I Do Love a Bargain
I know it’s almost summer, but is there anything better than the hope and expectation that builds around Christmas. It’s the best time of the year for me.
By Michael Doyle
This article is published on: 25th May 2025

I Do Love a Bargain
I know it’s almost summer, but is there anything better than the hope and expectation that builds around Christmas. It’s the best time of the year for me.
Not only do we get to enjoy all the trappings that come with the festive time of year but on Boxing Day the madness begins!!!!
The trainers that were €130 have been reduced to €60, the jacket that was out of reach at €400 is now €240, the sports T-shirts that just 2 days ago were €40 are now €20. What a time to buy.
There’s something similar happening in the markets right now and I just wanted to take a few minutes to explain why I think now could be a great time to invest.
The markets have been bumpy — and that’s a gift in plain wrapping. Volatility creates opportunities. Quality companies with strong fundamentals often get marked down along with the rest of the market, offering savvy investors the chance to buy value at a discount. If you’ve read my other articles, you’ll know I’m partial to the odd quote from Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Right now? There’s more caution than confidence. That’s your opening.
While central banks have taken us on a wild ride with interest rates, there are early signs of stabilization. Inflation is cooling in many regions. As economic data settles, interest rates may begin to ease, restoring more predictable conditions for both equities and bonds. Those who position themselves before the pivot are typically the ones who benefit most.
Time in the market beats timing the market — every time. The longer your money is invested, the more it compounds. Trying to wait for the “perfect” moment often leads to missed gains. Historically, the market’s best days tend to cluster near its worst days — miss those, and you risk missing most of the upside.
I wrote an article on this a few years back which still holds true today. You can read it here.
From AI and biotech to clean energy and space tech, we’re witnessing a new industrial revolution. These aren’t just exciting ideas; they’re multi-trillion-euro transformations already reshaping global economies. Investing now means getting in before the wave crests — not after.
The global landscape is broader than ever. While some markets face headwinds, others are thriving. A well-diversified portfolio — across sectors, regions, and asset classes — isn’t just a shield, it’s a springboard. With the right structure, you can grow your wealth through both sunny and stormy weather.

Because uncertainty is the soil where opportunity grows. Because prices reflect fear, not fundamentals. Because the future isn’t waiting — it’s happening now.
As your financial adviser, my job is to help you see the forest through the trees, and to guide you with strategies that match your goals, timeline, and comfort level — especially when others are sitting on the sidelines.
Let’s have a conversation. Your future wealth might just thank you for acting today.
The best time to invest? Yesterday. The second-best time? Right now.
You can now book a 30 minute zoom meeting with me (at your convenience) by clicking here
By Michael Doyle
This article is published on: 22nd May 2025

I’m Scottish and I live between France and Luxembourg. I moved to Luxembourg in 2008 and then France around 2015 and have commuted between both for a lot of my time with Spectrum. Needless to say my French has improved over time (as long as people speak to me as if I’m 6 year old child).
One of the things though that I still struggle with is some of the terms they use, eg Pédaler dans la semoule which seemingly means going around in circles. I always wondered why people were pedalling around in semolina.
It got me to thinking that I often assume people know all of the terms we use in financial planning, so here I’ve decided to try and break down the barriers.

A stock represents partial ownership in a company. When you own a stock, you own a slice of that business — known as a “share” — and have a claim on its assets and earnings. Stocks are traded on public exchanges, and their value fluctuates based on the company’s performance, investor sentiment, and broader market conditions. Investors often buy stocks to participate in a company’s growth and, potentially, receive dividends.
A share is a single unit of ownership in a company, essentially your piece of the total stock issued. If a company issues 1 million shares and you own 10,000 of them, you own 1% of the company. Shares entitle the holder to a portion of the company’s profits (via dividends) and voting rights in some corporate decisions. Shares can rise or fall in value depending on market demand and the underlying company’s performance.
A bond is a type of loan that investors give to governments, municipalities, or corporations. In return, the issuer agrees to pay back the principal amount on a set date and provide regular interest payments over the life of the bond. Bonds are considered fixed-income investments and are often used to provide portfolio stability and predictable income, especially in contrast to more volatile assets like stocks.
An ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, is a pooled investment vehicle that holds a diversified basket of assets — such as stocks, bonds, or commodities — and trades on a stock exchange like a regular share. ETFs allow investors to gain broad market exposure, often at a lower cost and with greater flexibility than mutual funds. They are popular for their diversification, transparency, and ease of access for both beginners and seasoned investors.
Let’s have a conversation. Your future wealth might just thank you for acting today.
You can now book a 30 minute zoom meeting with me (at your convenience) by clicking here.
By Michael Doyle
This article is published on: 20th May 2025

I wrote an article back in 2021 which you can read here. I just wanted to offer a reminder of the 10 most important reasons why you should consider having an Assurance Vie whilst living in France:
You can now book a 30 minute zoom meeting with me (at your convenience) by clicking here.
By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 8th May 2025

Happy (Almost) Summer, everyone!
So far this year, the weather has been very unusual, to say the least. Hopefully, things will start to feel a bit more normal soon – which brings me nicely to the financial world, which has been anything but normal! Sometimes it feels like many of us are just pawns in the game that very powerful people play.
In my world, however, many of these ‘games’ are understandable from a financial perspective, and we don’t panic. Instead, we factor in all scenarios and focus on the medium- to long-term goals for our clients.
This month, I’ve put myself in my readers’ shoes and asked:
Whether you’re new to Spain (generally considered to be less than three years) or well-established, it’s important to stay financially organised and understand what actions you need to take.
Living abroad as an expatriate requires thoughtful financial planning to navigate both Spanish and international financial systems. Here are the key areas to consider:
1. Understand Tax Residency and Obligations
In Spain, spending over 183 days within a calendar year establishes you as a tax resident, meaning your worldwide income and assets may be subject to Spanish taxation. It’s crucial to understand the rules around tax residency to avoid unexpected liabilities.
2. Strategise Property Sales and Investments
If you own property in your home country, consider carefully when to sell. Selling property in the same tax year you become a Spanish resident can lead to significant capital gains taxes. Planning the sale before relocating may help mitigate this issue.
3. Establish a Comprehensive Estate Plan
Creating a Will that covers both your home country and Spain is essential to ensure your assets are distributed according to your wishes. It’s wise to consult with advisers experienced in cross-border estate planning to navigate the complexities.
4. Optimise Currency Management
Managing currency exchange efficiently can help minimise losses due to fluctuating exchange rates. Consider using multi-currency accounts or international banking services to provide greater flexibility and cost savings.
5. Savings, Investments & Pension Planning
Ensure these are structured to reduce future tax liabilities—whether that’s for withdrawals, passing assets to your spouse or children, or aligning with your investment expectations (e.g., risk/reward balance). Most importantly, work with someone you trust to help manage these assets.
6. Consult with Experts
Whatever your budget, make sure you work with a recommended lawyer, tax adviser, accountant, and financial adviser. In Spain, you are considered guilty until proven innocent, and it can take years to resolve legal issues—during which your bank accounts or assets may be frozen. Many expats are unaware of this, especially if they come from countries where the opposite presumption applies.
7. Use Your Life Experience
When choosing the right advisers, trust your gut—or your “spider senses,” as I like to call them. You’ve built up intuition through life experience, and more often than not, it’s spot on.
Engaging with financial advisers who specialise in expatriate services can provide tailored guidance on investment strategy, tax planning, and navigating financial matters in both Spain and your home country.
By proactively addressing these areas, you can establish a solid financial foundation for your life in Spain – ensuring both compliance with local regulations and alignment with your long-term goals.
I’m here to help you get organised and take those financial worries away. If you’d like to discuss any of the topics above in more detail, or would like an initial consultation to explore your personal situation, you can do so here.
Click here to read independent reviews on Chris and his advice.
By Tom Worthington
This article is published on: 5th May 2025

How It’s Impacting Investors and What’s Driving It
In today’s economic rollercoaster, market volatility has become a feature, not a bug. Thanks to inflation, interest rates, and politicians who change their stance more often than they change their ties, investors are left riding waves of uncertainty
Market volatility refers to how wildly asset prices swing around. It’s measured with stats like standard deviation or the VIX—aka the “fear index.” When VIX is high, it means traders are about as calm as a cat in a bathtub.
Think of volatility like a political debate: a lot of shouting, some overreactions, and nobody quite sure what the outcome will be—but everyone’s got an opinion.
When markets get shaky, investors run for the hills—or more precisely, into gold, bonds, or the financial equivalent of curling up under a blanket and binge-watching Netflix: cash. It’s not that they don’t want to invest; it’s just hard to focus on stocks when the economy’s behaving like a budget committee after three espressos.
High volatility often leads to panic selling and FOMO buying—essentially the investment version of speed-dating your portfolio. One bad news headline and people dump their assets faster than a politician deletes tweets after a scandal.
With public markets swinging like a metronome at a concert, investors are looking elsewhere: real estate, private equity, and alternatives that don’t fluctuate every time a central banker clears their throat.
Alternative strategies are basically the Switzerland of investing—neutral, quiet, and generally unaffected by the chaos going on next door.
When markets are turbulent, people freeze. Buying a house. Starting a business. Investing in that avocado farm you saw on Instagram?! Better wait until the economy isn’t throwing daily tantrums like it’s on a sugar high.

Geopolitical Tensions
Let’s face it—if the markets had a relationship status, it would be “It’s complicated.” Global tensions (Ukraine, Middle East, China-US trade) have created an environment where investors are just one diplomatic gaffe away from selling everything and moving to the woods.
And with international summits resembling more of a group therapy session than a solutions meeting, it’s no wonder markets are twitchy.
Inflation and Central Bank Policy
Central banks are trying to tame inflation with interest rate hikes—kind of like trying to put out a grease fire by hitting it with a calculator. Every time Jerome Powell or Christine Lagarde so much as raise an eyebrow, markets react like they just heard tax hikes are back on the menu.
Recession Fears
Recessions, Soft landings, Hard landings… No landing? At this point, the economy is basically being piloted by someone reading the instruction manual upside down. With mixed signals and conflicting forecasts, markets are responding like passengers on a turbulent flight—fastening their seatbelts and ordering strong drinks.
Tech and Social Media Hype
Social media has turned investing into part-time entertainment. Between Reddit-fueled pump-and-dumps and influencers recommending crypto in between smoothie recipes, market swings have become more meme than metric. Add algorithmic trading and you’ve got a digital casino with fewer rules and more drama than the House of Commons.
Earnings Uncertainty
Earnings season now feels like a bad date—lots of build-up, dramatic reveals, and someone always ends up disappointed. With rising costs and unpredictable demand, analysts are doing more guesswork than polling firms during a leadership race.

Here’s what smart investors are doing—besides stress-eating during market dips:
Volatility might be nerve-wracking, but it’s not the enemy. It’s a changing a nappy—messy, emotional, and always changing—but ultimately navigable if you stay calm, stay smart, and remember that every cycle, no matter how wild, eventually turns.
So hold onto your investments, keep a sense of humour, and remember: if in doubt talk to your adviser.
By Katriona Murray-Platon
This article is published on: 4th May 2025

May is when France comes out to play because the weather is warmer and the days are getting sunnier. However it is also the month when, if you haven’t already begun your tax declaration, you need to at least make a start on it over the next few weeks. The first deadline for filing the tax return is the 20th May for the paper returns which you will need to complete if this is the first year doing a tax return and you don’t have a tax number or login details to do it online.
The other deadlines for submitting both your income tax return and where applicable, your Wealth Tax return, are as follows:
| DEPARTMENT | DEADLINE |
| 0 to 19 | Thursday 22nd May 2025 at 11.59pm |
| 20 to 54 (including 2A and 2B) | Wednesday 28th May 2025 at 11.59pm |
| 55 to 974/976 | Thursday 5th June at 11.59pm |
| Non residents | Thursday 22nd May 2025 at 11.59pm |
If you do not at least attempt to get some sort of declaration submitted by these deadlines a 10% penalty will apply to the amount of taxed owed. Luckily, Spectrum has a free tax guide which you can find HERE. If you have any questions on this guide, please do get in touch.
I know that it may seem daunting and believe me, even though I was a tax adviser and used to do hundreds of declarations for my clients, I still find doing my own quite a challenge! So to help you, here are my ten top tips:

Property declaration – do you remember last year when you had do declare your properties as a separate declaration? This year you only have to declare whether there have been any changes in 2024. I noted on the online tax form that when you get to the signature page, you must tick a box saying there are no changes otherwise it will not let you sign off and send the tax return.
One of the welcome changes with the 2025 tax declaration is that couples will not be automatically taxed at the same rate but at their individual rates. This is particularly important for those paying tax at source on their pensions and salaries.
Until recently, couples were taxed at the same rate unless they opted for their individual rate which most people didn’t. The result of this was that, because women generally receive less than men when it comes to salaries and pensions, the woman was paying a disproportionate rate of tax. As from 1st September this will change and couples will automatically be taxed at their individual rate unless they opt to pay the same tax rate.
Unfortunately it is too late to contact tax advisers, tax lawyers or anyone else offering help with tax returns as they will be very busy completing the tax returns they already have, so don’t be surprised if they are not returning your calls or emails. However, with a bit of patience and perseverance it is possible to do your own tax return. If you have any questions please do get in touch and I will help as much as I can.
By Gareth Horsfall
This article is published on: 2nd May 2025

Understanding your taxes and timing of tax payment in Italy
It’s that time of the year again folks!
am always given warning that tax time is approaching because a number of clients start to ask for valuations of accounts, interpretation of some documents and also help with organising and sharing some documents with commercialisti.
INCOME TAX RATES FOR 2025 (IRPEF)
In a move to simplify the tax regime in Italy the tax bands have now moved from 4 to 3 in 2024.
| On the first € 28000 | 23% |
| € 28001 to € 50000 | 35% |
| € 50000+ | 43% |
Most of my clients are in, or planning for, retirement to some degree and so understanding how your pension will be taxed as a resident in Italy is of paramount importance.
PRIVATE PENSIONS AND OCCUPATIONAL PENSIONS (Income tax rates – IRPEF)
Private pension provider income: 401K / IRA’s etc / Occupational pensions / Personal pension income / State pension or social security.
All these types of pension incomes fall into the income tax rates ( IRPEF), they are added together and the rates applied to the progressive bands of income.
(tax in country of origin unless Italian citizen!)
The definition according to the Italy / UK / USA double taxation convention 1988 is, paid from:
” a political or an administrative subdivision or a local authority”
The pension awarded is generally taxable only in the state in which it originates and tax is generally deducted at source in that country of origin, unless your are an Italian citizen and then it becomes taxable in Italy as well.
(Check the double taxation treaty from the country in which the pension payments originate)
(This income is not taken into account when calculating the tax on your other income sources in Italy, e.g. rental income, and it is not declared on your tax declaration in Italy)

The NO TAX AREA applies to anyone receiving a pension, whilst resident in Italy (“pensioner” is defined as someone who is receiving official state benefits i.e., social security or state pension).
No distinction is made between pensions being paid from abroad or within Italy!
The NO TAX AREA is €8500 per annum.
It is important to understand that this is NOT an allowance but a tax credit system.
If your total income (reddito complessivo) is €8500 or less then all the tax payable on your pension will be provided as a tax credit.
HOWEVER, the more your total income, from all sources, increases over €8500, the more of the tax credit you lose.
If your total income is €50000 or above you would not receive any tax credit.
A very simple to understand and acceptable €34.20 per annum is applied to each conto corrente e libretto di risparmio: current account or deposit account. This would typically include fixed deposits, short terms cash deposits, CD’s etc. The charge is the equivalent of the ‘imposta da bollo’ which is applied to all Italian deposit accounts each year.
(Money market accounts, premium Bonds in the UK and other deposit based instruments will not generally fall in this category and would be subject to wealth tax – see below)
Interest income is taxed at 26%.
A flat tax rate of 26% is payable on interest and income payments from capital and realised capital gains are also taxed at the same rate of 26%.
(Interest from Italian government bonds and government bonds from ‘white list’ countries are still taxed at 12.5% rather than 26%, as detailed above. This is another quirk of Italian tax law as this means that you pay less tax as a holder of government bonds in Pakistan or Kazakhstan, than a holder of corporate bonds from Italian giants ENI or FIAT).
If you are invested in NON-EU harmonised collective investment vehicles i.e. funds which are listed in a place outside the EU, then the gains and income from these assets are NOT taxed at the flat 26% rate in Italy, but would be added to the rest of your income for the year and taxed at your highest marginal rate of income tax! Funds or ETF’s, for example, which re listed in the UK with a GB ISIN code or in the US with an equivalent US number, would fall into this category.
This is particularly important for UK and USA domiciled assets. If you have a brokerage account with a group such as Fidelity or Vanguard or one of the many other asset management firms, or you invest through a platform such as Hargreaves Lansdown in the UK/USA, then depending on which assets you invest in could mean you are pushing yourself into a higher tax bracket on taxable gains and income for the year. Your portfolio may need restructuring for life in Italy!
Any financial assets other than property attract an annual wealth tax of 0.2% on the value of the asset as at the 31st December each year.
Here are examples of a few:
GENERAL INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS, ISAS, BROKERAGE ACCOUNTS, PLATFORMS, DISCRETIONARY MANAGED PORTFOLIO, DIRECT INVESTMENT IN FUNDS, STOCKS AND SHARES, COMMODITIES, ART WORK, CLASSIC CARS, ETC.
If the assets are located in one of tax regimes around the world which are considered fiscally privileged by the Italian authorities, then the rate of tax is 0.4% pa. The list can be found at the end of this article HERE
Overseas net property income (after allowable expenses in the country in which is located) is added to your other income for the year and taxed at your highest progressive rate of income tax.
For properties based in the EU, the value on which this tax is based is the Italian cadastral equivalent. You will find that the market value will, in most cases, to be significantly more than the cadastral equivalent value. For a list of the different tax values across Europe see the table below.

For properties located outside the EU (inc the UK/USA/Canada/Australia/NZ etc) the value for tax purposes is defined as the acquisition value (purchase /inherited/acquired) where this can be evidenced, otherwise it is the current market value of the property.
Disposal of properties both abroad and in Italy (exc prima casa) are not deemed speculative if you have owned the property for more than 5 full tax years and therefore are not capital gains tax liable on the disposal, in Italy.
NOTE: If you gain residency in Italy then by default your previous ‘first home’ or ‘family home’ for the purposes of the Italian tax authorities is now classified as an investment property. By definition, if you have a home in Italy and a property in another country, even if you consider this property your family home, it can no longer be considered your ‘Prima Casa’ for Italian tax purposes.
If you have any questions about any of these taxes and how they might apply to you and your individual financial situation, or if you think that you might be paying more than need to, then do get in touch and I will be happy to see if I can help you with your plans.
I can be contacted on email: gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or on cell: +39 333 6492356
By Jett Parker-Holland
This article is published on: 22nd April 2025

Most people try to do the right thing. They work hard, save diligently, contribute to their pensions, and even invest in property to secure a comfortable retirement and leave something behind for their loved ones. It’s the responsible thing to do, but recent changes to the UK tax system have turned that logic on its head, especially for British expats living abroad or planning to retire in Spain.
As of April 2025, a new inheritance tax test will be introduced, replacing the ambiguous concept of domicile with a more definitive measure: residency. If you are living—or planning to live—in Spain for the long term, this change affects you directly. Under the new rules, if you have lived outside the UK for at least 10 of the last 20 years, you’ll be classified as a non-UK Long-Term Resident. This is important because it means your overseas assets will no longer be subject to UK Inheritance Tax (IHT); however, UK-based assets such as pensions, property, and bank accounts will still be taxed at 40%.
For many clients, much of their estate remains tied up in the UK. This includes UK property, bank accounts, and—most notably—UK pensions. Although yields on UK assets like rental property or fixed-term bank deposits can appear attractive, the long-term benefit may be diminished if 40% of the value is lost to IHT on death. Because of this, those planning to live in Spain for the long term may want to consider moving certain assets out of the UK tax system. It’s an area where careful financial planning can make a real difference.
The same applies to pensions. Under the old regime, UK pensions were exempt from IHT. Now, pensions are included as part of your estate. If you pass away after age 75, your beneficiaries could face a 40% IHT charge, and potentially up to another 45% in income tax when they take money out of the pension. It’s a harsh reality and fundamentally changes how we should value UK pensions. If your beneficiaries can’t access the full pot, it’s simply not as valuable as it once was. Under these conditions, a £400,000 pension could lose £160,000 to IHT alone.
At Spectrum, we specialise in cross-border financial planning. We can help you review your UK assets and explore options to reduce your exposure to unnecessary taxes, ensuring more of your hard-earned wealth stays with your family, not the taxman.
If you’re living in Spain, or planning to, and you’re unsure how these changes affect you, this may be a good time to review your plans. A short conversation could help secure your legacy.
If you would like to discuss your situation in more detail and explore your options, please feel free to contact me directly for a no-obligation consultation.
By Tom Worthington
This article is published on: 18th April 2025

For those working aboard superyachts, managing finances across multiple countries is part of the job. Offshore banking is a common topic in the industry, but what does it actually mean? More importantly, how can superyacht crew members ensure they use offshore accounts legally and effectively?
What is an Offshore Account?
An offshore account is a bank account held outside the account holder’s country of residence. These accounts are often established in jurisdictions known for financial privacy, currency flexibility, and, in some cases, tax efficiency. Common offshore banking hubs include Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Singapore, and Luxembourg.
Key Features of Offshore Accounts
• Multi-Currency Access – Useful for those paid in different currencies or working in international waters.
• Privacy & Confidentiality – Some jurisdictions have strict banking secrecy laws.
• Tax Efficiency – Depending on residency status, offshore accounts may offer tax advantages.
• Asset Protection – Offshore banking can safeguard funds from political instability or legal claims.
Are Offshore Accounts Legal?
Yes. Offshore banking is entirely legal, provided account holders comply with tax reporting obligations in their country of residence. Many governments enforce strict regulations requiring individuals to disclose offshore accounts.
Key compliance measures include:
• Common Reporting Standard (CRS) – Over 120 countries automatically share offshore account data with tax authorities.
• Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) – A U.S. law requiring Americans to report foreign financial accounts.
Failure to disclose offshore accounts can result in heavy fines, tax penalties, or even legal action. However, when used correctly, offshore accounts serve legitimate purposes such as international transactions, estate planning, and investment diversification.
How Offshore Banking is Enforced
The days of absolute banking secrecy are over. Since the introduction of CRS in 2018, tax authorities worldwide have cracked down on undisclosed offshore assets. Here are a few key examples:
Switzerland’s Secrecy Crumbles
• Over 3.1 million accounts worth €1.3 trillion were reported in the first year of CRS.
• Countries like France, Germany, and Italy used this data to launch tax audits on individuals with undeclared Swiss accounts.
• Many account holders voluntarily disclosed assets to avoid penalties.
Spain’s Offshore Crackdown
• Over 11,000 undisclosed offshore accounts were uncovered from 2020-2023.
• Tax authorities recovered millions in unpaid taxes and issued heavy fines.
• High-profile cases, including football stars like Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, highlighted the risks of offshore tax evasion.
UK’s HMRC Recovers £570 Million
• The UK’s tax authority identified over 150,000 residents with hidden offshore accounts.
• £570 million was recovered in unpaid taxes.
• Stricter penalties were introduced for failure to declare offshore wealth.

What This Means for Superyacht Crew
Superyacht crew frequently work across jurisdictions, earning salaries in different currencies and often living outside their home country.
This can make offshore banking an attractive option, but it’s crucial to remain compliant with tax laws.
Key Considerations:
• Know Your Tax Residency – Your tax obligations depend on where you are officially resident, not just where you work.
• Report Your Offshore Accounts – Avoid penalties by declaring foreign accounts where required.
• Seek Professional Advice – Offshore banking and tax laws are complex. Consulting a financial adviser who understands the yachting industry can help navigate the rules effectively.
Final Thoughts
Offshore banking is a useful financial tool when used correctly. However, with increasing transparency and global information-sharing agreements like CRS, hiding offshore assets is no longer an option.
Superyacht crew should approach offshore banking with full awareness of their legal responsibilities to ensure financial security without unnecessary risks.
To make sure you are doing it properly, feel free to contact Tom
By Gareth Horsfall
This article is published on: 10th April 2025

Well, as you might have expected I have decided to write to you at this particularly fragile moment in world politics, and which has now reverberated around world investment markets. As of Friday last week a sell off started in the equity markets which effectively created a bear market situation around the world for fears of global recession based on the Trump tariffs. (as of today we have seena slight rebound, but more volatility is likely)

So moving away from my random hypotheses, let’s dwell on markets and the horrible news that our portfolios have fallen in value once again but, before I do, if you have been an investor for years, I would ask you to reflect on just the last 5 years for a moment.
What did you think when a global pandemic hit? Businesses were shut, schools too, everyone was told to stay at home and not interact with each other without a mask on and to stay 6 metres away from others? The markets tanked as a result.
What was your reaction? Maybe we were too distracted by the pandemic to really pay much attention – and rightly so! but what about when Russian invaded Ukraine and it sent global markets into a panic and a global inflation spike, sending us from years of disinflation and near zero interest rates, to an overnight significant rise in prices which to date continues. Did you panic sell off your portfolio?
Probably the answer is no and you did the right thing because markets rebounded (albeit more slowly after the Russia Ukraine war) but they did and the same happened after 2008 Financial Crisis and 2010 Euro crisis: hanging on and riding through the panic was the best thing to do… and it is now!
You might argue ‘It’s different this time’ ; the whole world is changing and markets will never recover. If you think this then I would coach you to read the book, ‘It’s different this time -Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’ by Reinhart and Rogoff. Largely financial markets are governed by human behaviour and that has not changed since time began, or at least over the last 8 centuries according to the data they present.
Please also bear in mind that success for every US President is judged on the US stock market. Most, if not all Americans, have significant assets invested in the US stock market and so it is a sign of health of the US economy and more importantly a measure of the US Presidents success at home ( interestingly, Pres. Trump’s favourability ratings have increased from 48% at election time to 53% now. clearly, he is increasingly approved of in the USA).
After reading so much on this topic and trying to syphon through the almost hourly noise, my view is that he is front loading all the bad news now to get it out of the way. He knows that come the mid-terms in 2026 he needs to have made significant inroads into making good on his promises to the American people and for that reason he is getting the worst out of the way now, whilst he can, after which a flurry of good news will likely follow.

So, moving away from the media hype and screaming economists for a moment, let’s take a look at what Pres. Trump is really trying to achieve.
Pres. Trump watches consumer confidence closer than anything and in order to keep it high he has to achieve 3 goals:
1. Get oil prices lower
Gas at the pump is the beating heart of the America middle class and the Trump administration will go to any lengths to reduce the price of oil at the pumps. (When I was in New York in February the gas at the pump, I calculated, cost €1 a litre!!!!!!! – compare that to the the €1.59 a litre, this morning, that I just paid for diesel. Petrol was €0.20 higher still). So, if this administration can reduce gas prices further that could stimulate a mini economic boom in the US.
Bear in mind that the US is already the worlds largest producer of oil at 40% higher than its nearest competitor ( Saudi Arabia). Pres. Trump has stated clearly that he wants to aim for 100% energy independence and I think they will not just aim for it but do it at any cost.
(It should be noted that I paid €1.59 a litre for diesel this morning. 1 week ago it was €1.67. – Is his strategy working?)
2. Mortgages are the second lever to pull
If he wants the American public to gain confidence in his policies then he needs to give them breathing room economically (i.e. more money in their pockets) and he can then continue to go about reshaping the US economy . (At time of writing, with pressure building on a possible recession, pressure is equally being heaved on Jerome Powell – head of the Federal Reserve, to reduce interest rates). Was the market correction manufactured to some degree, or at least expected, to pressure the Fed to reduce interest rates?
This administration has also openly stated that they will also look to deregulate the banking industry, to release them from overly administrative and bureaucratic procedures and to allow them to get back to banking. This will also assist in bringing interest rates down. (This point I can fully agree with :banking regulation, anti money laundering legislation, source of wealth and origin of wealth obligatory requirements have become, quite frankly , out of control and any simplification in this regard, in my opinion, is warranted).
3. Lastly – the Trump administration will focus on food price inflation
Remember to watch out for the first 100 days of the Pres. Trump term which is often linked to his early successes; the 100th day lands on April the 29th!
So, there you have it, a few thoughts of my own on the Trump administration and why it might not be as bad as it seems.
So, let me turn to the technical for a moment: some data about market volatility.
This market volatility feels tumultuous but, of course, we’ve been here before. The table below reveals that after severe drawdowns, the market has often recovered the full decline and finished the year strongly positive.

Years to Note:
On each occasion, the best course of action would have been to avoid the noise and stay invested.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain
Whatever happens in the market we have bigger things to worry about!

Besides, when markets sell off, why on earth would you not buy into them at these prices? They are at bargain basement prices and as the saying goes ‘fill your boots!’ I had a measly amount of cash available to invest and have taken advantage of these prices.
Let me tell you a couple of my own investment tales:
My first tale which I have written about before was during the financial crisis of 2008 ( which by the way was a many times worse than what we are going through today) and my wife had just sold a house in the UK and we had some cash to invest. I knew I had to invest but I was very nervous because, working at the coal face of what was happening at that time, I knew that things were very serious. However, I also knew the theory of markets and that the best time to buy was in the height of the chaos. I went for it and the next 3 months were tragic and I lost 20% in value on the portfolio. (I never told me wife!) 6 months later the portfolio was up 45% ! It should be noted that I am an adventurous investor profile and so was invested 100% in equity ; it was a wild ride I can tell you but I knew the logic and I just had to be patient. Later we needed that money for something else and had to sell a sizeable portion of it, but it did its job.
My other tale is that at the start of my career as a financial planner I thought I was smarter than the market itself and that I could time my way in. I waited and waited and…. waited for the right entry point, waiting for a decent correction to buy in at the price I deemed to be right. I arrogantly waited 6 years before buying in! (What an idiot!) I can’t even bring myself to calculate the gains that I missed in those 6 years even with the correction that happened.
Lesson: It’s time in the markets, not timing the markets, that counts…
As I said to someone recently “I have made all the mistakes in the books, so you don’t have to!”

Finally, let’s talk about inflation. Here I take the words of Charles D Ellis who wrote the book ‘Winning the Losers Game – Timeless strategies for successful investing’.
“For individual investors, inflation has usually been the major problem – not the attention getting daily or cyclical changes in security prices that most investors fret about. The corrosive power of inflation is truly daunting. At 5% inflation the purchasing power of your money is cut in half in less than 15 years and cut in half again in the next 15. At 7% your purchasing power drops to 25 % of its present level in just 21 years- the elapsed time between early retirement at age 61 and age 82, an increasingly normal life expectancy“.
Again, it might be useful to provide some perspective here because the all so surreptitious march of inflation is often upon us when we notice it, by which time it is far too late to do anything about it.
1. The price of my journey to Rome on the autostrada from Orte has increased from €4.50 in 2024 to €4.80 in 2025. That’s a 6.6% increase. I track this price and it has never, in my 20 years in Italy, increased at inflation levels or under. Always above!
2. The water machine in central Amelia, where I go to fill our drinking water bottles was 5 cents for a litre and half, they have just changed the machine and it’s now 5 cents a litre. That’s a 33.3% increase. (It’s hardly breaking the bank but a great example)
3. The news on RAI announced a few nights ago that the price of Colomba Easter cake is up 31% year on year and Easter eggs up 26%.
4. I took my son to KFC 2 weeks ago, reluctantly, and asked for the 4 large pieces of chicken. The last time I went to KFC was about 15 years ago and I remember these 4 huge pieces of chicken. Now, the 4 pieces resembled the size of 4 larger nuggets. Shrink inflation in practice so if you can’t increase your prices, reduce the amount of product. It has the same effect !
OK, I hear you say ‘These are not everyday items’ but they do reflect the general trend of the stealthy march of inflation.
Be under no illusion that this is your main financial enemy and investing is your only tool to protect yourself from it!
Investing requires patience and courage…or a financial adviser who you can ring and let off some steam. Make sure you can tap into any of these things if you get concerned about world events and market volatility!
So, on this happy point let me leave you with this information about the life ahead of you.

More people needing to finance live beyond 90th birthday
If you would like to let off some steam with me or discuss any of what is going on in the world, tax or financial planning related issues in Italy then please don’t hesitate to contact me on: gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or call / message on +39 3336492356
Always happy to help where I can!