be granted additional time to file. The tax statements will be available online from 24th to 31st July. For those receiving paper statements, these will arrive by post between 23rd July and 28th August.

The 15th June is the deadline for trustees of trusts where a trustee, settlor or beneficiary is fiscally resident in France, to complete the declaration 2181-TRUST2, declaring the value of the assets in the trust as at 1st January. The issue of trusts in France is one I’m often asked about. Are trust illegal in France? No. Trusts do not exist under French law, however French case law (jurisprudence) has long accepted that Trusts set up in other countries can have effect in France provided that they were created in accordance with the law of the country in which they were created, and that they do not contain any provisions which are contrary to French public policy (ordre public) especially as regards forced heirship (reserve héreditaire) – Paris Court of Appeal decision, 10th January 1970, Époux Courtois et autres consorts de Ganay. If you are the beneficiary, trustee or settlor of a Trust and this is the first time you have heard about the requirement to declare the trust, you need to first declare the existence of the trust using the form 2181-TRUST1 as well as the value as at 1st January.

Property owners have until 30th June to update the information on the buildings on their property and the occupants of those buildings on the impots.gouv.fr website if their situation has changed between 2nd January 2025 and 1st January 2026. If your property portfolio remains unchanged since the last declaration, no action is required. Only one declaration is necessary for a building and adjacent structures (e.g. garages, swimming pools etc) if they are occupied by the same person(s). Furthermore, as the review of rental values has been pushed back 3 years, landlords do not have to declare the amount of their rent received, unless they choose to do so.

On 26th May 2026, the Prudential Assurance Company (PAC) Board conducted its quarterly review of the Prufund Expected Growth Rates (EGR). The EGRs—which represent the forward-looking component of Prufund’s unique smoothing mechanism—remain unchanged for this quarter. Additionally, there were no Unit Price Adjustments (UPAs). The UPA is the backward-looking element of the smoothing mechanism; it is entirely formulaic, non-discretionary, and designed to protect investors from short-term market volatility.

After reports that a deal had been reached last week, oil prices dropped to $92 but have now risen to $96.28 the barrel on 1st June.

While we do not understate the human and political seriousness of these events, such conflicts are a regrettably familiar feature of the global landscape. Historically, long-term investors have been well-served by avoiding overreacting to short-term geopolitical shocks.

Inflation data published last week confirms that energy price pressures are increasingly filtering through to core economies. May data revealed inflation hitting 2.8% in France, 3.3% in Italy, and 3.6% in Spain. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates at its June meeting, despite visible signs of economic deceleration across the Eurozone. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a reliable metric for broader business activity—slumped to a 31-month low in May, following a contraction in the French economy during Q1 2026. Meanwhile, US forecasters now project inflation to end the year at 3.6%, marking yet another period where inflation sits stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

In contrast to geopolitical events, the rise of AI represents a profound paradigm shift that will permanently alter the structure of the global economy.

The early part of 2026 saw a move away from software and information services businesses, as investors adopted a “sell first, ask questions later” approach. Time will tell as to which business models will become obsolete from the use of AI and which will see their productivity enhanced by these extraordinary breakthroughs.

For the vast majority of portfolios, maintaining a disciplined, long-horizon stance—what could be termed deliberate “inaction”—remains the soundest strategy.

Despite the pervasive negative sentiment in the financial media, all major equity indices remain in positive territory for 2026 – a vital reminder for us all to keep focused on corporate and economic fundamentals, rather than market emotion.

The coming, more relaxed, summer weeks, are a perfect time to get in touch to arrange a free, no obligations, meeting with me to discuss your personal financial situation.

In April 2026, I had the pleasure of addressing a select group of prospective buyers at an event hosted by a prestigious estate agency. The setting was a magnificent French château—the perfect backdrop to discuss the fiscal and legal complexities of acquiring such historic assets. While the focus was on the “Château lifestyle,” these insights are equally pertinent to any high-value property acquisition in France.

The first question is whether to buy as a private individual or to set up a private property company called a Société Civile Immobilière (SCI). France has strict inheritance rules which dictate that the children inherit the majority of the estate leaving the surviving spouse with only the beneficial ownership (or ‘usufruit’) of the property. Whilst some Notaries advise inserting a clause in the deed of sale known as a “Tontine” clause to circumvent this, the inheritance aspects of this clause are often not fully explained. The effect of the Tontine is that the surviving spouse or partner is deemed to have owned the property solely from the outset. This can mean that the deceased spouses’ children are therefore disinherited.

An SCI is a legal entity through which several people, family members or investment partners, can own a property jointly. Shares can be gifted to children every 15 years utilising the €100,000 tax-free allowance per parent, per child. Non-residents can also, depending on their national law, leave their shares to their heirs thus avoiding French ‘forced heirship’ inheritance rules. The shareholders own the shares of the SCI company and the SCI owns the property. However if a shareholder wants to live in the property as their main residence in France, the SCI can lose some of its benefits. Also as a private company, the SCI needs to be created and maintained with albeit very basic (but necessary) book keeping, annual shareholders meetings and company registers.

The purpose of an SCI is to own property and receive the rental income, it cannot carry out any other business. So if the owner wants to carry out private events, chambre d’hote or sell produce, they need to set up a separate private limited company (S.A.R.L). For this they will need the advice of an accountant.

If the property is worth over €1.3million the owner(s) may be liable for Wealth Tax (‘IFI’). Non-residents only pay Wealth Tax on their French assets over this threshold. French tax residents, are liable for Wealth Tax on their worldwide properties after their 5th year of residence. The Wealth Tax declaration is done online with the income tax declaration. The tax is calculated on a sliding scale starting at 0.5% (for assets between €800,000 and €1.3 million) and rising to a maximum of 1.5% on assets over €10 million. Cash buyers may want to consider taking out a mortgage since it can reduce the net taxable value of the property. SCI shareholders are not necessarily liable for Wealth Tax even if the value of the asset is over €1.3 million since their loans to the SCI can be deducted. Additionally, primary residences benefit from a 30% valuation reduction, which may help keep the estate below the threshold.

Lots of property owners rent out all or part of their properties either all year or seasonally. There are two categories of rental income, furnished rental and unfurnished rental. All rental income is taxed in France. Furnished rentals are treated as business income. Obtaining the “meublé de tourisme” classification is recommended since this allows for an abatement of 50% on the gross income before it is subject to tax (compared with the standard 30% abatement). This classification also allows a business to earn up to €83,600 under the simpler Micro-entreprise or only €15,000 if unclassified. Over these thresholds the business would be under the “régime reel” and would need to the assistance of an accountant. An accountant would also be able to advise on the LMNP (‘Loueur en Meublé Non-Professionnel’) status, whereby the value of the property can be depreciated. It is a good idea to ask the current owners of the property how they have structured their rentals or business.

France remains one of the world’s most desirable locations for luxury real estate. Before committing to a purchase, consult with experts who understand the cross-border nuances of the French system. At The Spectrum IFA Group, we provide bespoke financial advice and coordinate with a trusted network of estate agents, notaries, and accountants to ensure your investments are both protected and optimised.Together we can make your French dream come true!

The returns must be submitted before midnight on these dates, if not a 10% late penalty payment could be added to your tax bill. The paper returns must be put in the post box by midnight on 19th May.Whilst you can download our free Spectrum guide on your tax returns HERE, here are some tips that I have about doing the tax return given the recent changes to the system:

1. Have all your figures ready and written down before you start (from bank statements, December 2025 payslips, UK tax statements etc). Stating the obvious here but this is a bit like baking a cake and realising that you don’t have the necessary ingredients. It is also a good idea to look at the boxes that you put your income in last year.
2. If you have foreign income, do the 2047 form first. You need to go into “Annexes” and tick the 2047 box since it won’t be ticked from last year, then when you are in the 2047 form tick the boxes for your income. UK rental income and government pensions need to be put into Section 6 to be carried into box 8TK on the 2042. Other boxes will not be carried over automatically so you need to re-enter these amounts on the main tax form.
3. Your bank accounts are already listed and the good news is that this year you don’t have to find the separate 3916 form. However, if you have an assurance vie, the figure given as the amount as at 1st January 2025 will not be correct and will be the figure entered last year, so you need to update this. The other information regarding your other accounts, should be the same so there is nothing to do there.
4. This year you can choose whether your investment income is to be taxed at your marginal rate or at the flat tax rate. If you are either not taxable or only taxable in the 11% rate, then you should choose to have your investment income taxed at your marginal rate. However, if you are a higher tax payer, the flat tax may be more beneficial.
5. Don’t forget your tax credits. If you have home help (gardeners, cleaners etc) you get a tax credit of 50% of the amount even if you have no tax to pay. This may have been taken at source through CESU for example but if not, you need to declare the amounts on the tax certificates you received from these organisations. There are extra boxes this year where you need to state the name of the organisation, type of organisation, type of service provided etc as well as the amount.
6. Did you make any charitable donations in 2025? If so, you need to find the amounts and proof of these donations for your files. Charitable donations only give you a tax reduction, not a tax credit so if you are under the tax threshold you can declare the donations but it won’t affect your tax liability.
7. If you have paid into a PER in 2025 the figure will appear on the form but you need to reenter it in the box below.
8. If you have children in high school, sixth form or university you need to put the number of children in each category to get a small tax deduction. Cost of care for children under 6 can give rise to a tax credit of half of the amount.

Every year in France people either engage a tax specialist to do their taxes or they attempt to do the form themselves. In the latter case it can cause some stress and worry but also a rewarding feeling once it is done. There are many things that can stress me out but taxes isn’t one of them. So if you have any questions or concerns about your French taxes or financial matters, please do get in touch.

What to Check Before You Submit

It’s that time of year again.

For most people in France, the tax return is a rinse-and-repeat process — but when you have income, assets, or accounts across multiple countries, it’s very easy to miss something.

Below is a practical checklist to help you stay organised, avoid common oversights, and submit your return with confidence.

Note: This is a guide, not an exhaustive list. You remain responsible for your own tax return and for ensuring the information you submit is complete and accurate.

Currency tip:

• For one-off payments, use the exchange rate on the date received
• For regular payments (e.g. monthly pensions/salary), an annual average can be used
• Apply a consistent approach — you can’t choose a more favourable rate

What you must declare

The key rule in France is simple: Everything is declarable, not everything is taxable.

Checklist:

• All worldwide income
• UK pensions (state, private, government
• Rental income (any country)
• Investment income (interest, dividends, gains)
• Withdrawals from investment products (including Assurance Vie, ISAs, Investment accounts.
• Other income types (e.g. salaries, self-employed income, foreign earnings, return of capital where applicable)

Important:
Even where income has already been taxed elsewhere (for example UK government pensions), it still needs to be declared in France

In most cases, you will receive a tax credit in France for tax already paid, assuming a double taxation treaty applies

Ensure your figures are accurate and based on the correct exchange rates at the time income was received

Key things to check:

• All foreign accounts correctly declared
• Assurance Vie policies (Luxembourg / Dublin, etc.) included
• Correct boxes selected to trigger required declaration forms
• If you hold an S1, ensure the relevant box is completed on Form 2042 C

Healthcare and social charges

Your healthcare position can affect how social charges are applied.

Checklist:

• If you hold an S1, ensure the relevant box is completed on Form 2042 C
• Check social charges are applied at the correct rate
• Review how investment income is treated

Guide to rates (simplified):

• Pension income: up to 9.1%
• Assurance Vie gains: typically 17.2%
• Interest, dividends, capital gains: 18.6%

Important:
If you are covered by another EU system (e.g. S1), you may qualify for reduced rates. In some cases, charges may be applied initially and then adjusted or reclaimed later.

Tax credits and useful extras

• Home help (cleaner, gardener, etc.)
• Childcare costs
• Children in school (primaire, collège, lycée — small credits may apply)
• Any eligible household services
• Any tax certificates received

Note:
Some income and tax credits are pre-filled on the return. It’s worth checking these against your own records (e.g. December payslips or provider statements) and correcting if needed

Final checks before you submit

• All income sources included
• All foreign accounts declared
• Figures are consistent
• Exchange rates applied consistently
• No obvious omissions

Practical tips

• Don’t leave it until the last minute
• Use last year’s return as your template
• The right to make an error is recognised in French law — once the system reopens, you can go back and make corrections
• Use the online messaging system if needed
• You can also visit your local tax office — they are often very helpful

Useful resources

To make this easier, I’ve included a couple of practical tools at the following links, which I hope you find useful:

Tax Return Preparation Spreadsheet

Assurance Vie Declaration Template (Form 3916)

Spectrum French Tax Guide

Spectrum Assurance Vie Guide

March has been a rather long and hectic month not just in terms of workload but also due to the ongoing geo-political situation. Since the joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28th February, we have faced soaring oil prices and persistent market volatility. With no clear exit strategy, investors remain nervous.

The investment landscape has changed significantly. One fund manager recently shared that while his career began with decisions based on technical data and analysis, he now finds himself monitoring Truth Social for indications of policy direction. The traditional “quiet weekend” has been replaced by the risk of late-night social media updates from the US President that can pivot global markets come Monday morning.

Despite a consensus that Iran needs to de-escalate to alleviate the economic pain felt by its regime and populace, and that US troops on the ground would be highly risky with no guarantee of success, both sides continue to match each other’s threats. Just last night President Trump seemed to suggest that the war would continue for another couple of weeks.

Oil and gas price rises have continued to rise over the past few weeks. Brent crude oil was 63.3% higher for the month, the largest monthly percentage rise on record over recent decades.

The markets remain understandably pre-occupied by the Middle Eastern conflict, and specifically the impact on energy prices. This could also affect inflation expectations leading to central banks possibly raising interest rates.

You can now choose whether you would prefer that your investment income be taxed at the flat tax rate or at your marginal rate. Previously by ticking the box 2OP on the tax declaration, your interest, dividends and capital gains would be subject to your marginal rate and not the flat tax of 31.4%. This choice was irreversible even if the taxpayer later realised that it was not beneficial. As from next year, taxpayers will be able to change this option. However, for income received in 2025 and declared in 2026 this does not apply.

The thresholds for micro-entreprises will increase for income earned in 2026, 2027 and 2028 to €203,100 for Micro-BICS for sales of goods and holiday rentals and to €83,600 for other micro-BICs (furnished rentals, services and arts) and for micro-BNC businesses. However, the threshold remains at €15,000 for “meublé de tourisme non classé”.

After a strong start to 2026, gold’s “safe haven” status is being called into question. Traditionally seen as a less volatile asset class that can hold its value in times of crisis, hedging against equity market falls, since the conflict escalated in March, gold prices have fallen steadily. In France, there are two types of tax on gold, either a 11.5% on the sale price or at 36.2% on the gain with tapered relief based on the duration of ownership and full exemption after 22 years.

After the Easter weekend I will be back at work but then will take the second week of the school holidays to spend time with family. If you have any questions about your finances or taxes in France, please do get in touch to arrange a free, no obligation, phone call or meeting.

A simple guide to key terms used in cross-border estate planning

Understanding inheritance terminology can be challenging, particularly when dealing with assets in both the UK and Spain.

Differences in legal systems, tax rules, and administrative processes can cause confusion for individuals and families managing cross-border estates. This guide is designed for UK nationals living in Spain, Spanish residents with UK assets, and anyone involved in administering an estate that falls under both jurisdictions. It explains commonly used inheritance and probate terms in clear language to help you better understand the process and make informed decisions.

Will

A written document prepared before a person’s death that sets out their instructions regarding who should manage the administrative aspects of their estate, who will be responsible for looking after their money and possessions while the process is being completed, and who they wish their assets to be distributed to.

Estate

The “estate” is the collective term for all financial interests of the deceased. This includes bank accounts, insurance policies, pensions, property, shares (including private and family-owned company shares), bonds, loans made to third parties that now need to be repaid, and other assets.

Forced Heirship (Spain)

In Spain, rules apply regarding how two thirds of an estate must be distributed. Children take priority over spouses, and only one third of the estate can be freely distributed.

However, for expatriates living in Spain, EU Regulation 650/2012 (“Brussels IV”) allows them to elect for the inheritance laws of their nationality to apply to their Will. For a UK national, for example, this makes it possible to distribute the entire estate in accordance with their wishes.

Please note that this EU regulation only applies if the instruction is expressly included in the Will.

Probate

Probate is the term used to describe the legal process of administering and distributing an estate.

In Spain, the document confirming distribution in accordance with the law and the Will is called the Escritura de Aceptación y Adjudicación de Herencia (Deed of Acceptance and Adjudication of Inheritance), which must be signed before a Spanish notary.

In the UK, the equivalent document is known as the Grant of Probate, which is issued by the Probate Office.

Trustee and/or Executor

A trustee and executor can be the same person, although it is often more than one individual in order to share the administrative responsibility.

The trustee is responsible for safeguarding the assets of the estate until they are formally transferred to the beneficiary. The executor is responsible for ensuring the legal formalities are completed so that the transfer of assets to the beneficiary is valid.

Beneficiary

A beneficiary is a person named in the Will who will receive all or part of the estate.

Bequest

A bequest is the term used to describe what is transferred to a beneficiary. This may consist of a single asset, such as a property, or multiple assets, such as property, bank account balances, and shares. A group of assets transferred together may also be referred to as a bequest.

Modelo 650

Modelo 650 is the Spanish tax form used to declare and pay inheritance tax and to support the preparation of the Escritura de Aceptación y Adjudicación de Herencia.

PA1P and IHT400

The UK form used to apply for a Grant of Probate is Form PA1P (if there is a Will) or PA1A (if there is no Will).

If inheritance tax is due, the executor must first complete Form IHT400.

Who Pays Inheritance Tax in the UK?

In the UK, the estate of the deceased is assessed for inheritance tax. The assessment is based on the total value of the estate.

Who Pays Inheritance Tax in Spain?

In Spain, each beneficiary who is a Spanish tax resident is assessed individually for inheritance tax based on the value of the assets they receive.

Double Taxation on Inheritances

As the UK and Spain tax different entities (the estate in the UK and the beneficiary in Spain), the same entity is not taxed twice. As a result, inheritance tax is generally outside the scope of the Double Taxation Agreement.

However, practical solutions may be available depending on individual circumstances, and appropriate professional advice should be obtained.

When Must Inheritance Tax Be Paid in Spain and the UK?

Inheritance tax is generally due within six months of the date of death. It is important to note that tax is not due from the date the beneficiary physically receives their bequest, which is a common misconception.

This six-month rule applies in both Spain and the UK:

• In Spain, payment must be made within six months of the date of death.
• In the UK, tax must be paid by the end of the sixth month following the death.

Case Study: Protecting Life Insurance from Inheritance Tax

At the start of every client relationship, we carry out a detailed discovery process to fully understand your personal and financial circumstances.

In this case, a married couple, both UK nationals living in Spain, held life insurance policies valued at £1,000,000 each. During our review, we identified that the appropriate Inheritance Tax mitigation documentation had not been put in place. Without this structure, the value of the life insurance policies would form part of their estate and could be subject to UK Inheritance Tax for their UK tax-resident beneficiaries.

Given that their estate exceeded the available allowances, this created a potential Inheritance Tax liability on the life assurance proceeds.

We implemented the appropriate documentation to ensure the policies were structured correctly. As a result, up to £400,000 per policy (£1,000,000 × 40%) in potential Inheritance Tax is avoided for their beneficiaries.

Important Notice

This article is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. We recommend seeking professional legal advice to assist with the probate and distribution processes of an estate.

A specialist Inheritance Tax and Wills lawyer works with us to provide this service.

For an introduction to the lawyer, please email:barry.davys@spectrum-ifa.com

Geopolitics and Oil Prices

Over the past couple of weeks I’ve received a number of questions from concerned clients about the latest geopolitical developments and what they might mean for markets.

Whenever headlines become intense, it can understandably feel as though something dramatic must be happening in financial markets as well. The reality is often more nuanced — and this appears to be one of those moments.

In 30 seconds

Markets have reacted to rising geopolitical tensions, but the moves so far suggest caution rather than panic.

The key variable investors are watching is energy prices. Historically, bear markets tend to be linked to recessions, and the main risk from the current conflict is whether sustained oil price increases could slow economic growth.

Equity markets have moved lower, although declines have been relatively contained. Across developed markets, equities have generally fallen between 2% and 6%, while emerging markets have seen slightly larger pullbacks due to their greater reliance on imported energy.

Safe-haven assets have also seen some demand. The US dollar strengthened, while gold briefly rose above $5,400 per ounce before easing again.

Despite dramatic headlines, the overall reaction has remained relatively orderly. As LGT Wealth Management noted in a recent update:

“While the headlines have been dramatic, market moves so far suggest investors are reacting with caution rather than panic.”

Interestingly, much of the volatility has occurred beneath the surface of markets. The Rathbones multi-asset team recently highlighted that while headline equity indices have only fallen around 3–4%, there has been significant rotation between sectors and individual stocks.

Chris Saunders of New Horizon Asset Management also notes that the conflict is beginning to affect other parts of the global economy. Disruptions to Iranian production have tightened fertiliser markets, pushing prices higher and raising the possibility that food prices could also rise in the months ahead.

One of the main channels through which geopolitical events can affect economic growth is energy prices. Economists often use a simple rule of thumb: every $10 increase in oil prices can add roughly 0.3% to inflation and reduce economic growth by a similar amount.

With current expectations for US economic growth around 2.2%, oil prices would likely need to rise well above $120–$130 per barrel and remain there for a sustained period before recession risks became materially elevated.

At present, prices remain below those levels.

However, as Chris Saunders notes, the key variable may be how long the conflict continues, as prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply could delay interest-rate cuts and keep inflation pressures elevated.

As one Rathbones portfolio manager noted in a recent discussion:

“What was a good company before the weekend is still a good company afterwards. The share price may now be lower — which can create opportunities.”

Similarly, the investment team at Atomos emphasised that predicting short-term market movements during geopolitical crises is extremely difficult, reinforcing the importance of maintaining diversified portfolios designed to withstand periods of uncertainty.

Energy shocks can also accelerate structural change. Previous crises — including Europe’s energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — helped accelerate investment in renewable energy, batteries and alternative energy systems.

Key Insights

• Markets have reacted with caution rather than panic despite dramatic geopolitical headlines

• Oil prices remain the key variable investors are watching

• Historically, bear markets are far more closely linked to recessions than geopolitical events alone

• Current oil prices remain below levels historically associated with recession risk

• Maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment strategy remains the most effective approach during volatility

In Summary

Geopolitical developments will inevitably continue to evolve over the coming weeks. However, markets so far appear to be adjusting rather than overreacting.

History repeatedly shows that while headlines can move quickly, markets often prove more resilient than expected.

I hope you found this update interesting and helpful.

If anything has raised questions for you, or you’d simply like to talk something through, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. That’s exactly what I’m here for.

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What do I need to know?

I hope this newsletter finds you well; So, pensions are back in the spotlight as governments in the UK and Ireland introduce meaningful changes that could affect how individuals and business owners save for retirement. In this edition, we break down what’s changing, why it matters, and what you should be thinking about next.

Should Expatriates Keep Paying UK NI Contributions After 2026?

As you may have seen in the recent UK budget from April 2026, most expatriates will no longer be eligible to pay Class 2 National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and will instead need to use Class 3 contributions which cost more — but this still may offer an excellent return on investment.

The ruling states:

“From 6 April 2026, individuals will no longer be able to pay voluntary Class 2 NICs for periods abroad. Only voluntary Class 3 contributions will be available for tax years 2026 to 2027 onwards.

This change does not affect any voluntary contributions that can be paid for periods abroad before 6 April 2026 – there is more detail here

What you should do next

• Check your State Pension forecast – you can do this here: you will need a Government Gateway ID for the online system OR can contact them here
• See how many missing years you have
• Confirm that you’re eligible for Class 2 NI Contribution for previous years living abroad – check here
• Consider topping up those years at the lower cost Class 2NICs

If you’d like help interpreting your forecast or reviewing your eligibility for Class 2 vs Class 3 contributions, feel free to share the summary or screenshots — I’ll walk you through the options.

The ruling also states that “New applications to pay voluntary Class 3 NICs will need to have either”

• lived in the UK for 10 years in a row
• paid at least 10 years of National Insurance contributions while in the UK

What remains unclear is whether contributions paid for whilst abroad will count towards the 10 year rule and whether it is therefore sensible to pay for missing years before April 2026 to ensure you have 10 qualifying years so that you will be eligible to pay future years.

It certainly appears that long term non-UK residents, without 10 years of NICs, could be “locked out” of the system from April.

You generally need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions to receive the full UK State Pension. That’s why it’s important to know three things:

1. How many qualifying years you already have
2. How many past years you can still buy back (at Class 2 rates until April 2026, if eligible)
3. How many future years you still have before reaching State Pension age

Once you understand these three numbers, you can work out exactly how many additional years you might need. And remember: you may not have to pay for every remaining year at the higher Class 3 rate after April 2026.

Many expatriates will reach the 35-year mark using a combination of existing contributions, cheaper buy-back years, and only a small number of future payments.

Government Gateway tip:

To log in, you need to receive a security code by text message. If you change your mobile number, make sure you update it with HMRC before you lose access to the old phone number. Otherwise, you may be locked out of your Government Gateway account and unable to view your State Pension record.

Why this decision matters

If you expect to remain an EU resident during retirement, there are often strong long-term reasons to transfer your pension out of Ireland; (I cant cover this in this newsletter but contact me if you want more information).

Because of this, it is crucial that whatever happens to your pension today does not restrict your ability to make that transfer in the future.

• Moving your pension into a PRSA can, in most cases, limit or block your ability to transfer the pension out of Ireland at a later date, which can unintentionally reduce your planning flexibility.
• A Master Trust may offer better long-term portability — but only if the trust deed specifically permits future overseas transfers.

Our role

We help clients:

• • Analyse their current Irish pension structure

• Confirm whether future overseas transfers will remain available
• Ensure the chosen structure supports your long-term retirement strategy, not just short-term compliance

Personalised Guidance?

If you hold — or think you may hold — an Irish Executive Pension, reply to this email or click here to schedule a consultation.

We’ll ensure the restructuring supports your long-term financial interests, rather than simply following administrative defaults.

A practical solution: International SIPPs (Self Invested Personal Pension)

Your UK pensions can still be actively and professionally managed by a local adviser by transferring them to an International SIPP. This can also allow you to consolidate multiple pension pots into one, making your retirement planning far simpler.

An International SIPP can provide:

✔ Access to regulated advice
✔ Better consolidation and control, including currency options
✔ Potentially lower fees
✔ A flexible investment approach aligned to your residency and long-term goals

If you have a UK pension and live abroad…

You don’t need to leave your pension un-managed. Send us your pension information and we’ll assess whether an International SIPP could allow us to advise you properly and optimise your retirement planning.

Just to recap…

Important pension changes are now underway across the UK and Ireland and for many expatriates and business owners these changes create both risk and opportunity.

• From April 2026, most expatriates will no longer be able to pay low-cost Class 2 UK National Insurance, making it more expensive to build State Pension entitlement in future. Checking your record and filling any gaps early could significantly improve your lifelong retirement income.
• In Ireland, older executive pension schemes are being forced to restructure under IORP II, by April 2026. The choice between a PRSA and a Master Trust is not just administrative — it can directly affect your ability to transfer your pension abroad in the future.
• For those holding UK private pensions while living abroad, access to advice and suitable structures has become more restricted since Brexit. In many cases, an International SIPP now offers the most practical way to regain control, consolidate pensions, and receive ongoing professional management.

Across all three areas, the key message is the same: early decisions have long-term consequences. A short review today can protect flexibility, reduce future costs, and strengthen your retirement position.

If any of these changes affect you, we encourage you to get in touch. We’re here to help you navigate the complexity and ensure your pension remains aligned with your long-term plans.

After a very wet, windy and stormy February it is lovely see some sunshine and the first spring flowers coming into bloom.

The income tax thresholds have not been frozen as initially planned in the 2026 finance bill; instead, they have increased by 0.9%, aligning with the 2025 rate of inflation. The new tax-free allowance is €11,600 per person. The other tax bands are as follows:

Employees can deduct a set amount of €509 from their taxable salaries for costs, capped at €14,556. The 10% abatement before tax will still apply to pensions with a minimum of €454 and a maximum of €4439.

To reduce your taxes and assist you at home you may use home help such as a gardener or cleaner. Now the cost of home delivered meals to the handicapped or elderly and their dependents also qualifies for a tax credit even if you don’t have other kinds of home help. While services may be more limited in rural areas, it’s worth exploring.

Another measure that has been scrapped is the increased VAT threshold for independent workers and furnished rentals. This threshold remains unchanged.

As mentioned in last month’s Ezine, social charges have risen from 17.2% to 18.6%. Whilst this does not apply to assurance vies nor PEL accounts, it will apply to PER retirement accounts. Also, after the recent fall in interest rates on the Livret A and LDDS accounts on 1st February, the interest rate on the LEP account has also dropped from 2.7% to 2.5%.

On 25th February 2026 the Prudential Assurance Company board reviewed the Prufund Expected Growth Rates (EGR) as part of its quarterly review. Prufund aims to help customers grow their investments over the medium to long term (5 to 10 years) while protecting them from short-term market fluctuations through the unique smoothing process. The Expected Growth Rate (EGR) is the forward-looking element of the unique Prufund smoothing mechanism. This quarter the EGRs for all versions of Prufund remain unchanged.

However, there have been some upward movements to the, the Unit Price Adjustment (UPA), the backward-looking element of the Prufund smoothing process, which is formulaic and non-discretionary, as follows:

Prufund Growth GBP       +2.54%
Prufund Growth Euro      + 3.25%
Prufund Growth USD      + 3.46%

This is positive news for Prudential International investors when they receive their quarterly statements at the end of the month.

At the time of writing, the US and Israel have launched strikes against Iran, which will have an impact on oil prices and may cause some short-term market volatility. However, our well diversified portfolios are designed to withstand periods of geopolitical tensions. In times of intense media coverage, it’s important to remain calm and focus on long-term strategies.