The new year is a great time for setting goals and making resolutions. I read that, according to a recent survey, saving money was the most popular resolution (after losing weight)!

Saving money is a very important habit to have throughout your life. The great thing is that it is never too late or early to start saving and you don’t need to put aside a lot. Just like it is not a good idea to do fad diets but more to make manageable improvements to your lifestyle, it is better not to make too ambitious savings plans but to put aside small regular amounts that build up over time.

The French standard savings accounts are currently earning 3% which will remain as such until the beginning of 2025. You are allowed to put €22,950 of capital into a Livret A and €12,000 into a LDDS. Once you have reached these limits you cannot put any more into it but the interest compounded over the years can be added to these amounts. The LEP is the highest remunerated savings account, currently at 6%, however if you are eligible for this account you should take advantage of this rate as soon as you can as it may drop to 4.2% on 1st February. If you are eligible you can have 2 LEP accounts per household and can put up to €10,000 of capital into it. To be eligible one person alone must not have earned more than €21,393 in 2022 as declared in 2023. Your bank will not automatically suggest that you open this account so it is for you to check whether you are eligible and request to open a LEP. There are other savings accounts and term accounts that the banks may offer but the rates on these are around 3% and unlike the above mentioned accounts, they will be subject to tax and social charges.

Whilst we don’t know how the market will react to various events and political developments in 2024, fixed income assets could continue to provide good earnings this year. Our investment providers have seen good steady returns in 2023 in their more cautious funds. Whilst savings and fixed interest assets are good to have, it is also important to have some equity based investments. According to a Credit Suisse study published in February 2023, the actual annualised return (after inflation) on the savings accounts in France was -0.8% per year between 1923 and 2022, compared with +6.1% from shares.

On the 15th January, if you have had home help expenses (cleaner, gardener etc) you will get 60% of this tax credit paid to you. The remainder will be taken off your taxes in September.

I will be attending our annual conference in Budapest from 22nd to 26th of January and will have lots of information to pass onto you when I hear the presentations from our product providers. Also coming in my February Ezine will be the news from the adopted French Finance law for 2024.

It is never too late or too early to financial planning so do get in touch and recommend your friends to get in touch with me for a free financial consultation.

A tongue in cheek look at the world
three decades from now

The year is 2054. The Trump family presidency is about to enter its fourth decade of ruling power, with Ivanka in charge ever since her father abolished the 22nd amendment of the US constitution that limits anyone to two terms.

Today, the government has a 99% approval rating, according to the state-sponsored broadcaster Fox News, and the Trump family continue to win each election in a landslide, having introduced new rules to make the voting system fair and honest following the collapse of the Biden regime.

However, America is not the technological superpower it once was, having stubbornly doubled down on the use of oil, coal and gas whilst the rest of the modern world switched to clean, abundant renewable energy and electric cars. The technology-hating president Donald Trump eventually decided that the Big Tech billionaires such as Bezos, Zuckerberg and Musk were getting too big for their boots and nationalised their companies, declaring that it was his duty to the people to use his talent for business to run them himself. This move ushered in a new kind of capitalism as their huge profits were directed to fund the collapsing social security system, the construction of border walls sealing off America from Canada and Mexico, and enabling the Trump White House to install gold-plated toilets in every room, making it the envy of African dictators and footballers wives.

The US national debt has climbed to $340 trillion, a tenfold increase since The Donald regained power in 2024, but the Fed has kept interest rates at zero for most of the past three decades. The US Treasury has been able to fund the debt by creating a series of $1 trillion digital coins and by selling NFT trading cards. As a result, the ‘Trump’, the new name for the US Dollar, is one of the weakest currencies in the world – you currently get 250 Trumps to the Euro. The Trump administration has managed to stave off financial collapse by regularly threatening to ‘renegotiate’ America’s sovereign debt with its creditors, a scenario that everyone wants to avoid.

Whilst America has begun to resemble a strange version of Cuba or North Korea, Europe has enjoyed a surprising renaissance, thanks to its early adoption of artificial intelligence as a key element of government. For once, the hype turned out to be real (albeit 15 years after the first AI stock market bubble had popped) and AI advanced rapidly as it was entrusted to take over from politicians. A new law in 2035 stating that anyone who expressed a desire to go into politics would immediately be banned from going into politics meant that a new way to govern had to be found. By harnessing AI for the common good, rather than allowing it to be controlled by a few large companies or rich individuals, Europe has been able to rebuild its infrastructure, increase the leisure time of its working population with the introduction of the 3-day week and overtake the US and Asia in the development of new virtual reality worlds where most retired people now spend their final years – it has become possible to see the world, live out your dreams and fulfil your fantasies, all without leaving the comfort of your armchair.

Norway has become the most admired nation in the world, an example of good resource management and social equality. It’s oil fields were eventually depleted but, unlike other oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia, Norway had invested its wealth for future generations into thousands of companies around the world. As the only country to have virtually no debt, Norway’s Krone has since taken the place of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The Krone has gold-like limited supply, is backed by real wealth and an economy powered by an abundance of clean thermal and hydro electricity. In 2031, Norway became the first country in the world to have an all-electric transport system, having waved goodbye to petrol engines long before anyone else. It’s cooler climate has also made it one of the world’s most popular holiday destinations now that parts of the Mediterranean region have become too hot to support life outdoors during the summer months.

Technological advances in the early 2040’s mean that global poverty, water shortages and hunger around the world may soon become a thing of the past. The spread of AI-powered nanobots throughout industry and agriculture has increased productivity by thousands of degrees of efficiency. No longer is output restricted by physical human strength, labour laws, poor education, the need for holidays or sick leave. Tiny machines that are able to reproduce as the work requires are now populating factories and fields in vast numbers, freeing humans from the slavery of the daily struggle to feed themselves or earn a living. This new workforce has massively increased our efficiency when using finite natural resources, it has created a recycling movement that ensures nothing is wasted and has generated an abundance of goods and services.

Education is now available to anyone who is connected to the world wide web, which these days is everyone. Society’s best teachers no longer stand in a lecture hall in Cambridge or Harvard, educating only a few privileged students. Today, they are treated like rock stars as they broadcast their lessons around the world to millions of people at a time, giving students everywhere the chance to be taught by the best in their field. However, despite a leap in global education levels, AI has not been able to come up with a way to genetically eliminate stupidity, even if it is now recognised as a medical condition for insurance purposes.

War has largely been eliminated in 2054. The spread of the internet to every part of the globe helped people of all nations and religions to bond and empathise with each other. For the first time in history, people were able to see and really understand how other people lived. They might not all agree with each other but the urge to kill has been reduced dramatically (except in America) and the need to occupy more territory has been negated by expansion into new digital universes and, soon, into space. The end of corruption in politics also meant that the world’s largest arms companies suddenly found themselves facing a demand shortage as government budgets were directed elsewhere, so they naturally directed their skills towards space exploration.

War isn’t the only thing that has been eliminated – so has smoking, alcohol, red meat, close human contact (unless you have a license), telling off children, boxing, speeding, fast food and swearing. The proliferation of cameras everywhere ensures the population remains polite and well behaved, much like Japan. Only the Clarksonites remain in defiance, an underground movement dedicated to preserving what they describe as the lost arts of fun, debauchery and common sense.

However, despite the relative sanitisation of humanity, in the year 2054 the future is looking bright. The stock market is up, house prices are up and most people around the world have food on the table and more tv programmes than they can ever watch. The depression years of the late 2020s, a hangover from the locked-down COVID era, have given way to a time of greater optimism, more peaceful co-existence and rising prosperity. Climate change has been arrested thanks to clean-tech, space travel is opening up new frontiers in human exploration and the virtual reality worlds are enabling new lives in the digital universe. It may not be perfect, but it is a lot better than anything the science fiction writers of the late 20^th century were predicting.

Here we are already at the end of the year. 2023 has been a year of highs and lows, not for me personally or professionally, but in the markets. If you look at any of the main markets or indexes you can see that 2023 has been a challenging year for investors. Of course there are still several weeks left in December so it is too early to say how the year will end.

At the end of November the UK chancellor presented the autumn statement. Whilst much of this does not affect those of us in France, Mr Hunt did confirm that the triple lock would be maintained and the pension payment would increase by 8.5% in April 2024. If you are entitled to the new State pension you will get £221.20 a week from April. Those pensioners who qualified for their pensions before April 2016 will also see an increase from £156.20 currently to £169.50 per week. Unlike in the UK the tax bands in France have been increased for 2024 so this means that, subject to the exchange rate, pensioners in France will get more income but pay less taxes next year.

The Bank of England decided in November that it would not increase interest rates and would maintain it at 5.25%. Whilst this is unlikely to change in the medium term, with inflation falling to 4.7% in October, it has been no surprise to me to read in the UK press that many banks are dropping the high interest rate accounts that have been on offer over this past year.

Please remember that most companies and business owners have to pay CFE by 15th December. As the CFE is a local tax and the other local taxes like the taxe d’habiation and taxe foncière increased this year, it should come as no surprise if you find that your CFE has also increased.

As we head towards the end of the year there may still be some things you might want to consider doing to alleviate your tax burden next year. Tis the season for giving so if you haven’t already been making charitable donations monthly during the year or you want to make one off donations at this time of the year, you can deduct between 66% to 75% of the amount donated, depending on the status of the chosen charity, and up to 20% of your annual taxable income. Also, if you have a PER and are in a position to make a contribution to it before the end of the year, this is also deductible from your taxable income.

There was good news for those invested in the Pru as, at the quarterly review of the Expected Growth Rates on 27th November, there was no changes to the EGRs and no Unit Price Adjustments. This was welcome news since there had been three consecutive downward Unit Price Adjustments in the PruFund Growth Sterling fund in previous quarters.

Looking forward, I always like to remain positive and hopeful however I have learnt that it is also important to manage expectations. One of our product provides reminded me that there will be many countries heading to the polls in 2024 and that this is likely to cause turbulence and volatility in the markets.

The OECD predicts that “In the absence of further large shocks to food and energy prices, projected headline inflation is expected to return to levels consistent with central bank targets in most major economies by the end of 2025.” It further stated that whilst “Global growth is projected to be 2.9% in 2023, and weaken to 2.7% in 2024. As inflation abates further and real incomes strengthen, the world economy is projected to grow by 3% in 2025”. Of course, whilst these are based on careful analysis and good information, they are just predictions and as we have seen things often turn out better than most analysts ever predicted.

No matter what happens my job is to be there for my clients, to advise them on their investments and provide them with the proper information to help them make the right financial decisions so please do get in touch if you would like to arrange a phone call, video call or face to face meeting.

I shall be celebrating Christmas here in France and then New Years in the UK. There are still plenty of dates available for meetings before the end of the year but if I don’t speak to you before then I wish you all a very happy holiday season and all the best for the new year!