I have held off this subject for a while because in the finance industry we have been waiting for some figures to confirm what has to date been expected, but as yet could not be verified: slowing inflation figures.

This has now been demonstrated in 2 countries: The USA and the UK (and it is likely that the EU will follow suit)

On November 1st the Fed announced that inflation had slowed in the States slowing from 3.8% in August to 3.7% in November. This is a good signal that interest rate rises in the USA have had the desired effect on inflation and so they decided to keep policy rates on hold at 5.25-5.5%

The UK also announced more dramatic falls in inflation, from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October. That’s quite the fall, and resulted in the same action from the Bank of England: interest rates will be kept on hold.

Not a lot of time left for savers and higher interest rates
As a result, anyone who is looking to pick up the best interest rates on their cash will more than likely need to act fast now. It is highly likely that we have reached the peak interest rate in the cycle and so the direction will more than likely be down from here. Remember that Central Banks have a 2% inflation target and whilst there is little chance of that happening (in my humble opinion!) for some time to come yet, they will quickly want to reduce interest rates to stimulate the home buying sector, making it cheaper for new borrowers and also to alleviate the pressure on existing borrowers with higher repayments, hence stimulating overall spending and avoiding deep recession.

That doesn’t bode well for savers who have been eyeing the delicious Burrata-esque interest rates on cash in the last year. The banks will very likely be ahead of the trend and start lowering their fixed term offers before the central bank rate falls. In fact we are already seeing that a number of fixed rate offers are being withdrawn.

Therefore, is it time to Invest rather than sitting on cash?
I think this has been the second most asked question of me in 2023.

I imagine that you think that my answer has always been to invest, given that this is the main service that I offer clients. However, you would be wrong! I have, on a number of occasions advised clients to seek out better deposit rates on cash. It all depends on circumstances. In general, anyone needing cash in the short term (1-2 years) would be advised to keep the required amount in cash to cover any bigger one-off expenses and the same would apply whether interest rates are at zero or 5%. However, my advice is, and has always been, that if you have a longer term horizon i.e you intend on living on a return from capital over the next 10 or 20 years, or even longer, then investing is the better option. Why? Because quite simply cash is a terrible way to hold capital long term and trying to time entry into the markets is an impossible task.

But I repeat this mantra often, so let me show you some great slides that I have received from Rathbones Investment managers recently which go a bit deeper into the understanding of why cash is a bad medium to long term option.

IN THE LONG TERM INVESTING IN EQUITIES HAS COMFORTABLY BEATEN CASH

RETURNS FROM CASH HAVE FAILED TO KEEP UP WITH INFLATION FOR LONGER PERIODS

EQUITIES ARE FORECASTED TO RETURN MORE THAN CASH OVER THE NEXT DECADE

In addition, someone I know who is a UK Independent financial advisor (thanks for sending this Chris!) sent me some other useful information which I want to share with you on the same topic.

So, does investing even make sense anymore?
First, it’s worth reminding ourselves that the laws of capitalism haven’t changed:

• Governments must pay higher returns than cash to borrow. Governments NEED to raise money through debt. It’s what keeps pensions paid and the lights on. If cash rates are at 5%, government bonds have to offer people MORE than that to tempt them out of the bank – even more so if they want them to lock it up for 10 years
• Companies must pay more than governments to borrow. Companies NEED to incentivise you to lend to them, rather than to the government … which means paying you more than the government does! If cash is at 5%, and government bonds are at 6% (say)… corporate debt must be higher (otherwise why take the risk?!)
• Equities have to offer the chance of being paid more than corporate bonds. Companies ALSO need to generate money for their shareholders (who are taking even more risk than their bondholders). Because if their shareholders could do better leaving their money in the bank … soon there’d be no shareholders. And the decision maker at a company knows that. Any new project requiring a cash investment will be judged against the bank rate. If a new project doesn’t have the potential to beat what the bank’s offering, why do it?

The bottom line is that cash sets the bar. Everything else then needs to jump over it.

Of course, it’s tempting to believe that today’s investment circumstances are unique. “This time it’s different!”. Inflation is high. Government debt levels have soared. Geopolitical hotspots are flaring up in Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan. Add to that the transformational developments in AI and the increasingly savage impact of climate change. But is it really different this time?

Look at the below chart. Between 1993 and 2007, interest rates averaged 5.35%. Government debt levels were rising sharply*. Geopolitical hotspots were flaring up in Yugoslavia, the Middle East and Russia. The internet was revolutionising society. In the face of all that, surely just staying in cash, at 5.25%, was best?

ABSOLUTELY NOT!

That higher cash bar created better jumpers. The FTSE 100 (with dividends reinvested) returned 8.1% annualised over that period.

The world continued to jump over the bar… and it will do in the next economic cycle too.

Markets are a forward looking mechanism
I will have a brief final word on this matter. I want to tell you a personal story.

In 2008 / 2009 my wife and I had some capital to invest, around €40,000. We had not had a lump sum of this nature to invest in our whole lives. We had mainly saved from income. At the time I had just finished Warren Buffets book ‘The snowball: Warren Buffet and the business of life’. I wanted to learn more from the great investors and understand what decisions they took to help them in their investing decisions so that I could be a better adviser for you, my clients. We just happened to have this capital now, which I knew needed investing for me and my family.

You may remember than 2008 /2009 was the height of the Financial Crisis and the financial markets and general global financial system were teetering on the brink of total collapse. It didn’t appear to be a good time to be investing. However, I knew what I needed to do.

I can only tell you that selecting the funds I wanted to purchase and then actually doing it was one of the hardest things I have ever done with money. It totally went against every grain of common sense in my body, given the state of the financial system at the time. (I was party to just how bad it was through our internal communications from fund managers and financial experts alike) Why invest when the world is in such bad shape? But, I didn’t let my heart rule out and instead went with my head.

What happened over the coming months was that the portfolio I had selected went down 20% in the next month and it left me wondering whether I had done the right thing or not. (and before you ask, I never told my wife about this until about 6 months later!) . But I stuck with the plan and 3 months after that the portfolio had bounced back and was in positive territory again.

Lessons learned

I learned 2 very important lessons from that experience:

1. You can’t time markets. So don’t even try. If you happen to have capital that you need to invest around the time when markets have fallen then it is going to be more or less the best time to get in. The valuations may go lower in the short term but in the medium to long term you are going to get the best valuations.

2.  Markets will bounce back before the economy does.  At the time I had invested,  and the valuations had increased, we were in the worst of that economic period.  The bounce came from some political decisions to stimulate the economy, but those decisions would take years before the results fed through to the general economy.

If you would like to discuss anything about this article with me, then please do get in touch on gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or message/call me on +39 3336492356

It was great to recently do an interview with Michelle Smith from Real Expats Living in Italy Youtube channel.   We talked about my work, life and living in ‘Il bel Paese’.  Great fun.  I wish her all the best with the channel and hope it helps people already living in or thinking about moving to Italy. 

Thinking about making the move to Italy? Wondering if it’s all sunshine, wine, and pizza? From the moment you step foot in Italy, you’ll be captivated by its rich history, breathtaking landscapes, and vibrant culture. But beneath the surface, there are challenges and realities that may surprise you. Michelle, is an expat living in Italy, and provides an unfiltered look at what it’s really like to live, work, and thrive in this beautiful country.

This isn’t your typical travel channel or glossy brochure. It’s a no-holds-barred exploration of the highs and lows of expat life in Italy. Discover the unvarnished truth, helping you make an informed decision about your own Italian adventure.

I am back in the office after Le Tour de Finance dates last week in Abruzzo and Marche…..and I learned something interesting from the people that came along!

It was great to be getting out of the office again and going and touring the country with our financial experts. I have to admit that the organisation of the events is a bit stressful: finding and negotiating with the venue, finding the right people to come and speak and then dealing with the logistics over the 2 days. But, in the end, it is not just good for work, but I really enjoy being able to be to be out and about, visit new parts of Italy and meet new people and speak with old, alike.

These Le Tour de Finance events were all about the ladies!

I had deliberately invited only female speakers to get another perspective on the world of finance this time and although I can’t exactly put my finger on what was different, the atmosphere was different in some way. Exactly what I can’t say, but something for sure. So, I will put that down as a success!

I did mention above that I learned something from the people that came along. There was a difference in the focus of people’s attention this time. Normally it has been primarily focussed on Italian taxation and the financial planning in Italy, but this time the majority of the questions and queries during the talk and after over lunch, were centered around the investment markets and the future outlook for investors. I guess that shouldn’t have taken me by surprise given the state of world geopolitics, but it was interesting to note and helps me to focus in these E-zines and my other articles.

However, this E.zine is not designed to provide you with a long interpretation of what was said on the day. Instead I managed to find the time to interview the speakers and here are the videos, in full.

If you also have questions about financial markets, investing and how world geopolitical events affect your money then you might find the interview with Joy Callender and Lorraine Reddaway from RBC Brewin Dolphin very interesting. We have inserted some slides into the videos which provide visual aids to what we are saying.

First interview with RBC Brewin Dolphin asset managers.

Second interview with Stefania Falcone at Currencies Direct where we have a chat about exchanging currencies and the difference between them and Wise.

And the last video with Judith Ruddock of Studio del Gaizo Picchioni where we talk about the Agenzia delle Entrate, common tax mistakes for residents of Italy and what to watch out for.

I am rushing this E-zine out to you after travelling for the last 2 weeks, because there are some important developments in La Legge di Bilancio 2024 which may affect you.

Not since 2014 and the new tax laws introduced by Mario Monti have I seen such big changes in the tax system in Italy. Georgia Meloni’s government have clearly taken a leaf from that book and have introduced a raft of new tax law changes which have recently been announced in La Legge di Bilancio 2024. (These have not been passed yet, but it is highly likely that they will be voted on before year end!).

THE MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH, FOR MY CLIENTS, IS AN INCREASE ON THE WEALTH TAX ON OVERSEAS PROPERTY!!!

Below I explain a few of the changes and which groups of people they might affect.

“Those who plan do better than those who do not plan, even should they rarely stick to their plan!”

1. Wealth tax on overseas property will increase from 0.76% to 1.06%.pa
On an average overseas property taxable value of GBP300,000 or USD300,000, the tax will rise by 900 a year!

2. Affitti Brevi – cedolare secca – tax to increase from 21% to 26%
If you rent out a property in Italy for short terms rentals (less than 30 days), and you are not registered as a company, then you have the option of applying the ‘cedolare secca’, which is a sort of preferential forfeit rate of tax (expenses non deductible) of 21%. This will rise to 26% from January 2024.

3. Proposed Tax Band changes for 2024

4. Non-EU citizens resident in Italy! will have to pay an annual contribution of €2000 to access the Italian health service.
(The contribution will not have to be paid for foreign students with a permesso di soggiorno or similar)

This is a huge development, because any non-EU citizen resident in Italy (US persons and now Brit’s) who is currently paying for access to the Italian health service is assessed based on a certain level of ‘reddito complessivo’ (total income).

You can access that info from the Minstero della Salute website on the link below:

https://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_2522_listaFile_itemName_0_file.pdf

If you are a non-EU citizen living in Italy, and maybe paying the minimum of €387,34 a year, then this could be a significant rise of nearly €1600 a year!

(Interestingly if you have a high income level and are assessed on the maximum under the current criteria, then €2000 a year would be a quite sizeable discount – assuming the reddito complessivo calculation is no longer valid).

Here are the categories of people who would need to pay.

1. Students or equivalent who are in Italy for a period of less than 3 months.
2. Holders of the permesso di soggiorno for ‘residenza elettiva‘ !!! who don’t have any form of work.
3. Persons of religious institutions.
4. Diplomatic and consular personnel of foreign representations in Italy. (excluding staff with an Italian work contract)
5. Employees of International organisations operating in Italy. (presumably United Nations et al)
6. Foreigners who work for International organisations operating in Italy. (not on Italian contracts)
7. Foreigners who participate in voluntary programmes
8. Parents, over 65 years old, who have or will move to Italy to be with family members, after 5th November 2008.
9. All other excluded categories.

***  Notable is the category of anyone applying for ‘residenza elettiva’.  This will affect alot of UK and US citizens who may currently be applying to become resident in Italy under the residenza elettiva category.*** 

*****Interesting exclusion from the list. *****

One notable category of people missing from the list is Brit’s who were registered in Italy before Brexit and therefore have acquired EU rights as per the EU/UK withdrawal agreement, also retired Brit’s with the right to reciprocal healthcare in Italy under the S1 arrangement. It remains to be seen whether they would be expected to pay or not. (I would think not!) My suspicion is that no one has even thought about this category of individuals and so, like many pieces of Italian legislation, it is first introduced then clarified over time. My thinking is that this one will have to be taken up by the British Embassy and the remaining UK citizen rights lobby groups, for clarification.

The new text relating to the definition of residency and domicile is as follows:

“Il comma 2 dell’articolo 2 del Testo Unico delle Imposte sui redditi, approvato con decreto del Presidente della Repubblica del 22 dicembre 1986, n. 917 è sostituito dal seguente: “2. Ai fini delle imposte sui redditi si considerano residenti le persone che per la maggior parte del periodo d’imposta, considerando anche le frazioni di giorno, hanno il domicilio o la residenza nel territorio dello Stato ovvero che sono ivi presenti. Ai fini dell’applicazione della presente disposizione, per domicilio si intende il luogo in cui si sviluppano, in via principale, le relazioni personali e familiari della persona. Salvo prova contraria, si presumono altresì residenti le persone iscritte per la maggior parte del periodo di imposta nelle anagrafi della popolazione residente.”

Let’s anlayse the important differences below:

1. Change in the definition of domicile:

In Italian law it currently reads as:

“the place of your principal place of work or interests”

The new definition will be connected to your personal status and read as follows:

“the place where the person’s personal and family relationships mainly develop”

This could be significant for anyone who previously may have claimed working abroad as a criteria for not being resident, whilst their main family relationships were still in Italy.

2. Fractions of days.
If you are someone who has to count your days in and out of the country to maintain non-residency or residency alike, then you will likely need to count fractional days in Italy as well. i.e any time spent in the country in any one day will be counted as a full day for residency purposes.

3. Assumed residenza for anyone registered at the anagrafe for the majority of the fiscal period (calendar year)
Again, this is an important development for anyone who is registered as resident at the anagrafe, has a carta d’identità and certificati di residenza, but is claiming fiscal residency in another tax jurisdiction.

It is clear from these changes that the Italian government is tightening up the rules around residenza and closing those loopholes which many people have used to get around ‘residenza fiscale’ whilst retaining the benefits of being registered as a resident in the anagrafe,

I have been banging on that drum for a long time now. If you are registered as a resident in Italy for the majority of the calendar year then by definition you are also considered fiscally resident as well. Whilst the definitions allowed for people to get around the law, it seems that this will become much harder.

How all this will be put into action is anyone’s guess, but it might be prudent to think that once the laws are refined, then the authorities can use existing information to further investigate matters that have already come to their attention but they have been unable to act on due to the loopholes in the system.

Therefore, the advice is simple:

If you think that anything above might affect you then do some financial planning before it is too late!