I wanted to communicate some information regarding what is going on in the Middle East with some information from Evelyn Partners ( one of our asset management partners) in an email newsletter to all advisers, which provides perspective regarding investments.    If you have any questions or thoughts, do not hesitate to get in touch and fingers crossed this situation does not last long! 

Crude awakening in the Middle East

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have brought renewed market volatility and lifted oil prices, but diversified portfolios offer resilience in periods of uncertainty

 
What has happened?

Over the weekend, tensions between the US, Israel and Iran escalated materially. Israeli strikes have reportedly targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, while the US has signaled a broader objective that may extend beyond deterrence towards regime change. Iran has responded with attacks affecting parts of the Gulf region, including strikes impacting areas in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as Israel.

This marks a significant shift from prior contained flare-ups. Financial markets are responding to the risk of further escalation.

Initial market reaction

Three key price moves frame the immediate response:

• Brent crude oil is up roughly 10%, to around $80 per barrel.
• S&P 500 futures are modestly down approximately 1.5%.
• Gold is up around 2.5%, reflecting demand for traditional safe havens.

Paradoxically, such leverage could also deter China from blockading or invading Taiwan, a far larger systemic risk to global markets given Taiwan’s dominance in producing advanced semiconductors.

Key risks to watch

The primary “tail risk” remains disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes. At present, while there are signs of disruption – including higher shipping insurance costs and some tanker hesitancy – the Strait remains open and traffic continues. A full closure or mining of the waterway would represent a far more severe shock to energy markets and global growth.

There is also the risk of broader attacks on regional energy infrastructure or US-linked assets across the Gulf, as most of the key oil infrastructure sits within short-range missile range of Iran. However, at this stage, markets are pricing heightened uncertainty rather than a sustained supply shock.

It is also worth noting that global oil inventories have been rising, which provides a partial buffer against near-term supply disruption. That does not eliminate risk, but it may dampen the impact unless escalation becomes materially worse.

Equities have softened modestly, but earnings growth remains the dominant driver of equity markets. Corporate Earnings Per Share momentum has so far offset geopolitical and tariff concerns this year, and we are not seeing signs of systemic stress or disorderly market functioning.

• Energy prices rise, supporting oil and gas equities.
• Gold acts as a multi-use hedge during geopolitical stress.
• Inflation-linked bonds, such as TIPS, provide protection should higher crude feed into inflation expectations.

Within equities, exposure to energy producers can help offset broader market weakness linked to rising oil prices. In fixed income, inflation-linked bonds could benefit from rising inflation expectations. Alternatives such as gold continue to demonstrate their value during energy shocks, as seen in previous episodes including 2022.

Investment strategies are designed with periods like this in mind. They are constructed to withstand geopolitical shocks, inflation pressures and bouts of market volatility, while remaining fully liquid and aligned with clients’ long-term objectives and risk profiles.

Looking ahead

We expect markets to remain volatile in the days ahead. News flow may be intense and, at times, sensational. It is important to distinguish between media tone and market fundamentals.

At this stage, this is not a systemic market event. We are not seeing disorderly trading conditions or liquidity stress.Remain vigilant and ready to adjust portfolio positioning should fundamentals materially change.

For now, the appropriate stance is calm, disciplined and long term. Periods of geopolitical tension are unsettling, but diversified portfolios are designed to navigate precisely these environments. We will continue to monitor developments closely and keep clients informed with measured, evidence-based updates as the week progresses.

I know these are not easy time and so if you have any questions, or would just like to send me some comments then feel free to do so. I am always interested to hear your thoughts on these matters.

In this Ezine I will summarise the discussions and news from our annual event which took place in Monaco this year.   

As you may know my newsletters are not AI generated and for this reason they take me a little time to summarise the information, and also find the time to do so.     I hope that you appreciate the fact that you are not being sent existing information which has been trawled out of the internet-o-sphere, but rather real, new and original content.  (AI was a big story on the conference actually, so I will be touching on this a bit further down.

Interest rate cuts – Tax cuts – Lower energy costs – Deregulation

One interesting thing that occurred before I went on the conference, in fact just a few days before, was that a handful of people contacted me to say that they wanted to sell out of US based assets because they didn’t like the activities of Donald Trump and the current US administration. My advice at this time was:

We need to separate the political from the investment!

It is always good to be reminded that the US stock market is valued (USD 67-69 trillion) at more than the rest of the worlds stockmarkets cumulatively (USD 55 to 60 trillion). So no matter what we think about the politics in the US at the moment, to exclude ourselves from the US stockmarket would be akin to investment suicide. We can make investment choices based on sustainable and ethical choices (and we offer these services as well for our clients) but some of the best research, technological innovation and new creative thinking comes from the US and so it still retains it’s spot as one of the best, if not THE best places for an investor.

To further explain the importance of the US market, it was explained at the conference, that should just 1% of the total value of the US stockmarket be moved at any one time, it would hardly move the markets in the US at all. That same amount would be the equivalent of the entire German stockmarket (which includes all the big names we know such as Volkswagen, Basf, Siemens, SAP, Mercedes Benz and many more) and would have a tremendous impact on the German stockmarket and in Europe, just to give context on how important the US is for our portfolios.

Saying all this, I appreciate that the Trump administration may still be a little too much to bare for some people, and so here is my summary of what is going on there:

DRIVING THE US DOLLAR LOWER

If the U.S. economy is about 30% of global GDP, then should its currency, being that it is the reserve one, account for 35%-40% of global reserves and not 50% or 60%?

It is now pretty evident that the Trump administration is aiming to push the US Dollar lower against other currencies…but why?

The old globalisation game where the US outsourced everything and let China build the factories is effectively over. The idea that cheap imports were free trade and you don’t pay the price for destroying your industrial base is something which needs to be re-addressed as many economists on both the left and right side of politics, agree. To some extent Beijing also started weaponizing supply chains, particularly in rare earths such as lithium, cobalt and graphite, because they have an almost 90% control over these rare earths, both in mining and refining. The Trump administration is aiming to protect US interests and rebuild American industry from the ground up.

Tariffs are back—and they’re not going anywhere. They have largely turned out to be a negotiating stick and strategically aimed at specific goods rather than blanket punishment, to protect US domestic producers and force companies to bring manufacturing back to the US. As DT has said: “if you want access to the world’s largest consumer market, build in the US” Produce there and employ Americans.

A WEAKER DOLLAR IS PART OF THE PLAN

Not a collapse, but more than likely a deliberate, controlled depreciation to make U.S. exports competitive again and make imports more expensive. (2026 may see a further USD decline when the new Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh is put in place, and then it could stabilize)

Cheap foreign goods have flooded the US market (and Europe) for decades because the dollar was probably too strong. A weaker dollar rewards domestic production, boosts manufacturing margins, and will hopefully brings jobs back to places that have been forgotten for years! (If this strategy works then you can be assured that Europe wil adopt the same approach, no matter how much they hate to admit it!)

PROJECT VAULT

This could be one of the most significant decisions made by any US administration for decades. Project Vault is a $12 billion strategic plan to stockpile critical minerals, the equivalent of a Petro Reserve for the AI and defense age. The US is building a preferential trading bloc with price floors, adjustable tariffs, and enforceable rules to crush China’s predatory pricing and market flooding.

The winners will be the ones who control the physical economy—the mines, refineries, smelters and processing plants. Critical minerals and rare earth security.

Without them, nothing modern works. Jet engines. Hypersonic missiles. Wind turbines. Electric motors. Drones. Smartphones. AI data centers. Defense systems. EVs. Nothing.

And here are some examples:

Niobium—an irreplaceable steel strengthener. Adds toughness, corrosion resistance, and high-temperature performance to superalloys
(Brazil controls ~90% of global supply. The U.S. imports 100%. Zero domestic production. One mine in Canada which given the fractious nature of current US / Canada relations, the US considers this a national security nightmare)
Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr)—the magnetic rare earths that power permanent magnets, the strongest magnets ever made.
(Essential for EV traction motors, wind turbine generators, missile guidance, radar, precision-guided munitions, and high-performance robotics)

CHINA CONTROLS CIRCA 90% OF REFINING AND 93% OF MAGNET PRODUCTION AND 60% OF THE REFINED SILVER MARKET.

IF RELATIONS SOUR FURTHER, THEN BEIJING WITH JUST ONE PHONE CALL, COULD PARALYZE WESTERN DEFENSE AND CLEAN ENERGY SUPPLY CHAINS

And so, in a nutshell, that is what the Trump administration would appear to be doing geopolitically. (I won’t mention any US domestic issues that are….well….. questionable).

My hunch is that you will see Europe follow suit. Europe appears to have woken up (c/o D.T) to the fact that it needs to protect itself and can no longer rely on the US Military Industrial Complex. Re-arming Europe seems to be the EU leaders first objective, but if they then see progress with this economically nationalistic kind of behaviour in the US then I would say that they will start to walk a similar path, even though the EU is quite protectionist by nature anyway. It may mean that you need to stock up on TEMU goods now, whilst the prices are still low!

I have probably dedicated more time here to the Trump administration than I had wanted to, but it is clearly on alot of minds and so was worthy of a few lines.

However, on our conference we did discuss other investment matters, which arguably are not quite as important as what is happening in the US administration, but also warrant some time being spent on them.

THE GREENLAND DEBATE

These conferences are always interesting to get perspective on certain matters and the issue of Greenland was brought to light as follows:

From 1951 to 2004 the US had the right to place US bases in Greenland without any permission required.

From 2004 this power was taken away when Greenland gained sovereignty and fell under the supervision of Denmark.

Now, the pre-1951 agreement is being re-negotiated, and although not a ‘free to do what you wish’, the US will certainly have the possibility to expand its military presence. Was the whole ‘buying Greenland fiasco’ just a ruse to restablish this agreement?

THE AI BUBBLE

At the 2025 conference alot was made of AI and how it would be changing the world, putting people out of work and taking over our world. Just one year on and the view from the asset managers was almost completely the opposite, but also that it is not going anywhere soon.

However, an AI bubble (like the tech bubble of 2000), it would not seem to be. AI is already helping businesses to improve productivity but not by firing staff. There is no evidence of this and the companies running AI models themselves, are already profitable. In addition the Big tech companies are cash rich. It is more likely that AI integration will more of a messy technological shift, than a huge damaging effect and it’s very unlikely that AI stocks will be the cause of a global recession, or mass unemployment no matter what you read online.

Net income from Tech + comms services companies has grown from 23.1% in the year 2000 to 35.3% in 2025

HOWEVER, AI IS NOT LIVING UP TO EXPECTATIONS

A term was used: ‘Crap in – Crap out’.

What is being found is that the AI we know: ChatGPT, Google Gemini etc cannot be relied upon for accurate results.

Search results are based on the data that is out in the internet-o sphere. If that data is flawed then it has no way of knowing how to fact check it and hence it will produce inaccurate results. (In fact caught out ChatGPT on 3 occasions, when I knew its results were incorrect. I now use Google Gemini, which appears to be better). There is also a HUGE amount of internet fraud and scam and the culprits are using the internet to deliberately put out content which furthers their devious means. So, how can we rely on such a system? Markets are worried about the inability to overcome this problem and about a lack of innovation in AI. If we are all fishing in the same pool of information and being provided the same results then innovation and creativity grinds to a halt, and that is not good for businesses who are looking to find an competitive edge and / or increase productivity.

THE STRENGTH OF AI

But, AI probably has a more focussed strength in it’s ability to gather, organise and analyse large data sets. Private data is the real gem! It’s what you can’t see rather than already public data. I may have mentioned in my Ezine last year the example of the Lancet medical publication in the UK, which has archives going back 203 years. It is almost unimaginable that human beings would be able to reference a tiny fraction of that information, whereas they are already using AI tools to organise data and information in their business and to make it available to a much wider and much more targeted audience. Data is the new gold! Loyalty card data would be a perfect example of data which can be privately exploited by companies looking to gain a competitive edge with the use of AI tools.

AI POWER

The strange thing with AI is that the people who are probably going to make money from it are not the people directly running AI tools, but more likely the periphery businesses that are needed to keep it running: energy providers and data centres being good examples: see images below to give you an idea of just how many resources are going to have to go into running and maintaining these centres.

Could nuclear and renewables be the winners long term?

TWO MORE ITEMS

INTEREST RATES:   don’t expect rates on your cash to be rising anytime soon.  If you are sat with the majority of your assets in cash, then you should really be thinking about the long term implications of inflation on these monies.    This is exactly the scenario that governments wanted to see.  Low interest rates (which keep government benefit payments down and debt repayments low) but an inflationary economy.  They pay their debts down quicker amd erode them away,  and we feel the pinch.  You can see the interest rate trend in the chart below.

OIL

Given the US’s influence over the world’s major oil producers (Venezuela, Saudia Arabia,  Iran and Canada) , it is likely that there will be a glut of oil in the next 5 years.  This will most likely push prices down.  This is certainly what the D.T administration wants.   Energy prices and inflation should fall which could be good for US stocks in particular.   The wider US market could benefit greatly.

I hope you have enjoyed this content!   Once again apologies for the time taken to get it you.  Unfortunately I don’t even think AI is sophisticated enough…yet…to decipher my scribbles and handwriting when note taking.

As always, if you have any questions, or would just like to send me some comments on what you have read here, then feel free to do so.   I am always interested to hear your thoughts on these matters.

Equally, if you would like to follow up individually on anything then you can do so on gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or message / call me on +39 333 649 2356

We are a team of fully regulated financial advisers working across Europe, with a strong presence in Italy since 2010. Our focus is on helping expatriates, and returning Italians from abroad, who are residents or want to become residents in Italy.

1. Needing a professional to help you – Unless your financial affairs are really simple then you will likely need a professional to help you complete your tax return. Self declaring is complicated due to the codes used to complete the forms and so might not be worth your while due to the risks of getting it wrong. That being said you can get info online as to how to complete your tax return which is helpful.
2. Reddito diverso e reddito di capitale – If you have investments in something like Exchange Traded Funds, for example, the income and capital gains are treated as one type of income (reddito di capitale) and the losses as another (reddito diverso). You can’t offset one from the other even though they derive from the same asset.
3. Wealth taxes – Many countries do not have wealth taxes. Italy introduced them in 2014 when Mario Monti was Prime Minister. At the time politically, Italy was under the spotlight for its mounting debt and so wealth taxes were introduced as a way to generate more revenue for the country. Also, it harmonised the fact that taxes were paid on domestic assets but not on assets held abroad, at the time and so capital flight was rampant to evade taxes.
4. Wealth tax on property – If you have a property outside the EU, then the wealth tax is calculated on the purchase value. This may seem strange but the market value is largely subjective depending on market supply and demand and would be difficult to determine. The purchase price is documented in the purchase contract and so is a definitive sum which reference can be made to.
5. Choosing your tax rate – You can choose to have your investment income and/or gains taxed at your lowest rate of income tax IRPEF (23%), if available, or the standard flat rate on investment income (26%). This comes in useful if your total income is low and you can use up your first band of income tax. Otherwise, it’s normally better to go with the standard flat tax rate. You can also deduct certain expenses from the IRPEF choice, which can lower the rate even more. This is not possible on the standard rate.
6. There are no personal allowances or nil rate tax bands for personal income. You start paying tax on Euro No 1. If you are in retirement and in receipt of a pension/ retirement income, you may get an age-related credit, depending on your income, otherwise you can deduct some expenses such as some building costs, vets bills, pharmacy expenses and doctors bills, which can reduce your income tax bill further.

For those of you who read my last Ezine you will be happy to know that I got my wellies for Christmas and also a more than welcome surprise of a toolbelt. I feel complete! I have been putting both to good use in the last week (seeing as though we have a good weather spell), by doing some early morning ‘potatura‘ of the olive trees.

I thought I would have a go myself this year since the chap who came last year hasn’t committed and it appears to be quite hard to find people in the area who are not already booked up. So, I thought I would give it a try after reading a few books, speaking with numerous people about it and watching far too many Youtube videos on the subject.

I am quickly realising how obsessive one can become when you are pruning olive trees, regarding correct shape, removing too much or too little and wondering whether the tree is growing too high, how to train it further down, whether to cut this branch or the other one. It’s quite therapeutic actually although it appears to be rather arbitary because we have no idea where the olives will produce, how many, and if environmental factors will affect production this year. However, as my 7.30am to 9 am morning routine (when not travelling) it is a good way to start the day.

Anyway, for my readers who have been doing this for many years, I will let you be the judges. See some fotos below. (Feel free to send comments about where I might be going wrong).

Moving on from land work I wanted to send this brief Ezine out just to reconnect in the New Year. 2025 proved to be a positive year for our investment accounts and it is anyone’s guess what is in store for 2026.

I am attending the Spectrum IFA Group annual conference from the 26th to 30th January and will be doing my usual round-up Ezine when I get back. We will be speaking with Rathbones Asset Management, Evelyn Partners, Prudential, New Horizon Asset Management, LGT Wealth Management and others as well.

But, before I return (hopefully Greenland will still be a part of Europe by then) I wanted to share some information on Italy with you, as a light hearted read.

On Facebook I follow a page called Dataroom di Milena Gabanelli.     You may know of her from the programme ‘Report’, which is where I first became familiar with her around 15 years ago.    Now she works for Corriere della Sera and has her own FB channel.   It’s very interesting as they regularly put out content about Italy and global events but backed up with solid facts.

The most recent one I saw was ‘Chi paga meno tasse’.  A look at the health system and exactly where tax revenue is coming from to support the system itself.

The following is summary of the video, which is only a few minutes long, but provides some quite interesting information, which I wanted to share with you.
(The data is taken from studies of  contributi previdenziali relative dichiarazione 2023.)

Let’s analyse things a little further

With an income of €29000 gross pa there is likely to be very little margin to pay your health care expenses.   In this category fall many ‘pensionati and dipendenti’ and so we can exclude them for the purposes of the analysis.

The rest are autonomi ( self-employed people- like myself)

• 1.8 million autonomi in Italy are on the flat tax regime and so cannot be considered.
• 2.2 million autonomi pay IRPEF (normal income tax rates) and of these 1.3 million declare income under €29000pa.   This means that they pay €2 billion in tax or ONLY 8% of the whole category for the autonomi.

To analyse further to see whether any of these people have a real need or if they are working in nero, we can look to the index ISA which looks at fiscal ability to pay.  They work on a points based system and if a contribuente has under 8 points then there is the risk of fiscal evasion.

Anyone who is declaring less than they actually bring in is also paying less contributions towards the health service and also they will receive less pension, which means that the people who are paying will have to pick up the bill.

It’s no surprise that the Italian government really doesn’t have much, if any, room for manoeuvre to change tax rates and why the health service is underfunded.

Short term rentals

If you like those facts you may also like the following ones about the explosion in short term rentals in Italy (affitti brevi), which go some way to explain why many cities and famous locations in Italy are now almost impossible to visit without a tremendous amount of people all doing the same.

• In 2011 short term rental advertisements didn’t exceed 20000 in the whole of Italy
• In 2021 this number had exploded to 620000
• In 2022 to 644000
• and 2023 to 700,000 which equates to approximately 11 billion euro invoiced a year

In the market of short-term rentals Italia is No 3 in the world behind the France and the USA!

If we analyse some of this data then we can see that 75% of these rentals are in the hands of private landlords and 25% managed by agencies.

Agencies, in general, retain 35% of the income to manage the cleaning and change of sheets etc. Almost all of the advertisements are now on the digital platforms like AirBnb and Booking.com, who in general keep between 14 and 18% of the income. The same platforms have been obliged since 2017 to apply a withholding tax of 21% on gross income.

In the Legge di Bilancio 2026 this withholding tax of 21% now applies to the first property. For the second a witholding tax of 26% and for owners of 3 properties or more, they are now deemed to be a business activity and must open a partita IVA (VAT position). The war on private landlords continues, not just here in Italy but across many countries, but whether it will make much difference in the long run is anyone’s guess.

Indennità parlamentare, which is a compensation payment for being a politician and spending time away from home. It is currently €10435pm Gross or €5000-5300 pm after taxes and contributi.
Diara (per deputati e senatori) – just €3500pm
+ Expenses reimbursement.

These do not always have to be documented!!!!

They also qualify for reimbursement of travel expenses
And reimbursement of telephone expenses

Pensions
The same politicians are entitled to a pension after only 5 years of working in Parliament. (versus 20 years for the rest of us!)

Interest payments
They are also entitled to an interest rate of 5.4% on the money in their savings and current accounts. The bank pays this automatically versus the average rate for us , at about
0.2 %

And on that note I will leave it there. This Ezine was really was meant to be a light-hearted way of staying in touch.

I will be following this up from our conference with a market review from the week after next, followed by some other Ezines on tax and also organising your affairs for your loved ones.

Have you got it right?

I have been contacted by a number of people since September who have received letters from the AdE, this would not normally picque much interest for me because the AdE send regular letters out to try and weed out potential errors or omissions from your tax return in fact I have had a few myself over the years.

However this letter was of particular interest because it broached the subject of residency and non declaration of assets, at all, ever.

Over the years I have seen many times where someone has made a tax declaration, but where errors have been made and / or omissions, and the AdE have eventually caught up with the error and the individual concerned has had to correct the error, pay the back taxes and penalties. Fair enough mistakes happen and often through bad advice on the part of the commercialista but one category of people who seems to have evaded the oversight of the AdE were those people who are resident in Italy, and for one reason or another have never made a tax return here. The main reason is  because they were badly advised by a commercialista to not ‘enter the system’ or that they were declaring in another country thinking that it wasn’t necessary to do so in Italy.

However, it may look like that particular issue has been uncovered by the AdE, in fact, in a short period of about 5 weeks, I had 6 people contact me, all with very similar situations, relating to not having filed for taxes in Italy and subsequently receiving a letter from the AdE asking them to visit their local AdE office and explain the anomaly.

Whether this is an awakening for the AdE for merely just a blip is anyone’s guess but I suspect they have finally got the right hand speaking with the left hand and they will weed more of these issues out in the near future. It all corresponds nicely with the change in definition of residency from Jan 1st 2024 and so is probably the start of a wider push to make sure that everyone is doing what they should be, whether they know it or not.

So, in short, if you are resident in Italy then it is more than likely that you should be declaring your financial situation for taxes each year, if a commercialista tells you that you shouldn’t or don’t need to file, then you need to question that and not just take their word for it. I would request written, signed confirmation that this is the case. Equally, filing for taxes in another country, thinking that this is sufficient,  is generally the wrong thing to do and you may want to explore this further to avoid eventual contact from the AdE.

If you happen to be in this situation and are wondering what steps to take, do not hesitate to get in touch. I have helped many people through this situation in the past, it’s better to address the matter before being picked up by the AdE.

However, everything is cyclical and whilst UK residential property may have been a great investment, that doesn’t mean to say it will be forever. In fact, the UK property market has stalled, at the time of writing, and it remains to be seen whether it is just a pause for breath or part of a longer period of downturn for the UK property market. As I have repeated many times in the past, in times of needs, governments will turn to the real estate market to generate tax revenue because it is has been the go to investment of choice for most people. The UK budget will roll around at the end of this month and we will see what kind of moves Rachel Reeves makes on the UK property market, it is expected that she will tax properties over a certain value, but little is known at this time.  (I spoke with an investment manager in London recently who said they are bracing themselves for a ‘brutal’ budget, were his exact words).

The UK’s love affair with property investment is apparent across newspapers, daytime TV and social media. An English person’s home may be their castle – they’ve also regarded it as their nest egg (and the same for other Britons). Many have even bought additional castles, such is their ardour for property. Reflecting this, official figures show more than 2.8mn private landlords in the UK.

However, the days of strong returns from residential property are already past. The past decade has seen three pieces of bad news. House price growth has been slower; higher interest rates have squeezed the buy-to-let business model; the regulatory treatment of private landlords has become progressively less favourable.

The economic and policy outlook suggests those headwinds won’t dissipate. From 1980 to 2016, UK house prices rose 6.7% per year in absolute terms, or 3.3% in real terms (after allowing for inflation). Prices in London rose even faster: 8.5% in absolute and 5.0% in real terms. That rate of capital appreciation is considerable – and investors making an income from renting out properties would have made even more.

It’s difficult to compare returns from property exactly with returns from other investments, for various reasons – such as the cost of mending that leaky roof. But taking the crude numbers, the capital appreciation of a portfolio made up of 25% UK equities and 75% international equities would have been only slightly higher at 9.0% per year or 5.5% after inflation.

What drove high house prices?
What lay behind this? One cause is higher wages. As earnings have risen in real terms, households have been able to spend more on housing.

Between 1980 and 1998, the average UK house price rose by 2.6% above inflation per year. So too did the average wage. As result, the house price-to-earnings ratio – the average house price divided by average earnings – was similar in both years, at around 4.3, although it did fluctuate a lot between these two points.

However, since 2000, the ratio has risen to as high as 8 and never fallen below 6. So pay can’t be the whole story behind the price rises.

A fall in interest rates helped sustain higher house prices relative to earnings. Double-digit mortgage rates were the norm in the 1980s and early 1990s. But these dropped to as low as 1–2% by the late 2010s. This shift allowed buyers to borrow a lot more money for any given level of monthly repayment, bidding up house prices.

Other changes to the mortgage market have probably helped push UK house prices higher, by increasing the availability of loans and encouraging property investment. These include the entry of banks into the mortgage market, the introduction of buy-to-let mortgages, and market innovations, such as the government’s Help to Buy scheme.

Moreover, housebuilding has failed to keep pace with population growth over the past fifty years or so. In other words, demand has risen faster than supply.

Productivity, rates and policy
But conditions for house price growth now look much less fertile. After a period of far outstripping inflation, average earnings have grown much more slowly lately. Even if we ignore declining real wages in the early 2010s, they’ve only outpaced inflation by 0.5% a year since 2016. In the long run, real-terms wage growth is closely linked to productivity – companies generally only pay their workers more if they’re getting more from them. But productivity growth has in recent years been low – and we don’t foresee a dramatic improvement anytime soon.

Moreover, mortgage rates have risen in the past few years. The average 2-year fixed-rate 75% loan-to-value mortgage rate has climbed from 1.2% in 2021 to above 4% since 2022, according to the Bank of England. This has pushed up first-time buyers’ repayments. We don’t see a return to the abnormally low interest rate environment of the 2010s.

On top of higher interest rates, unfavourable tax changes and tighter regulation have added to costs. For example, stamp duty on additional properties was hiked in 2016 and again in 2024.

Moreover, the housing supply pipeline is flowing better. Although the government has fallen short of its housebuilding targets for years, the annual net increase in dwellings has crept back up since 2015, returning to above 200,000. On this measure, the housing stock is growing at the fastest rate since the 1960s.

End of the affair
With those fading tailwinds in mind, it’s little surprise that UK house prices have risen by a much more pedestrian 3.7% per year, in absolute terms, since 2016. That’s only about the same as inflation. Over the same period, the portfolio of UK and international equities we mentioned earlier rose by 7.2% a year.

We think this trend will continue. In our view, it may be time for the British to break off their love affair with the housing market and embark on a new one, with a diversified portfolio of financial assets. After all, 10- year UK government bonds offer yields above 4% and there’s a wide selection of high-quality names across the world’s stock markets. It might not be the most romantic of trysts, but we think it’s likely to offer them a better return in the long term.

Little did we know how far we would come so quickly ! In the year 2000 there was much hype about this future and that fuelled what is now called the ‘tech boom’ in dot com stocks. Inevitably, this created a bubble in dot com stocks and a subsequent crash in the markets when investors realised a lot of the hype was largely based on fresh air and not much substance.

I have been asked quite a few times in the last month or 2, about the possibility of something similar happening in AI and tech stocks today.

It must be said that the circumstances are quite different this time round. Companies are actually profitable in 2025, and A.I will create problems in the employment market, but also deliver productivity gains.

(Interestingly, I saw an article the other day saying that Italian companies who had laid off employees to benefit from cost and productivity gains from the introduction of AI systems, were doing an about face and re-hiring those same workers because they realised that AI was not going to deliver all those gains which they had been promised).

Anyway, rather than writing a long discourse on the topic I asked Chris Saunders of New Horizon Asset Management what he thought, on this short video with my question and his answer. I hope you find it interesting.

Now, as I have often been heard saying, they are just playing around the margins and this kind of tax reduction will hardly have any real impact for most people who might be struggling with higher prices of the last few years and facing a continued erosion of their income. However, it is still something and in line with the promises made by the current sitting government. (At time of writing it does look like this will be approved and implemented from 2026).

Possible increased tax on rental properties?

This is the one that is creating the greatest political friction at the moment and, so what is it?

The proposal is to increase the cedolare secca tax on rental properties from 21% to 26% from 2026.

Cedolare secca 21% is the tax that is paid on rental property income, where selected, and is a kind of forfeit rate. The income from cedolare secca is not taken into account when calculating your other total income subject to income tax (IRPEF) and so is quite attractive for most. There are some disadvantages, which I won’t go into here because in the main the 21% tax rate is the go to option for most. However, it is proposed to bring this up to 26% on rental income (for private renters, rental agencies and rental agencies online).

As per the UK, see above, real estate is a go to cash cow for governments when they are looking to raise revenue and so this move (although likely to be watered down or removed altogether because Forza Italia are not in agreement and will not vote for the proposed change) is something that we will likely see happen more often.

If, as may be intended, it is being introduced to cool the housing market and, especially in the big cities, cool the rental market itself, I am sceptical that it will have an effect at all. Having lived in Rome for the last 20 years and seeing the explosion in the Airbnb apartment for rent, and the constant stream of tourists to occupy those places then I can’t see that an increase of 5% will hurt that much, other than those who have high debt levels to service.

Anyway, it’s something worth watching, in case you have a rental property, or part of property in Italy which you are generating income from.

An IPO (Initial Public Offering) is where a private company decides to list on the public stock exchange so that it can raise capital and offer its share to investors. They normally choose to do this when they reach a certain size, as a way of accelerating company growth. In which jurisdiction they do this is important because it can generate a lot of revenue for the financial sector in that country, create jobs and also secures the attractiveness of the financial centre as a place that is deemed safe and secure to list publicly.

London used to be one of the preferred jurisdictions, but as you can see, in 2025, that is no longer the case. London now holds spot No 23 on the list behind some important newer entries, such as Hong Kong, China and India.

What this says about London’s long term future is anyone’s guess but it is interesting information all the same. (Could Brexit have played a part?) . It probably says more about the ever increasing importance of Asian economies and the continued importance of the USA.

Hello again and welcome back to my Ezine after the summer break. I hope you are well and that the somewhat fresher Italian summer was a surprise for you as well. We were not sweltering in 38 degrees this year but enjoying a more pleasurable low 30s for most of the summer. It was a welcome change from last year, for example, when I saw the last rain in mid-May and not again until mid/end Sept.

It was also my first holiday away after our change of lifestyle to the country and with all this land, trees, and plants to manage. I have to say that although time at the beach was great and a welcome break from the country, I did find myself wanting to come back and see how all the plants were doing and also how the olives were developing after lots of summer rainstorms. It was pure curiosity because on my return I found that the whole situation is largely as it was last year at the same time. Grass needs cutting, and a few other jobs need doing, but in general everything is coming along nicely.

For those of you with whom I am friends on FB, you will have seen that I came back to a bumper crop of apples, pears, and figs. The figs are finding their way into my pancia quite quickly and are super delicious. (and I have my new wicker basket for collection – which my wife jokingly bought me at a ‘sagra’ event recently, very Laura Ashley)

The baseline rule is that if you are a resident in Italy and you sell a property after the first full five fiscal years from purchase (not your Prima Casa – different rules apply here, read on for details), you are NOT required to pay tax on any capital gain (CGT) resulting from the sale. This applies to properties you hold in Italy or abroad and applies whether it is your 2nd or 15th property!

This stems from the idea of a speculative intent to buy/sell property and where there is no intent then capital gains tax is not applied. (a nice tax planning opportunity!)

Speculation in Italy is defined as follows:

• the property is sold for consideration (e.g. sale, exchange, contribution to a company)
• the property is sold within five years of purchase or construction
• the property must not have been used as the seller’s (or family’s) main residence if it is a residential unit.

These rules also apply to property located abroad!

If the sale is subject to taxation (because you are selling within the first 5 years since purchase), then you can either opt for:

A substitute tax of 26% (standard capital gains tax rate) at the time of the deed (the notary is responsible for the payment), or
The standard income tax rates (IRPEF), with the possibility of using deductible and creditable expenses such as bonus edilizie, pharmacy expenses, doctors’ bills, etc. Bear in mind that the lowest rate of income tax in Italy is also 23%, so depending on your other income for the year you could fall in the lowest rate of income tax (€0–28,000 p.a.) and be able to reduce the taxable amount even further with deductions.

Below is a list of the main rules to consider:

Taxable conditions
As with all things taxation, it is important to understand the conditions:

• Capital gains tax applies as a result of property purchased, or built, less than five years earlier.
• An exemption is given for urban residential units that, for most of the time between purchase (or construction) and sale, were used as the main residence of the seller or their family. (The idea of Prima Casa)
• As well as, in all cases, capital gains realised from the sale of land that can be used for building (terreno edificabile) according to planning rules in force at the time of the sale.

In the case of donated/inherited property, the five-year period is calculated from the donor’s acquisition date.

(This is particularly important for anyone who might inherit a property from a deceased parent, for example. If you wish to dispose of the property it would be more advantageous to do so in the probate process, otherwise you may have to wait another 5 years before you could dispose of the property to avoid capital gains tax…. if any). However, if you take the property into your name and then can sell it quickly, you may avoid capital gains tax if the property value has not increased between the acquisition and sale.

Exemptions
Exempt from taxation are:

• Sales of properties used as the seller’s or their family’s main residence for most of the period between purchase/construction and resale (the 5-year rule does not apply here – Prima Casa rule!).
• Sales of inherited properties (per Article 67, paragraph 1, letter b) TUIR).

Speculative operations: property flipping
If you fancy yourself as a property magnate and decide to try your hand at buying, renovating, and then selling repeatedly within the 5 years (“property flipping”), this constitutes a commercial activity and in this case:

• The capital gains are taxable, and
• The seller is required to operate as a business with VAT registration and related tax and social security obligations.

Calculation of taxable capital gain
It’s a simple formula:

Sale price – (Purchase price / Construction cost + related documented costs)

Allowable related costs include:

• Notarial and accessory expenses,
• Indirect taxes paid at purchase (registration, mortgage, cadastral taxes, or VAT),
• Improvement expenses (extraordinary maintenance, renovations),
• Costs for removing tenants.

It is important to keep all documentation relating to any property purchase/sale for at least 10 years in Italy.

For construction:

• Building contracts, design fees, municipal charges, post-construction improvements.

The gain is taxable in the year the payment is received.

Other cases

• Donation: 5 -year period runs from donor’s acquisition date.
• Built by seller: 5-year period runs from completion.
• Main residence: exempt if used as main home for most of the ownership period, even within 5 years.
• Building land: always taxable when sold; substitute tax cannot be applied.
• Agricultural land: taxable only if sold within 5 years.
• Property with buildings to be demolished: treated as building land → taxable.
• Previously subdivided property: taxation depends on whether subdivision counts as new construction.

Statute of limitations for tax assessments

The Agenzia delle Entrate can assess omitted/under-reported gains:

– Within 5 years from the year after the tax return was filed;

So there we have it.   All the facts regarding capital gains tax and property in Italy.   For most people I know it rarely comes into consideration because the properties are owned for more than 5 years.   However, on odd occasion CGT needs to be considered.    For somewhere like the UK that introduced CGT on property purchases for non UK residents, the tax interest lies in the UK and not in Italy which is a relief because you don’t have to worry about paying it in 2 places.   However, if you think it is applicable to you, then take the necessary advice before you sell.

Pensions, detractions, deductions and more……

I wanted to share some info on pensions (state/social security and personal) and the tax deductions and detractions that you/we can take advantage of in Italy to help reduce our taxable burden in this article .

As it has been observed many times, unlike many countries which offer non-taxable income allowances (US and UK as examples), Italy does not. Therefore we pay tax from Euro number 1. However, Italy does also have a system of deductions and detractions which can be used to offset against income to try and reduce the tax burden. If I am being honest I can’t say that they are as good as a non-taxable allowance in terms of their effect on income, but they can be help.

Pensions

Regarding the subject of UK pension payment:

UK state pension.
I am not sure why but a number of people have contacted me since 2024 to say that their commercialista is now saying that you need to declare your UK state pension on your Italian tax return and pay tax on it.  It has always been the case that it needed to be declared.  This is, of course, is the correct course of action but makes me question why some commercialisti are only now waking up to this fact. It always worries me when I get a surge of the same enquiry. My concern is for those people who have been legitimately taking advice from well meaning professionals who have not been doing the right thing and will now start to file. This could mean that the Agenzia delle Entrate will be alerted to the fact and may come asking for back payments, fines and penalties. If this is the case then they have 5 years to do so, and they have a sneaky habit of doing so about 4 years and a few months after the filing.

If you find yourself in such a situation then please remember that your commercialista has to carry insurance in the event of them mis-advising you. As long as you have the proof that they did so (which may be the hardest thing to prove because often they just provided verbal confirmation that something did not need declaring) then you can ask them to carry any costs incurred by you as a result of an error on their part. The hard part is proving it and then having that discussion with them. Check those historical emails discussions!!!

Sign the P85 with HMRC
On a similar note I recently met 2 people (2025) in the same Umbrian comune who had received a letter from the AdE which stated that they were no longer able to apply for the double taxation credit for tax paid in the UK on their UK personal / occupational pension payments. Now, this might sound like a contravention of the double taxation treaty, but as the AdE stated in their letter (which I managed to gain sight of), the correct action is that when someone leaves the UK with a pension in payment, they must apply to HMRC for gross income payments by applying through the DT (double taxation) individual form on the HMRC website. Failure to do so means that the AdE is not obliged to offer any tax credit for tax paid in the UK and instead can charge full Italian tax. This means that you could pay in Italy and the UK until such time as you have received a gross payment authorisation from the UK: Back payments can be claimed from HMRC (where tax credits have not been awarded already) by completing the DT individual form but this can take time.

In my experience, over the last 15 years, Umbria and Tuscany have always been at the leading edge of tax legislation and implementing it to the letter of the law so its not beyond imagination that this may spread out across Italy. However, there are instances in Abruzzo and Marche as well. If you are the holder of a UK pension, are still paying tax in the UK and claiming that back through the credito d’imposta option every year, it would be advisable to apply for UK gross pension payments via the DT indivdual claim form on the HMRC website, before the AdE refuses you the option and you end up paying twice. https://www.gov.uk/tax-right-retire-abroad-return-to-uk

• Deductible expenses (oneri deducibili) reduce your taxable income, meaning you pay tax on a lower income.
• Detractable expenses (oneri detraibili) give you a direct reduction in the tax you owe – usually a 19% tax credit on the value of item you are claiming, unless otherwise specified.

Both are valuable, and knowing the difference helps you understand how the savings work.

Healthcare expenses (19%)

Without a doubt the most common category is healthcare expenses ( detractable at 19%)

What you can claim is as follows:

• Pharmacy receipts (scontrini parlanti) showing the name of the medicine and your tax code (codice fiscale)
• Doctor visits (GPs and specialists)
• Surgeries and hospital stays (private and public)
• Diagnostic tests, X-rays, and blood work
• Dental care (e.g., orthodontics, if medically necessary
• Physiotherapy and rehabilitation
• Medical devices (e.g., glasses, hearing aids, prosthetics)

There is a franchigia related to these expenses, which means that it is only the accumulated expenses over €129.11 which are considered eligible. If your total health expenses are below this amount then you cannot detract from tax. (You cannot claim this credit if the expense is covered by insurance)

To give an example……if my total expenses are €800 during the year, then the calculation is €800 – €129,11 = €670,89, on which I apply the 19% tax credit = €127,47 tax credit.

This example may not seem much but a few years ago I had to have some urgent dental care which cost €10,000. It was not covered by insurance and so I had to pay myself. That year I had a tax credit of €1875,46. Every little helps.

So, for all those trips to the farmacia make sure you present your codice fiscale to the pharamcist and they will normally tell you whether it is an item that qualifies or not.

** FARMACIA AND HEALTH EXPENSES ARE NOW REGISTERED AUTOMATICALLY ON THE AGENZIA DELLE ENETRATE WEBSITE (YOU CAN ACCESS THE WEBSITE AND CHECK THEM YOURSELF) HOWEVER THERE ARE OCCASIONS WHEN THEY DON’T APPEAR SO MAKE SURE YOU KEEP YOUR RECEIPTS AND GIVE THEM TO YOUR COMMERCIALISTA / FISCALISTA WHEN YOU FILE YOUR RETURNS **

Home renovations and energy efficiency (various rates from 36% to 50%)

This is by far and away the next biggest category for gaining tax credits. I know myself because in 2024 we spent alot of our savings on the new home and this year we will be applying for almost all of these bonuses as tax credits.

The key incentives for home improvements are as follows:

• Bonus Ristrutturazioni (Renovation Bonus) – 50% for general home upgrades
• Ecobonus – 50–65% for energy-saving improvements (e.g., insulation, windows, solar panels)

On your ‘Prima Casa’ you can claim a 50% tax credit up to a maximum spend of €96000, spread over 10 years.

On your second home or property (other than Prima Casa) it is a 36% on a maxi psend of €96000 spread over 10 years.
(excluding boilers which burn fossil fuels, such as caldaia gas)

• Sismabonus – 50% on Prima Casa for 2025 then 36% for 2026/27 for work related to protection against sismic risks
  36% on non-Prima Casa in 2025, falling to 30% from 2026/27.
• Bonus mobili (e grande elettrodomestici) – tax credit of 50% on spend of up to €5000 on electrical appliances and furniture that are linked to renovations.
• Nuovo contributo per elettrodomestici ad alta efficienza – 30% up to €100 discount on electrical domestic appliance purchases, outside renovation works
• Green Bonus – 36% on garden and green area improvements.

A FEW THINGS I LEARNED BY GOING THROUGH WORKS LAST YEAR:

1. All payments must be made by traceable means i.e bonifico or credit card payment. No trace, no bonus!
2. If paying by bonifico then you need to use the bonifico per agevolazione fiscale option with your bank NOT the bonifico ordinario option. It asks for more info, such as the partitia IVA of the company / person you have worked with and this is needed for the bonus.
3. If you employ single workmen working alone then you don’t need an authorisation (SCIA or CIA) from the local authority but if they are a ‘dita edilizia’ (this can include even 2 people working together as a construction company) then you need to have a ‘piano di sicurezza’ from an architect who will need to draw that up and provide you with the necessary numbers/reference codes. No ‘piano di sicurezza’ no bonus! (Our’s cost about €1000)
4. Your workmen can apply for 10% IVA (VAT) on purchased items, but this is not necessarily a given. Our commercialista recommended that we signed a document ‘richiesta di applicazione dell’IVA ad aliquota ridotta’ for each workman / company so they would be authorised to apply for it as the materials would fall under the approved renovation works.

Insurance premiums

This is a category which people often fail to utilise because there are some questions over whether foreign insurance premiums paid can be deducted in an Italian tax return.

The policies which qualify are Life insurance, accident ( both max €530) and long-term care insurance (LTC) – (€1291)

They must qualify ( even if issued outside Italy) under the following conditions:

1. Policy must be with an EU or EEA-authorized insurer (i.e. the company must be licensed to operate in the EU/EEA under EU regulations).
2. The policy must cover eligible risks: life, accidents, disability, or LTC.
3. The beneficiary must be the taxpayer or close family (not a third party like a bank).
4. The contract must not be speculative (e.g., pure investment policies are excluded unless they include real coverage of life or disability).

I myself still insist on entering my life policies issued in the UK years ago, before Brexit, and which cover me throughout the EU and were issued whilst the UK was still in the EU. I principally have life insurance contracts with Legal and General and they provide cover across the EU. The other alternative is to take out Italian equivalent policies especially for things like health insurance. It’s worth getting a quote from one of the bigger insurance providers such as Generali (or Genertel, their online offering) Allianz, Zurich, Groupama, Unipol Sai, Banca Intesa, Reale etc

Other categories include:

Donations (19-30%)
donations to recognised NGO’s, religious institutions or universities.

Mortgage interest (19%)
You can deduct interest on mortgages for your first home (prima casa) up to a cap of €4,000 per year.

Education expenses (19%)

• Kindergarten through university tuition (both public and private, up to limits)
• School meals and after-school program
• University housing (if located outside the student’s home province)

Max annual deduction for private schools may vary by level and region, with a cap around €800 per child.

Rental deductions

If you rent your main home, you may claim a tax credit based on your income and contract type.

For example: Ordinary rental contracts (contratto 4+4), Student housing and transfers for work (if you’ve moved for employment reasons)

The credit varies depending on income, age, and contract type (e.g., up to €495.80 or more).

Family related deductions and credits

Dependent children and other family members, alimony and maintenance payments (deductible), Nursery/kindergarten costs (detraction up to €632 per child)

Disabled persons (LEGGE 104/1992 BENEFITS)
Special deductions and detractions for people with disabilities or their caregivers, including: 19% for adapted vehicles (with limits), full deduction of medical devices, assistance costs, etc.

Sport and Youth activities (19%)

Up to €210 per child under 18 for gym, swimming, dance classes, etc. Applies to recognized sports facilities and clubs.

If you would like to discuss these or any other tax or financial planning related issues for your life in Italy then please don’t hesitate to contact me on  gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or call / message on +39 3336492356
Always happy to help where I can!

If you want to know more about me or the things I do then just click here. 

Understanding your taxes and timing of tax payment in Italy

It’s that time of the year again folks!
am always given warning that tax time is approaching because a number of clients start to ask for valuations of accounts, interpretation of some documents and also help with organising and sharing some documents with commercialisti.

TAX ON INCOME

INCOME TAX RATES FOR 2025 (IRPEF)
In a move to simplify the tax regime in Italy the tax bands have now moved from 4 to 3 in 2024.

PENSIONS

Most of my clients are in, or planning for, retirement to some degree and so understanding how your pension will be taxed as a resident in Italy is of paramount importance.
PRIVATE PENSIONS AND OCCUPATIONAL PENSIONS (Income tax rates – IRPEF)

Private pension provider income: 401K / IRA’s etc / Occupational pensions / Personal pension income / State pension or social security.

All these types of pension incomes fall into the income tax rates ( IRPEF), they are added together and the rates applied to the progressive bands of income.

GOVERNMENT DERIVED PENSIONS

(tax in country of origin unless Italian citizen!)

The definition according to the Italy / UK / USA double taxation convention 1988 is, paid from:

” a political or an administrative subdivision or a local authority”

The pension awarded is generally taxable only in the state in which it originates and tax is generally deducted at source in that country of origin, unless your are an Italian citizen and then it becomes taxable in Italy as well.

(Check the double taxation treaty from the country in which the pension payments originate)

(This income is not taken into account when calculating the tax on your other income sources in Italy, e.g. rental income, and it is not declared on your tax declaration in Italy)

HOWEVER, the more your total income, from all sources, increases over €8500, the more of the tax credit you lose.

If your total income is €50000 or above you would not receive any tax credit.

BANK ACCOUNTS AND DEPOSITS

A very simple to understand and acceptable €34.20 per annum is applied to each conto corrente e libretto di risparmio: current account or deposit account. This would typically include fixed deposits, short terms cash deposits, CD’s etc. The charge is the equivalent of the ‘imposta da bollo’ which is applied to all Italian deposit accounts each year.
(Money market accounts, premium Bonds in the UK and other deposit based instruments will not generally fall in this category and would be subject to wealth tax – see below)
Interest income is taxed at 26%.

INVESTMENT INCOME AND CAPITAL GAINS (26%)

A flat tax rate of 26% is payable on interest and income payments from capital and realised capital gains are also taxed at the same rate of 26%.

(Interest from Italian government bonds and government bonds from ‘white list’ countries are still taxed at 12.5% rather than 26%, as detailed above. This is another quirk of Italian tax law as this means that you pay less tax as a holder of government bonds in Pakistan or Kazakhstan, than a holder of corporate bonds from Italian giants ENI or FIAT).

If you are invested in NON-EU harmonised collective investment vehicles i.e. funds which are listed in a place outside the EU, then the gains and income from these assets are NOT taxed at the flat 26% rate in Italy, but would be added to the rest of your income for the year and taxed at your highest marginal rate of income tax! Funds or ETF’s, for example, which re listed in the UK with a GB ISIN code or in the US with an equivalent US number, would fall into this category.

This is particularly important for UK and USA domiciled assets. If you have a brokerage account with a group such as Fidelity or Vanguard or one of the many other asset management firms, or you invest through a platform such as Hargreaves Lansdown in the UK/USA, then depending on which assets you invest in could mean you are pushing yourself into a higher tax bracket on taxable gains and income for the year. Your portfolio may need restructuring for life in Italy!

WEALTH TAX ON ASSETS (0.2% PA)

Any financial assets other than property attract an annual wealth tax of 0.2% on the value of the asset as at the 31st December each year.

Here are examples of a few:
GENERAL INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS, ISAS, BROKERAGE ACCOUNTS, PLATFORMS, DISCRETIONARY MANAGED PORTFOLIO, DIRECT INVESTMENT IN FUNDS, STOCKS AND SHARES, COMMODITIES, ART WORK, CLASSIC CARS, ETC.

If the assets are located in one of tax regimes around the world which are considered fiscally privileged by the Italian authorities, then the rate of tax is 0.4% pa. The list can be found at the end of this article HERE

INCOME FROM OVERSEAS PROPERTY (Income tax rates – IRPEF)

Overseas net property income (after allowable expenses in the country in which is located) is added to your other income for the year and taxed at your highest progressive rate of income tax.

THE WEALTH TAX OF 1.06% ON THE VALUE OF THE PROPERY (IVIE)

For properties based in the EU, the value on which this tax is based is the Italian cadastral equivalent. You will find that the market value will, in most cases, to be significantly more than the cadastral equivalent value. For a list of the different tax values across Europe see the table below.

For properties located outside the EU (inc the UK/USA/Canada/Australia/NZ etc) the value for tax purposes is defined as the acquisition value (purchase /inherited/acquired) where this can be evidenced, otherwise it is the current market value of the property.

DISPOSAL OF PROPERTY

Disposal of properties both abroad and in Italy (exc prima casa) are not deemed speculative if you have owned the property for more than 5 full tax years and therefore are not capital gains tax liable on the disposal, in Italy.

NOTE: If you gain residency in Italy then by default your previous ‘first home’ or ‘family home’ for the purposes of the Italian tax authorities is now classified as an investment property. By definition, if you have a home in Italy and a property in another country, even if you consider this property your family home, it can no longer be considered your ‘Prima Casa’ for Italian tax purposes.

If you have any questions about any of these taxes and how they might apply to you and your individual financial situation, or if you think that you might be paying more than need to, then do get in touch and I will be happy to see if I can help you with your plans.

I can be contacted on email: gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or on cell: +39 333 6492356

Well, as you might have expected I have decided to write to you at this particularly fragile moment in world politics, and which has now reverberated around world investment markets. As of Friday last week a sell off started in the equity markets which effectively created a bear market situation around the world for fears of global recession based on the Trump tariffs. (as of today we have seena slight rebound, but more volatility is likely)

What was your reaction? Maybe we were too distracted by the pandemic to really pay much attention – and rightly so! but what about when Russian invaded Ukraine and it sent global markets into a panic and a global inflation spike, sending us from years of disinflation and near zero interest rates, to an overnight significant rise in prices which to date continues. Did you panic sell off your portfolio?

Probably the answer is no and you did the right thing because markets rebounded (albeit more slowly after the Russia Ukraine war) but they did and the same happened after 2008 Financial Crisis and 2010 Euro crisis: hanging on and riding through the panic was the best thing to do… and it is now!

You might argue ‘It’s different this time’ ; the whole world is changing and markets will never recover. If you think this then I would coach you to read the book, ‘It’s different this time -Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’ by Reinhart and Rogoff. Largely financial markets are governed by human behaviour and that has not changed since time began, or at least over the last 8 centuries according to the data they present.

Please also bear in mind that success for every US President is judged on the US stock market. Most, if not all Americans, have significant assets invested in the US stock market and so it is a sign of health of the US economy and more importantly a measure of the US Presidents success at home ( interestingly, Pres. Trump’s favourability ratings have increased from 48% at election time to 53% now. clearly, he is increasingly approved of in the USA).

After reading so much on this topic and trying to syphon through the almost hourly noise, my view is that he is front loading all the bad news now to get it out of the way. He knows that come the mid-terms in 2026 he needs to have made significant inroads into making good on his promises to the American people and for that reason he is getting the worst out of the way now, whilst he can, after which a flurry of good news will likely follow.

1. Get oil prices lower
Gas at the pump is the beating heart of the America middle class and the Trump administration will go to any lengths to reduce the price of oil at the pumps. (When I was in New York in February the gas at the pump, I calculated, cost €1 a litre!!!!!!! – compare that to the the €1.59 a litre, this morning, that I just paid for diesel. Petrol was €0.20 higher still). So, if this administration can reduce gas prices further that could stimulate a mini economic boom in the US.

Bear in mind that the US is already the worlds largest producer of oil at 40% higher than its nearest competitor ( Saudi Arabia). Pres. Trump has stated clearly that he wants to aim for 100% energy independence and I think they will not just aim for it but do it at any cost.

(It should be noted that I paid €1.59 a litre for diesel this morning. 1 week ago it was €1.67. – Is his strategy working?)

2. Mortgages are the second lever to pull
If he wants the American public to gain confidence in his policies then he needs to give them breathing room economically (i.e. more money in their pockets) and he can then continue to go about reshaping the US economy . (At time of writing, with pressure building on a possible recession, pressure is equally being heaved on Jerome Powell – head of the Federal Reserve, to reduce interest rates). Was the market correction manufactured to some degree, or at least expected, to pressure the Fed to reduce interest rates?

This administration has also openly stated that they will also look to deregulate the banking industry, to release them from overly administrative and bureaucratic procedures and to allow them to get back to banking. This will also assist in bringing interest rates down. (This point I can fully agree with :banking regulation, anti money laundering legislation, source of wealth and origin of wealth obligatory requirements have become, quite frankly , out of control and any simplification in this regard, in my opinion, is warranted).

3. Lastly – the Trump administration will focus on food price inflation

Remember to watch out for the first 100 days of the Pres. Trump term which is often linked to his early successes; the 100th day lands on April the 29th!

So, there you have it, a few thoughts of my own on the Trump administration and why it might not be as bad as it seems.

So, let me turn to the technical for a moment: some data about market volatility.

The data below courtesy of one of our investment management partners, New Horizon Investment Management.

When markets turn volatile, perspective is everything

This market volatility feels tumultuous but, of course, we’ve been here before. The table below reveals that after severe drawdowns, the market has often recovered the full decline and finished the year strongly positive.

Years to Note:

• 1970: Market fell -26% from peak to trough… yet ended +3.6%
• 1975: Dropped -14.1%, but closed the year up +37%
• 1987 (Black Monday): Down -33.5% mid-year, still finished +5.8%
• 2009: Deep in the Global Financial Crisis, dropped -27.6%, yet ended +26.5%
• 2020: COVID crash brought a -33.9% drawdown… ended +18.4%

On each occasion, the best course of action would have been to avoid the noise and stay invested.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain

Whatever happens in the market we have bigger things to worry about!

Besides, when markets sell off, why on earth would you not buy into them at these prices? They are at bargain basement prices and as the saying goes ‘fill your boots!’ I had a measly amount of cash available to invest and have taken advantage of these prices.

Let me tell you a couple of my own investment tales:

My first tale which I have written about before was during the financial crisis of 2008 ( which by the way was a many times worse than what we are going through today) and my wife had just sold a house in the UK and we had some cash to invest. I knew I had to invest but I was very nervous because, working at the coal face of what was happening at that time, I knew that things were very serious. However, I also knew the theory of markets and that the best time to buy was in the height of the chaos. I went for it and the next 3 months were tragic and I lost 20% in value on the portfolio. (I never told me wife!) 6 months later the portfolio was up 45% ! It should be noted that I am an adventurous investor profile and so was invested 100% in equity ; it was a wild ride I can tell you but I knew the logic and I just had to be patient. Later we needed that money for something else and had to sell a sizeable portion of it, but it did its job.

My other tale is that at the start of my career as a financial planner I thought I was smarter than the market itself and that I could time my way in. I waited and waited and…. waited for the right entry point, waiting for a decent correction to buy in at the price I deemed to be right. I arrogantly waited 6 years before buying in! (What an idiot!) I can’t even bring myself to calculate the gains that I missed in those 6 years even with the correction that happened.

Lesson: It’s time in the markets, not timing the markets, that counts…

As I said to someone recently “I have made all the mistakes in the books, so you don’t have to!”

Again, it might be useful to provide some perspective here because the all so surreptitious march of inflation is often upon us when we notice it, by which time it is far too late to do anything about it.

1. The price of my journey to Rome on the autostrada from Orte has increased from €4.50 in 2024 to €4.80 in 2025. That’s a 6.6% increase. I track this price and it has never, in my 20 years in Italy, increased at inflation levels or under. Always above!

2. The water machine in central Amelia, where I go to fill our drinking water bottles was 5 cents for a litre and half, they have just changed the machine and it’s now 5 cents a litre. That’s a 33.3% increase. (It’s hardly breaking the bank but a great example)

3. The news on RAI announced a few nights ago that the price of Colomba Easter cake is up 31% year on year and Easter eggs up 26%.

4. I took my son to KFC 2 weeks ago, reluctantly, and asked for the 4 large pieces of chicken. The last time I went to KFC was about 15 years ago and I remember these 4 huge pieces of chicken. Now, the 4 pieces resembled the size of 4 larger nuggets. Shrink inflation in practice so if you can’t increase your prices, reduce the amount of product. It has the same effect !

OK, I hear you say ‘These are not everyday items’ but they do reflect the general trend of the stealthy march of inflation.

Be under no illusion that this is your main financial enemy and investing is your only tool to protect yourself from it!

Investing requires patience and courage…or a financial adviser who you can ring and let off some steam. Make sure you can tap into any of these things if you get concerned about world events and market volatility!

So, on this happy point let me leave you with this information about the life ahead of you.

Life Expectancy 

More people needing to finance live beyond 90th birthday

• Ratio of women over age 90 to men was about 2:1 in 2023
• The number of people aged 90+ has doubled over the last 30 years
• The ratio of women over age 90 to men was 2:1 in 2023 compared to 4:1 in the 1980’s. About one in every 100 people is now aged at least 90.
• The odds of living to beyond 90 are high enough that people shouldn’t assume it can’t happen to them. Historically, this has been mainly women but the numbers of men are catching up fast.
• For those who are age 66 this year there is about a one in 3 chance (33%) for men and nearly an evens chance (46%) for women of making it to at least age 90 and if they do get to age 90 there is nearly an even chance they will survive to beyond 9%

The message: Think long term and not Donald Trump term!

If you would like to let off some steam with me or discuss any of what is going on in the world, tax or financial planning related issues in Italy then please don’t hesitate to contact me on: gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or call / message on +39 3336492356

Always happy to help where I can!