Historically, the concept of “domicile” has been central to determining UK Inheritance Tax obligations for British citizens. Many British expats found that despite decades abroad, they were still deemed UK domiciled on their demise, exposing not just their UK assets but their global estates to UK Inheritance Tax.
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Major changes are ahead for British expatriates living abroad
By Jeremy Ferguson
This article is published on: 24th March 2025
24.03.25
New rules which soon come in to effect mark a major shift in this area, particularly impacting British expatriates who have been living overseas for extended periods, replacing the concept of domicile with new long-term residence (LTR) rules. Under these new rules, the test for liability to UK Inheritance taxes will be based on your residency.
For those of you who have lived outside of the UK for at least 10 of the last 20 years, you will now be classified as non-UK long-term residents. This change means your global assets (except UK based holdings such as pensions, property, investments and bank accounts) will be exempt from UK Inheritance tax.
Therefore, if you are intending to remain out of the UK indefinitely or you have already been out of the UK for more than ten years, you should seriously consider moving assets outside of the UK.
As an example, if you hold funds in a UK bank account in GBP then these will remain subject to the old IHT rules as they will be classed as a UK asset, so if the monetary amounts are substantial enough, it makes perfect sense to move these funds outside of the UK. This is something we can help you with by explaining what options are available and where the best interest rates can be found. (This could even offer you the chance of deferring annual taxes here on any interest earned).
On one hand they giveth, however on the other hand they taketh away
An expression many of you will be familiar with. For those of you who watch the UK news, many will be familiar with the plight of the UK farmers who are up in arms about the change in the tax treatment of their farms on inheritance. What amazes me is the fact that in the same budget, the Government announced that UK pensions are now going to form part of your assets assessed for Inheritance taxes, whereas previously they were exempt. I explained earlier about the favourable changes if you live outside of the UK, so on one hand they giveth, but now your pension will be subject to UK Inheritance tax, they taketh away!
This is a real sting in the tail if you have planned to leave your pension to your children due to the tax efficiency this previously offered. If we look at the worst case scenario under the new regime, you have a UK pension and pass away after the age of 75, your beneficiaries could now be hit with a 40% UK Inheritance tax charge and on top of that there could be further tax liabilities when they choose to take income (of up to another 45%…….). I am simply amazed that these facts aren’t getting the column inches the farmers are getting. Again, because of this there may be sense in moving as much of your pension out of the UK scheme as possible.
As with anything as important as this, planning and taking action could save you and your family a fortune in unnecessary taxes. We are here to help explain the issues, sensible ways to deal with them and ultimately helping you to make a well informed decision as to what you should or shouldn’t do..
News addiction can damage your wealth
By John Hayward
This article is published on: 3rd March 2025
03.03.25
Basing investment decisions on daily headlines has led to financial loss
We are a couple of months into 2025 and many aspects of life seem to be engulfed in uncertainty which is no great shock because that has always been the standard. Recent headlines have been pretty much the same as these from the 1960s.
- Washington, Moscow establish ‘hot line’ link
- New peace plan for Middle East
- Rail go-slow begins
- Canada plane crash
Not a lot really changes apart from the global population and prices. Yet it seems that very little is learned with all of this experience. People react to headlines and make decisions based on what might well be complete nonsense. The press obviously has to write stories but that does not mean that they are accurate, or even true.
“Watch what we do, not what we say.”
– John Mitchell, Attorney General to Richard Nixon, 1969
All of this has come to the fore with particular focus on Donald Trump and his team. Many people now have a negative outlook because Donald Trump was elected again. Clients have been asking me if their investments have been affected. They have been pleasantly surprised to learn that, far from the investment world imploding, the value of their investments is higher than it was when Donald Trump was elected on 5th November 2024.
Of course, markets can go down as well as up. However, history has shown us that, over time, there have been more ups than downs.
When considering savings and investments, it has often been wiser to ignore the daily headlines and allow things to sort themselves out which, more often than not, they do. We have already seen how the President can appear to regularly change his mind and moving with these political waves could lead to investment nausea.
When he was first President from 2017 to 2020, the S&P 500 index rose by 47% during his term. The message is that the United States of America is the place to have at least some money right now, if not always. The unfortunate fact of life is that stock markets appear to be more important than the well-being of people in general.
In June 2023, clients of mine decided to surrender their investment plan as they felt that they would do better in a deposit account. In 2023, with high inflation leading to high interest rates, 5% interest in a deposit account seemed extremely attractive to them. I am not certain if they are still receiving 5% but, even if they are, they are about 7% down on what they would have had if they hadn’t surrendered their policy and had left the funds intact. Added to that, they will have had to have paid tax each year on the interest whereas tax on the investment gains would have been deferred whilst within the Spanish compliant bond they had. So often, people react to the headlines, make decisions based on short-term market movements, and lose out. And then blame their financial advisers!
I discourage focusing too much on daily headlines. Other than a story about a cat rescued from a tree, headlines are rarely cheery and there is almost always nothing we can do about what has happened. By taking a lot of notice of daily news, one can be led to making decisions that will lead to regret.
For a considered approach to investing, making you aware of taxation in Spain and the UK, contact me today.
Coming to an email box near you:
- Premium Bonds and their value in Spain
- Consolidating UK private pensions
- Claiming state pensions
- Entry/exit system
- Power of attorney
Top financial tips – Spain February 2025
By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 13th February 2025
13.02.25
Let’s get right into it, the start of the year is a chance to get yourself organised and write down that list of life admin tasks you keep putting off and finally complete, one by one – I am no different to anyone else – and how good does it feel when you tick each one off!
I must admit, I keep a list of ‘tasks’ on my phone, but each day I write these down in front of me which seems much more effective – maybe because I am constantly looking at them? Then I ‘tick’ them off as I go – it’s so satisfying!
Anyway, from a finance perspective this month I remind you of those important admin tasks that you really need to make sure you are on top of and which, if you don’t address, could end up costing you and/or your loved one’s money:
Wills
Make sure, particularly if you have children, that you have a Will and that it is up to date/correct. Many people are astounded to find out that even today there are still archaic rules in place in Spain regarding your children and how inheritance rules apply – make sure you understand this and are comfortable with what could happen.
Mortgages
2025 has a strong forecast for interest rates to continue falling, predicting to around 2% by the end of the year. It could be a good time to review that mortgage and make sure you are not over-paying or to secure a better rate moving forward which, over the lifetime of the mortgage, could save you tens of thousands of euros.
Savings/Investments
With interest rates predicted to continue to fall, although possibly not enough to change inflation, it’s important any savings you have are working hard for you – obtaining a 7% return over 10 years doubles your money. With careful planning and investment advice you can preserve/grow your wealth as per your needs.
Inheritance/Gift planning
Depending on where you live in Spain, it can be very important (and valuable) to know and understand how inheritance tax works versus receiving a gift from someone – in many cases it can be beneficial to do the latter, potentially avoiding much larger, future taxes.
I am here to help you get organised and take those financial worries away. If you would like to discuss any of the above topics in more detail, or you would like to have an initial consultation to explore your personal situation, you can do so here.
Click here to read independent reviews on Chris and his advice.
House prices in Spain
By The Spectrum IFA Group Spain
This article is published on: 12th February 2025
12.02.25
What happened to house prices in Spain in 2024 and what can we expect in the year ahead ?
First, let’s consider how the residential property market performed last year. The significant increase in average house prices, reaching €2,164 per square metre, represented a 12.5% increase from the historical peak of 2007.
This growth was largely driven by the following factors:
Sustained Demand: Economic recovery and job stability have encouraged more people to invest in property, in turn maintaining steady demand in the housing market.
Limited Supply: The scarcity of developable land along with building restrictions have limited the supply of new homes, particularly in urban areas and coastal regions, contributing to price increases.
Foreign Investment: Interest from foreign buyers has been significant, accounting for around 15% of transactions in 2024. The top buying nationalities were, in this order: British, Germans, Dutch, Moroccans, French, Romanians, and Italians. The most sought-after regions were Illes Balears, Comunitat Valenciana, Canary Islands, Regiónde Murcia, Catalonia, and Andalusi
Monetary Policy: Low-interest rate policies implemented by the European Central Bank have facilitated access to affordable mortgages.
If we also review prices regionally across the country, it’s possible to identify quite substantial price variation between autonomous communities:
- The Community of Madrid recorded an average price of €3,780/m², with an annual increase of over 17%.
- The Balearic Islands reached an average price of €3,771/m², rising 15 % compared to the previous year.
- The Canary Islands experienced a 17% increase, reaching €2,327/m².
- Basque Country: The region recorded an average price of €3,157/m².
- Catalonia: The average price stood at €2,615/m² (in the province of Barcelona: €3,007/m²).
Additionally, in terms of city-level price increases, Valencia led with a 24% rise, followed by Málaga (21.5%) and Madrid (20%). In contrast, Huesca was the only provincial capital where housing prices declined, with a drop of 0.4%.
Turning to the possible consequences of price increases, the following points become relevant –
- Reduced Accessibility: Rising prices make it harder for lower-income groups, especially young people and middle-income families, to access homeownership.
- Household Debt: To buy a home, families must take on higher mortgages, increasing their debt levels and potentially affecting their long-term financial stability.
- Regional disparity: While regions such as Madrid, the Balearic Islands, and the Basque Country have the highest prices, other areas have seen more moderate increases, exacerbating territorial disparities.
Looking ahead, according to extensive analysis within the banking sector, house prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but at a more moderate pace. Forecasts suggest:
- 2025: A 5%price increase.
- 2026: A 3%rise.
- 2027: A 2%increase, aligning more closely with inflation predictions.
Factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, high levels of employment, property supply shortages, and high foreign demand, particularly in the major cities, the Mediterranean coast, and the islands, are likely to influence this trend – inevitably though, there is no absolute certainty in market direction from here.
And finally, it is of course essential for potential buyers to carefully assess their financial circumstances and consider market conditions before committing to buying. Seeking advice from mortgage professionals can be invaluable in navigating this complex landscape.
Should you have any inquiries regarding the content of this article, or any other questions relating to mortgages in Spain, please do not hesitate to reach out to us for further information.
Patricia Nadal
Why a Financial Adviser is Essential for Expats Living in Spain
By Barry Davys
This article is published on: 18th January 2025
18.01.25
Change is inevitable, and for many, it can be unsettling—especially when moving to a new country like Spain. Navigating the complexities of a new tax system, managing investments in unfamiliar markets, and ensuring your financial future aligns with both your personal goals and local regulations can be daunting.
Fortunately, in the 19 years I have been in Spain, many of my clients have placed their trust in me, allowing me to guide them through these challenges on their financial journeys. While seeking professional advice might involve a cost, the peace of mind it provides – and the assurance that your wishes are carried out efficiently and effectively – makes it an invaluable investment.
For expats living in Spain, the need for a financial adviser becomes even more apparent. The financial landscape here is unique, with specific regulations, tax implications, and cultural nuances that can easily trip up even the savviest individuals. An experienced adviser ensures that every decision you make is informed, compliant, and tailored to your needs.
The Value of an Adviser in Spain
When you choose to work with a financial adviser in Spain, you gain far more than someone to manage your investments. Here’s what we bring to the table:
- Navigating Spanish Tax Systems: Spain’s tax system is complex, particularly for expats. From wealth taxes to inheritance taxes and the rules around double taxation treaties, an adviser can guide you through the maze and help optimise your arrangements.
- Structuring Tax-Efficient Investments: An adviser ensures your assets are structured to maximise tax efficiency during your lifetime and, importantly, for your family after you’re gone.
- Providing Stability During Market Turbulence: When stock markets fluctuate, it’s easy to panic. An adviser helps you maintain perspective, adapt strategies if necessary, and keep focused on your long-term goals.
- Liaising with Local Experts: In Spain, financial planning often requires collaboration with tax lawyers, notaries, and other local experts. A good adviser coordinates these relationships to safeguard your interests.
- Accessing Expert Investment Insights: Advisers have access to fund managers and global investment opportunities that may outperform self-managed options. This expertise ensures your investments are aligned with your risk tolerance and financial goals.
- Supporting Life Transitions: Whether you’re buying property in Spain, starting or selling a business, or preparing for retirement, an adviser provides a steady hand to guide you through every major change.
Preparing for Life’s Uncertainties
As an adviser with decades of experience, I’ve walked with my clients through every stage of life. For expats, ensuring your financial affairs are in order is crucial—not just for you, but for your loved ones. If your next of kin are unfamiliar with Spanish legal and financial requirements, settling your affairs can become an overwhelming burden.
A good financial adviser ensures everything is prepared ahead of time, reducing stress for those left behind. This includes organising inheritance planning to minimise tax liabilities and ensuring your wishes are carried out exactly as intended.
Planning for Continuity
Even as I consider the future of my own practice, I reflect on the importance of continuity. For my clients, this means having a trusted team in place to manage their affairs should I no longer be available. Similarly, expats need to consider how their financial arrangements will be managed over the long term, especially in a foreign country.
Why You Shouldn’t Go It Alone
While it’s possible to manage your finances independently, the risks of missing out on key opportunities or making costly mistakes are significantly higher. This is especially true in Spain, where the rules and regulations are often different from those in your home country.
Working with a financial adviser ensures that every aspect of your financial life is optimised and aligned with your goals. It’s not just about avoiding pitfalls, it’s about unlocking opportunities that you might not even know exist.
Take Control of Your Financial Future
Whether you’re new to Spain or have lived here for years, the value of professional financial advice cannot be overstated. By partnering with a knowledgeable adviser, you gain more than financial stability, you gain peace of mind, knowing that every decision you make is informed, strategic, and designed to protect your future.
Don’t leave your financial future to chance. Take the first step today. Send me a summary of your situation at barry.davys@spectrum-ifa.com and discover how tailored financial advice can help you achieve your goals while navigating the unique challenges of living in Spain.
Contact me now to begin your journey toward financial clarity, security, and success. Your future self, and your family, will thank you.
AI in financial planning
By Barry Davys
This article is published on: 8th January 2025
08.01.25
Enhancing Your Financial Strategy with Trusted AI Tools
The buzz around Artificial Intelligence (AI) is hard to ignore, with tools like ChatGPT becoming increasingly accessible. While AI offers exciting possibilities, my approach remains measured and focused on one goal: enhancing your financial planning experience.
How AI Enhances Your Financial Planning
AI is a powerful tool, but it’s not a replacement for personalized advice.
Instead, I use AI to complement my expertise, freeing up more time to focus on your unique needs and objectives. Below, I’ve outlined how AI is being integrated into our processes and the benefits it brings to you.
Common Questions About AI in Financial Planning
Will AI take over jobs?
AI is ideal for repetitive tasks, such as sorting recyclable materials in factories. In financial planning, it’s a supportive tool, not a replacement for human judgment and empathy.
Will my financial planning be fully automated?
Absolutely not. Financial planning is deeply personal and requires understanding your goals, values, and circumstances. While AI can assist with specific tasks, I remain at the heart of your financial strategy, ensuring your plan reflects your needs.
Where and How AI is Being Used
I take an incremental approach to adopting AI, focusing on areas that directly enhance your experience and outcomes:
1. Cash Flow Modeling
AI helps generate clearer, more timely reports, allowing us to review and adjust your plan efficiently. Future developments will include portfolio research and implementation improvements, currently in the testing phase.
2. Tax-Efficient Savings
Calculating taxes on investments with complex withdrawal patterns has traditionally been time-consuming. AI now streamlines this process, reducing calculation times from weeks to days, ensuring more accurate and timely tax planning.
3. Investment Research
AI aids in analyzing market trends and investment options, giving us deeper insights to recommend strategies aligned with your goals.
4. Communication
AI enhances how I communicate updates on your financial plan, changes in tax laws, or regulatory developments. You’ll receive information faster and in more digestible formats, keeping you informed every step of the way.
A Human-Centered Approach
AI is an augmentation tool, not a replacement. It allows me to dedicate more time to addressing life events and complex planning needs, including:
- Managing inheritances and inheritance tax (in Spain and the UK)
- Retirement planning tailored to your lifestyle goals
- Tax-efficient strategies whether you stay in Spain or return to the UK
While AI supports behind the scenes, you can trust that I remain your adviser – a person you can rely on for clarity, guidance, and answers to all your financial questions.
A Commitment to Your Success
AI is being introduced thoughtfully, with the sole aim of improving outcomes for you. Rest assured, I’m not becoming a robot or avatar. I will always be here to provide personalized, human-centric advice tailored to your unique circumstances.
If you have any questions about how AI is being used or how it benefits your financial plan, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
To start a conversation book a call with Barry Davys using his online system. This allows you to choose a time that is convenient for you for the call which can be either a phone or video call.
An unusual part of the job
By Jeremy Ferguson
This article is published on: 24th December 2024
24.12.24
I am writing this at the end of another year in which I found myself helping people relocate from the UK to retire to Spain. For many, this was a lifelong dream, for others it was a case of simply having had enough of the UK.
The process is now a lot more involved than it was before Brexit, and my role tends to be focused on making sure all of their finances stack up, and being as tax and investment efficient as possible once they arrive. There are certain things to consider before you leave the UK; an example could be taking your pension lump sum in the tax-free environment of the UK, or making sure your house sale doesn’t create tax implications once you become Spanish resident. This typically revolves around the timing of your move here, which can be critical in relation to effective tax planning.
What has really been obvious to me this year with most of my new clients is the ‘unusual part’ of my job that I had not really come across too much in the past. Most people have been used to making money all of their working lives, be it in the form of receiving a salary each month, or making profits from self-employment. But when retirement comes along, income from working suddenly stops and in the case of people retiring to Spain, they suddenly find themselves in a situation where they no longer receive ‘earned’ income. For many, this is a very difficult situation to deal with psychologically, as they become fearful of spending money.
And this is the unusual part I am referring to, as I find myself spending a lot of time with people running through their finances and expenditure, showing detailed projections of how long their money will last going forward. Of course, it is very difficult as no one knows how long they are going to live, and no one knows what their money will be making going forward, but by making sensible assumptions on both considerations a pretty realistic picture can be painted.
This is the point at which I really emphasise the power of ‘passive income’, and help people to understand its relevance and value. Simply put, even though you have stopped earning money when you retire, it doesn’t mean you have stopped making money. With interest on bank deposits, and growth on investments and pensions, whilst you may be enjoying life relaxing on the beach or playing golf, your hard-earned savings are working away in the background for you. This is why it is so important to keep a close eye on your assets, making sure they are working as hard as possible for you. I always refer to this as passive income.
Over time people become more relaxed about their new situation in retirement, but to start with it can be very difficult to adjust. This is why I spend a lot of time talking with people, explaining that as they ease into retirement this is something that will start to take a back seat in their daily worries, and spending money will become less of a stressful issue. Regular reviews of their financial situation are a great help when it comes to ‘proving’ things will be ok!
If you would like help when it comes to planning your retirement, then please do not hesitate to get in touch.
And let’s hope 2025 is a prosperous year for us all.
Save UK Inheritance Tax if you live in Spain
By Barry Davys
This article is published on: 26th November 2024
26.11.24
It is highly unusual for a UK budget to give us an opportunity to significantly reduce our tax liabilities. The budget of the 30th October 2024 has done exactly this, and by following a few basic steps it is easy, for those of us who have lived outside the UK for more than 10 consecutive years, to benefit greatly.
Background
The UK currently has an Inheritance Tax system where the estate of the deceased is assessed based on worldwide assets if they were considered domiciled in the UK at the time of death. The term domicile and its meaning has been the important factor to consider up to now, and in the UK has a different meaning to “resident” or “residency”.
There is no need for us to go into the definition of domicile here, as the budget has changed the basis for Inheritance Tax (IHT) assessment to a “residency” test, which has also simplified the tax system.
“Residency” Basis
If you have lived outside the UK for more than 10 consecutive years, your non UK assets will not be liable to UK IHT. The rule is as follows –
From 6 April 2025, the test to determine whether non-UK assets are within the scope of IHT will be whether an individual has been resident in the UK for at least 10 out of the last 20 tax years immediately preceding the tax year in which the chargeable event (including death) occurs.
(Editorial Note. Some other press and advisers are stating it is 10 years, not more than 10 years, outside the UK. This applies to a different tax in the Budget, not IHT).
To meet the rule it is necessary to have been out of the UK for more than 10 years, because of a Split Year rule for taxation that will also apply. Again, there is no need to go into detail here, suffice to know that we need to be out of the UK for more than 10 years in the last 20.
How beneficial is the change to “residency basis” of assessment?
The benefit will depend on our personal circumstances, where our assets are based and the value of our assets.
I have used a case study to illustrate –
Mr & Mrs Ingles
– More than 10 consecutive years out of the UK in the last 20 years
– Assets outside the UK include Spanish compliant bonds, bank accounts, QROPS pension and property, all jointly owned, as follows:
Spanish bank accounts €98,000
Spanish compliant bonds €290,000
House (mortgage free) €525,000
QROPS pension €178,000
Total €1,091,000
– UK assets £325,000 jointly owned
Mr and Mrs Ingles can return to the UK and if death occurs within 10 years of the return the following will apply.
– UK assets assessed for UK IHT fall within the UK nil rate band. Tax due £0
– Assets outside the UK not assessed under the residency basis €1,091,000
At the time of writing the exchange rate would give a value to the non UK assets as £865,814. The savings from not having these assets taxed in the UK would be £346,325.60. (£865,814 * 40%)
How to save UK IHT when living in Spain – top six tips
- Take professional advice
- Don’t move back to the UK until you have more than ten consecutive years out of the UK
- Keep your non UK investments outside of the UK outside if you qualify under the new residency test
- Consider moving excess UK funds to non UK investments. For example, ISAs are taxable in Spain and there is now merit in disposing in favour of non UK assets
- Pensions in the UK are liable to IHT from April 2027 and it is therefore doubly important to keep non UK pensions beyond the scope of IHT
- When drawing income or capital from your investments and pensions, take advice on the manner and order in which you do this, as it makes a difference to your IHT exposure and also how long your savings will last
And here is the icing on the cake
Complete more than 10 consecutive years outside the UK, return to the UK and be unfortunate enough to pass away in the next 10 years, and your estate will get the additional benefits (on top of being IHT exempt on non UK assets):
- If you and your spouse were both long term non resident, you will receive the spousal allowance – 100% IHT free transfer of your assets to your spouse if directed by your Will
- Each spouse receives an IHT allowance of £325,000 with only UK assets above this amount being taxed
- If you have a main residence and your total individual wealth is less than £2M you will get the main residence relief of £175,000
If you pass away outside of the UK and your beneficiaries are in the UK, they will pay no UK IHT if you have met the long term non resident criteria. This is because your non UK assets will not be taxed in the UK. As the UK government taxes your estate, not the beneficiary receiving the bequest, no IHT will be payable.
And because you live in Spain, your UK based beneficiaries will be assessed on residency and as they are outside Spain they will not have to pay Spanish IHT on non-Spanish assets.
Conclusion
The changes to UK IHT rules are hugely important for those of us living outside the UK. It may be possible to leave anything from tens of thousands pounds (or euros) to hundreds of thousands to our family and/or worthy causes.
There is a great deal of planning that can be completed to get the best outcome for you. It will depend on your personal circumstances. However, as a principle, it is better to start this planning sooner rather than later.
To start a conversation book a call with Barry Davys using his online system. This allows you to choose a time that is convenient for you for the call which can be either a phone or video call.
Source: HMRC, UK Gov 30th October 2024
Notes
This article is for general information purposes only. Professional tax advice must be taken before undertaking planning to benefit from changes to the UK IHT system.
The content is based on our understanding of legislation at 25th November 2024
The policy paper issued by HMRC as part of the Budget becomes law when the Act of Parliament has been passed.
You can find out more about Barry Davys of The Spectrum IFA Group and his clients by clicking Barry Davys IFA
Update on UK pensions when living in Spain
By Barry Davys
This article is published on: 4th November 2024
04.11.24
During the Brexit negotiations, many of us Brits living abroad were concerned about our fate following March 2019. Thankfully, Britain and the EU reached a solid agreement about the rumoured ‘freezing’ of the state pension after Brexit, and the result is very positive indeed – state pensions will continue to increase for those of us living in the EU.
To read the full article please click here www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/britain-eu-reach-agreement-expats-state-pension-brexit/
Further to the post above about the UK State pension. Here is how helpful this agreement to increase pensions has been. All figures per week
- 2017 – £159.55
- 2018 – £164.35
- 2019 – £168.60
- 2020 – £175.20
- 2021 – £179.60
- 2022 – £185.15
- 2023 – £203.85
- 2024 – £221.20
- 2025 – Budget announcement £230.30 (has to be confirmed by Parliament)
At a time that is convenient for you
ECB Rate Cuts
By Spectrum IFA
This article is published on: 30th October 2024
30.10.24
June, September, and now October. The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its third rate cut in 2024 and the second consecutive reduction—a sequence not seen in 13 years (see graph).
Inflation is now at 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2021 and below the 2% target.
The ECB’s last meeting of the year will be on December 12th . Monetary analysts predict four more rate cuts by mid-2025, to be followed by a period of stability. According to the ECB’s survey, marginal rate adjustments could occur in 2026, especially in the first half, which would bring rates to around 2% for that year.
As a result, the Euribor has declined. In October, the monthly Euribor rate stood at 2.711%, a decrease of 0.225 points from the previous month’s 2.936%. Starting 2024 at 3.609%, the Euribor has accumulated a total drop of 0.898 points over the year, as illustrated in the accompanying table and graphs.
As a result, we are starting to see a reaction from the banks. With inflation now at a low and the Euribor experiencing steady declines, further cuts are expected into 2025. This trend has prompted a cautious response from banks, which are gradually reducing interest rates. As the ECB signals possible marginal adjustments by 2026, the Eurozone may enter a phase of rate stability, providing a potentially favourable environment for both borrowers and lenders.
Should you have any inquiries regarding the content of this article, or any other questions relating to mortgages in Spain, please do not hesitate to reach out to us for further information.
Patricia Nadal
spain@spectrum-mortgages.com