Inflation is something we’re all too familiar with; the same amount of money buys less than it used to. We’re reminded of inflation every time a café con leche costs a little more than it did last year, but when we look at what inflation really is, it doesn’t affect everyone equally.
Inflation in Spain: Why Retirees Need To Be Aware
By Jett Parker-Holland
This article is published on: 23rd March 2026
23.03.26
Put simply, inflation is the rise in the cost of goods and services. We’re given the single figure that yearly inflation in Spain is 2.7%, but this is just an average figure, and not all prices increase at the same rate. When I speak with clients who are retiring, they are often worried about the effect of inflation on their lifestyle in Spain, and when we look at their spending, it’s clear that their personal inflation is often much higher than the 2.7% headline figure.
For retirees, inflation can hit hard, with some of their largest expenses being well above the average inflation rate. In Spain, we are seeing food inflation at over 3%, lifestyle costs rising by 4.3%, and home and utility expenses rising by over 6% annually. When these form a large part of your expenses, it’s understandable why inflation feels higher than the headline.
When personal inflation runs higher than expected, this can be a real concern for retirees, especially those holding larger cash balances in the bank. However, it doesn’t have to be all bad news: When expenses begin to outpace income, a financial review can make all the difference.
Even though we may feel the pinch, inflation doesn’t have to be entirely negative. While the cost of living is rising, so too are the values of many assets. For example, on the Costa del Sol, property prices have been increasing by around 5% per year. For those who own assets such as property or investments, this means inflation is not just increasing costs; it is also increasing the value of what they own. In that sense, inflation can begin to work in your favour, rather than against you.
For many, the real issue isn’t inflation itself; it’s where their money is held. When personal inflation exceeds the 1–2% typically offered by banks, savings quietly lose purchasing power over time, particularly once taxes are taken into account.
This is a common situation, but with the right structure, it is possible to ensure that wealth grows well ahead of inflation, while remaining far more tax-efficient and still accessible when needed.
This is something I help retirees with when they come to me for a financial review. The issue is often simple: their savings support their lifestyle, but are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living. Fortunately, we have helped many clients in this exact situation. The first step is to review their overall position. This typically includes their home, state and private pensions, and their savings. Many British expats benefit from receiving the full UK State Pension, which is a strong foundation as it is protected against inflation and increases each year. In 2026, for example, it is rising by 4.8%, reflecting higher UK inflation.
We then look at private pensions, where there is often an opportunity to improve both structure and performance. Ensuring that pensions are aligned with life in Spain, grow efficiently, and provide a sustainable income can have a noticeable impact.
Finally, we turn to cash savings. While it is important to maintain an appropriate level of cash, excess savings in the bank tend to yield low returns and are subject to annual taxation on interest. Over time, this can result in a gradual loss of purchasing power. With the right structure, however, it is possible to reposition these savings into low-risk investments designed to deliver stable returns, helping wealth to grow ahead of inflation rather than fall behind. This allows savings to generate stronger returns than traditional bank deposits, while producing an income that can keep pace with inflation. When these elements are brought together into a clear plan, the change can be significant. Clients move from gradually losing ground to having their finances work to support their lifestyle, both now and in the future.
The result is a more efficient structure, significantly reduced taxation, and the ability to enjoy more of life in Spain, while ultimately passing on greater value to their loved ones.
As a Chartered Wealth Manager based in Spain, I work with expatriates seeking to make the most of their lives in Spain. Often, a short conversation is enough to identify simple changes that can improve how clients structure their wealth and lifestyle.
If you have already relocated, or are considering a move, and are unsure whether your arrangements are structured efficiently, I am always happy to have an initial conversation. A well-timed review can make a real and meaningful difference.
Wealth Tax in Catalonia – Frequently Asked Questions
By Barry Davys
This article is published on: 19th March 2026
19.03.26
A common question from people living in Catalonia is about Wealth Tax; What assets are Wealth Tax based on, how it is calculated, how can we manage the amount we have to pay, when is it due and what forms are needed for Wealth Tax. This article gives insight into the answers to these questions.
What assets are Wealth Tax based on?
Wealth Tax in Catalonia is assessed annually on our Worldwide assets but less liabilities Eg mortgages.
- Some assets are excluded including Family Business shareholdings (conditions apply), business or professional assets linked to your main source of income, intellectual or industrial property rights and some property rights. Jewellery, art and luxury items are not automatically exempt.
- Art and Antiques can both be excluded IF they are registered with an historical heritage organisation.
How is wealth tax calculated in Catalonia?
Each individual is given an allowance of €500,000 before tax is assessed. In addition, there is an allowance for owners of their main residence of upto €300,000. If your share of the house is €250,000 you can only claim €250,000 as the allowance. If your share of the house is €450,000, you will be given an allowance of €300,000 and the balance will be added to the rest of your wealth to be taxed.
Over and above these allowances, tax is calculated in a series of levels. These levels start from the first euro above the allowances given in the answer above. For example, if your wealth is €667,129.45 and you do not have a main residence, from the table below the tax will be €350.97. (667,129.45 -€500,000 = 167,129.45)
Wealth Tax Rates in Catalonia
| Net tax base Up to euros | Tax payable Euros | Remainder of tax base Up to euros | Applicable rate Percentage |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 167,129.45 | 0.210 |
| 167,129.45 | 350.97 | 167,123.43 | 0.315 |
| 334,252.88 | 877.41 | 334,246.87 | 0.525 |
| 668,499.75 | 2,632.21 | 668,500.00 | 0.945 |
| 1,336,999.75 | 8,949.54 | 1,336,999.26 | 1,365 |
| 2,673,999.01 | 27,199.58 | 2,673,999.02 | 1,785 |
| 5,347,998.03 | 74,930.46 | 5,347,998.03 | 2,205 |
| 10,695,996.06 | 192,853.82 | 9,304,003.94 | 2,750 |
| 20,000,000.00 | 448,713.93 | upwards | 3,480 |
Source: Agencia Tributaria, España
How can we manage the amount we pay?
The amount we pay is based on the assets listed above. However, to avoid our total tax liability leaving us with little or no income, a “tax shield” (Escudo fiscal sobre el patrimonio) has been put in place. This shield is based upon a set formula
- Our total Wealth Tax and Income Tax for the year, added together, cannot exceed 60% of our income
- When applying this 60% limit a minimum Wealth Tax must still be paid of 20% of the Wealth Tax due (Hence the informal name of the 60/20% rule)
A way, therefore, to manage our Wealth tax liability is to plan our income and our asset purchases.
- When purchasing assets that will be assessed for Wealth Tax, consider buying them in joint names. Each individual will have the €500,000 allowance and also the Wealth tax value will be half of the total value per person. This can lead to a significant reduction in the 20% minimum tax due figure.
- Some savings and investments make income payments. Others do not pay out income, instead allowing it to accumulate in the investment. Advice should be taken but including in your portfolio some savings that do not pay an income reduces the 60% of the income amount.
- Structuring family business ownership carefully
- Identifying and documenting the assets and rights of individuals related directly to their business or professional activities.
When is Wealth Tax due and what forms are needed?
The assessment for Wealth Tax is a section within our La Renta annual tax return. The proper name of the form is Modello 100. This is the form you are likely already completing for your income tax and savings tax. Be sure to provide your tax lawyer with the values of assets that may be assessed for Wealth Tax so they can be included on La Renta. This form must be submitted by the 30th June at the latest, whilst La Renta’s can be submitted as early as April.
An important point to note is that all the taxes arising from the La Renta have to be paid by the 30th June. This means any income tax, capital gains tax and Wealth tax have to be paid together.
What The Real Risk Investors Are Watching
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 14th March 2026
14.03.26
Geopolitics and Oil Prices
Over the past couple of weeks I’ve received a number of questions from concerned clients about the latest geopolitical developments and what they might mean for markets.
Whenever headlines become intense, it can understandably feel as though something dramatic must be happening in financial markets as well. The reality is often more nuanced — and this appears to be one of those moments.
In 30 seconds
Markets have reacted to rising geopolitical tensions, but the moves so far suggest caution rather than panic.
The key variable investors are watching is energy prices. Historically, bear markets tend to be linked to recessions, and the main risk from the current conflict is whether sustained oil price increases could slow economic growth.
Setting the Scene
Recent tensions in the Middle East involving Iran, the United States and Israel have dominated global headlines and created understandable concern among investors.
When events escalate quickly, it is easy to assume markets will react dramatically. Yet the response from investors so far has been far more measured. Markets have certainly moved, but the behaviour looks much more like caution than panic.
The real question investors are asking is not simply what is happening geopolitically — but whether it could become an economic shock.
So far, markets appear to be adjusting to geopolitical risk rather than assuming it will derail the global economy.
What’s Happening
The most immediate reaction has been in energy markets.
Oil prices briefly surged as investors priced in the risk of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes in the global energy system. At one stage prices approached $120 per barrel, before retreating to below $90, still significantly higher than the $65 level seen at the end of February.
This sensitivity reflects the strategic importance of the region. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning even temporary disruption can move prices quickly.
Equity markets have moved lower, although declines have been relatively contained. Across developed markets, equities have generally fallen between 2% and 6%, while emerging markets have seen slightly larger pullbacks due to their greater reliance on imported energy.
Safe-haven assets have also seen some demand. The US dollar strengthened, while gold briefly rose above $5,400 per ounce before easing again.
Despite dramatic headlines, the overall reaction has remained relatively orderly. As LGT Wealth Management noted in a recent update:
“While the headlines have been dramatic, market moves so far suggest investors are reacting with caution rather than panic.”
Interestingly, much of the volatility has occurred beneath the surface of markets. The Rathbones multi-asset team recently highlighted that while headline equity indices have only fallen around 3–4%, there has been significant rotation between sectors and individual stocks.
Chris Saunders of New Horizon Asset Management also notes that the conflict is beginning to affect other parts of the global economy. Disruptions to Iranian production have tightened fertiliser markets, pushing prices higher and raising the possibility that food prices could also rise in the months ahead.
Why It Matters
When geopolitical crises occur, investors tend to focus on one key question: Could this trigger a recession?
This distinction is important because historically bear markets (defined as a fall of 20% or more in stock markets) tend to occur when the economy enters a recession, rather than simply because geopolitical tensions increase.
One of the main channels through which geopolitical events can affect economic growth is energy prices. Economists often use a simple rule of thumb: every $10 increase in oil prices can add roughly 0.3% to inflation and reduce economic growth by a similar amount.
With current expectations for US economic growth around 2.2%, oil prices would likely need to rise well above $120–$130 per barrel and remain there for a sustained period before recession risks became materially elevated.
At present, prices remain below those levels.
However, as Chris Saunders notes, the key variable may be how long the conflict continues, as prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply could delay interest-rate cuts and keep inflation pressures elevated.
Perspective
This helps explain why markets have responded cautiously rather than dramatically.
Periods of geopolitical tension can certainly create short-term volatility, but they rarely change the long-term trajectory of global markets unless they spill over into the broader economy.
Portfolio managers also emphasise the importance of remaining disciplined during periods like this.
As one Rathbones portfolio manager noted in a recent discussion:
“What was a good company before the weekend is still a good company afterwards. The share price may now be lower — which can create opportunities.”
Similarly, the investment team at Atomos emphasised that predicting short-term market movements during geopolitical crises is extremely difficult, reinforcing the importance of maintaining diversified portfolios designed to withstand periods of uncertainty.
Energy shocks can also accelerate structural change. Previous crises — including Europe’s energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — helped accelerate investment in renewable energy, batteries and alternative energy systems.
Key Insights
• Markets have reacted with caution rather than panic despite dramatic geopolitical headlines
• Oil prices remain the key variable investors are watching
• Historically, bear markets are far more closely linked to recessions than geopolitical events alone
• Current oil prices remain below levels historically associated with recession risk
• Maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment strategy remains the most effective approach during volatility
In Summary
Geopolitical developments will inevitably continue to evolve over the coming weeks. However, markets so far appear to be adjusting rather than overreacting.
History repeatedly shows that while headlines can move quickly, markets often prove more resilient than expected.
I hope you found this update interesting and helpful.
If anything has raised questions for you, or you’d simply like to talk something through, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. That’s exactly what I’m here for.
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Pension Update: UK State, Irish Executive Pensions & International SIPPs
By Peter Brooke
This article is published on: 12th March 2026
12.03.26
What do I need to know?
I hope this newsletter finds you well; So, pensions are back in the spotlight as governments in the UK and Ireland introduce meaningful changes that could affect how individuals and business owners save for retirement. In this edition, we break down what’s changing, why it matters, and what you should be thinking about next.
Should Expatriates Keep Paying UK NI Contributions After 2026?
As you may have seen in the recent UK budget from April 2026, most expatriates will no longer be eligible to pay Class 2 National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and will instead need to use Class 3 contributions which cost more — but this still may offer an excellent return on investment.
The ruling states:
“From 6 April 2026, individuals will no longer be able to pay voluntary Class 2 NICs for periods abroad. Only voluntary Class 3 contributions will be available for tax years 2026 to 2027 onwards.
This change does not affect any voluntary contributions that can be paid for periods abroad before 6 April 2026 – there is more detail here
What you should do next
- Check your State Pension forecast – you can do this here: you will need a Government Gateway ID for the online system OR can contact them here
- See how many missing years you have
- Confirm that you’re eligible for Class 2 NI Contribution for previous years living abroad – check here
- Consider topping up those years at the lower cost Class 2NICs
If you’d like help interpreting your forecast or reviewing your eligibility for Class 2 vs Class 3 contributions, feel free to share the summary or screenshots — I’ll walk you through the options.
The ruling also states that “New applications to pay voluntary Class 3 NICs will need to have either”
- lived in the UK for 10 years in a row
- paid at least 10 years of National Insurance contributions while in the UK
What remains unclear is whether contributions paid for whilst abroad will count towards the 10 year rule and whether it is therefore sensible to pay for missing years before April 2026 to ensure you have 10 qualifying years so that you will be eligible to pay future years.
It certainly appears that long term non-UK residents, without 10 years of NICs, could be “locked out” of the system from April.
Why topping up is still worth it — even at Class 3 rates
Based on current UK State Pension levels, even at Class 3 NIC rates (around £900 per year), each extra qualifying year typically adds about £330 per year to your State Pension for life (though this will depend on future government policy).
This means most people recover the cost in less than three years of receiving their pension — and every year after that is a financial gain.
You generally need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions to receive the full UK State Pension. That’s why it’s important to know three things:
- How many qualifying years you already have
- How many past years you can still buy back (at Class 2 rates until April 2026, if eligible)
- How many future years you still have before reaching State Pension age
Once you understand these three numbers, you can work out exactly how many additional years you might need. And remember: you may not have to pay for every remaining year at the higher Class 3 rate after April 2026.
Many expatriates will reach the 35-year mark using a combination of existing contributions, cheaper buy-back years, and only a small number of future payments.
Government Gateway tip:
To log in, you need to receive a security code by text message. If you change your mobile number, make sure you update it with HMRC before you lose access to the old phone number. Otherwise, you may be locked out of your Government Gateway account and unable to view your State Pension record.
Changes to Irish Executive Pensions – What You Need to Know
Ireland is restructuring older Executive Pension Plans (EPPs), and by April 2026 the IORP II regulations (see details here) will require EPP schemes to either:
- transfer into a Master Trust, or
- transfer into a PRSA (Personal Retirement Savings Account)
…or risk becoming frozen or facing significantly higher running costs.
For clients living outside Ireland, the decision between these options is particularly important.
Why this decision matters
If you expect to remain an EU resident during retirement, there are often strong long-term reasons to transfer your pension out of Ireland; (I cant cover this in this newsletter but contact me if you want more information).
Because of this, it is crucial that whatever happens to your pension today does not restrict your ability to make that transfer in the future.
- Moving your pension into a PRSA can, in most cases, limit or block your ability to transfer the pension out of Ireland at a later date, which can unintentionally reduce your planning flexibility.
- A Master Trust may offer better long-term portability — but only if the trust deed specifically permits future overseas transfers.
Our guidance for clients
To protect your future options, we strongly recommend:
✔ Before agreeing to a Master Trust transfer, obtain written confirmation that the scheme allows transfers to foreign pension arrangements in the future.
✔ Do not sign any PRSA transfer paperwork without a full review of the long-term implications.
✔ Forward any pension documents or transfer requests to us — we will assess them for you and advise on your position.
Our role
We help clients:
-
- Analyse their current Irish pension structure
- Confirm whether future overseas transfers will remain available
- Ensure the chosen structure supports your long-term retirement strategy, not just short-term compliance
Personalised Guidance?
If you hold — or think you may hold — an Irish Executive Pension, reply to this email or click here to schedule a consultation.
We’ll ensure the restructuring supports your long-term financial interests, rather than simply following administrative defaults.
UK Private Pensions – Options for Expatriates
Since Brexit, many expatriates are discovering that once they are no longer UK-resident, it is often not possible to receive ongoing regulated advice on their UK pensions from either UK-based advisers or overseas firms like Spectrum.
We regularly see clients being contacted by their UK adviser or pension provider and told that the relationship must end — leaving them unadvised and unable to manage their pensions effectively.
At the same time, changes to pension regulation mean that QROPS transfers are now far less common and often no longer suitable. This leaves many expatriates unsure how to handle their UK pension schemes as they approach or move through retirement.
A practical solution: International SIPPs (Self Invested Personal Pension)
Your UK pensions can still be actively and professionally managed by a local adviser by transferring them to an International SIPP. This can also allow you to consolidate multiple pension pots into one, making your retirement planning far simpler.
An International SIPP can provide:
✔ Access to regulated advice
✔ Better consolidation and control, including currency options
✔ Potentially lower fees
✔ A flexible investment approach aligned to your residency and long-term goals
Our role
We can help you:
- Assess your existing UK pensions
- Guide the process of transferring to an International SIPP
- Provide ongoing investment management
- Build a long-term retirement strategy
- Support your cross-border financial planning
If you have a UK pension and live abroad…
You don’t need to leave your pension un-managed. Send us your pension information and we’ll assess whether an International SIPP could allow us to advise you properly and optimise your retirement planning.
Just to recap…
Important pension changes are now underway across the UK and Ireland and for many expatriates and business owners these changes create both risk and opportunity.
- From April 2026, most expatriates will no longer be able to pay low-cost Class 2 UK National Insurance, making it more expensive to build State Pension entitlement in future. Checking your record and filling any gaps early could significantly improve your lifelong retirement income.
- In Ireland, older executive pension schemes are being forced to restructure under IORP II, by April 2026. The choice between a PRSA and a Master Trust is not just administrative — it can directly affect your ability to transfer your pension abroad in the future.
- For those holding UK private pensions while living abroad, access to advice and suitable structures has become more restricted since Brexit. In many cases, an International SIPP now offers the most practical way to regain control, consolidate pensions, and receive ongoing professional management.
Across all three areas, the key message is the same: early decisions have long-term consequences. A short review today can protect flexibility, reduce future costs, and strengthen your retirement position.
If any of these changes affect you, we encourage you to get in touch. We’re here to help you navigate the complexity and ensure your pension remains aligned with your long-term plans.
If you have any questions please send them via the channels below, or the booking system – always drop me a quick message if you need a time slot outside of those available.
If you have missed any previous emails, click here to access the Archive.
For now, have a great day, speak soon…
Best regards
Peter Brooke
Mobile & Whatsapp: +33 6 87 13 68 71
Email: peter.brooke@spectrum-ifa.com
Calendly booking system: https://calendly.com/peterbrooke/30min
Banking, Italian style
By Andrew Lawford
This article is published on: 5th March 2026
05.03.26
Missing billions, shady finance, body-snatchers and a murder investigation.
Is it a new Netflix series?
No, it’s banking, Italian style…
Recently we have had confirmation that the proposed acquisition of Mediobanca by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be completed. This amounts to the apparently inexplicable phenomenon of one of Italy’s best banks being taken over by what is, arguably, the country’s worst. Read on for proof that truth is certainly stranger than fiction in the world of Italian banking.
Let’s start at the beginning. Well, not exactly the beginning, because MPS was founded in 1472. We do, however, need to go back to 2008 and the disastrous aftermath of the takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro.
Many will remember this moment as the beginning of the end for Royal Bank of Scotland, the lead acquirer, but there were in fact two other banks involved in the takeover (Santander and Fortis), which led to a curious side-show in the context of ABN Amro’s Italian assets.
Banca Antonveneta, at the time a moderately important domestic bank, had only been acquired by ABN Amro in 2005 as a result of the bankopoli scandal.
This is a whole other story involving market manipulation, a corrupt Governor of the Bank of Italy (the only one ever to have been forced to resign) and an investor group that nicknamed itself I furbetti del quartierino (the local hustlers) – but I digress. Antonveneta ended up in the hands of Spanish group Santander as part of the ABN Amro takeover and the asset was assigned a value of €6.6 billion, yet it was sold a few days later to MPS for €9 billion. The ridiculousness of this situation was summed up by one of the analysts present when the deal was announced. He posed this simple question to MPS management: “Did you even negotiate the price for five minutes?”
Of course, 2008 was no time to be doing an ambitious bank purchase and MPS soon found itself secretly counting the cost of the transaction. In order to save face, it organised a series of derivatives transactions designed to hide the reality of its deteriorating solvency position. It took a while for the truth to come out, but it was breathtaking when it did. The tone was set by the death of David Rossi, the bank’s Head of Communications, whose body was found in the alleyway beneath his office window in 2013.
Whilst officially ruled to have been a suicide, there was plenty of speculation that other, darker forces were involved. Of course, as is so often the case in financial frauds, lengthy court proceedings resulted in acquittals on criminal charges for all concerned.
Now, if the sordid story finished here with the collapse of MPS, the next chapter could not have been written, but of course politicians never want to let a good crisis go to waste and banks are always fun political toys.
Amongst the state’s interventions to prop up MPS, we can highlight the issuance of guaranteed bonds (Tremonti Bonds, named after the finance minister of the Berlusconi era, and then Monti Bonds, named after technocrat PM Mario Monti), subsequently repaid during rounds of capital increases that left the state on the hook for about €7 billion by the end of 2022. Subsequent equity sales brought in about €2.7 billion and left a remaining stake of about 12% in MPS. Following the takeover of Mediobanca, the state’s shareholding in the combined group has now been diluted to under 5%, currently worth somewhere over €1 billion. Not a great return on its investment so far.
But what of Mediobanca? Founded immediately following the end of WWII to finance the reconstruction of Italian industry, it was led by Enrico Cuccia, a legendary figure in Italian finance, until his death in 2000.
It is said that Cuccia played his cards so close to his chest that he would type any particularly important letters on his own typewriter so as not to allow the possibility of sensitive information leaking from his office.
To give you a taste of the kind of deal Cuccia was famous for: when FIAT was in grave financial difficulties in the ‘70s, Cuccia arranged for Gaddafi’s Libya to buy a 10% shareholding – it wasn’t a good look for FIAT’s Gianni Agnelli, who was rather happier in the company of friends like Henry Kissinger, but needs must. It’s not surprising that Cuccia was generally considered to be the one pulling the strings that made the stock market move – a point that was made rather morbidly when his corpse was stolen from its grave on Lake Maggiore and held to ransom. The demand, aside from cash, was that the Milan stock exchange index had to regain the level of 50,000 points (+35%!) by the end of the year. This didn’t happen, so evidently there were at least some limits to the man’s power.
The question of course is: why has this transaction occurred?
The following is from the official MPS press release following the acquisition:
The new Group structure is aimed at achieving strategic and profitability objectives and at fully achieving industrial synergies so to maximize value creation. This configuration is designed to enhance the distinctive expertise of Mediobanca and its professional resources, within a specialized operating model.
Right. This type of communication is technically known as a supercazzola in Italian. Don’t worry about the lack of subtitles – nothing he says makes any sense, which is sort of the point…
The sad reality is that Mediobanca, aside from being one of the crown jewels of Italian finance, sits atop another crown jewel: a 13% shareholding in the insurer Generali, a stake currently worth about €7 billion. It may well be that the dismemberment of Mediobanca and Generali and the distribution of value to its shareholders will be part of the Italian government’s strategy to promote nationalist capitalism. It’s hard to resist the temptation to say that Cuccia, who studiously avoided political interference, will be rolling in his grave (yes, his body was eventually returned to its rightful resting place).
Crude awakening in the Middle East
By Gareth Horsfall
This article is published on: 4th March 2026
04.03.26
I wanted to communicate some information regarding what is going on in the Middle East with some information from Evelyn Partners ( one of our asset management partners) in an email newsletter to all advisers, which provides perspective regarding investments. If you have any questions or thoughts, do not hesitate to get in touch and fingers crossed this situation does not last long!
Crude awakening in the Middle East
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have brought renewed market volatility and lifted oil prices, but diversified portfolios offer resilience in periods of uncertainty
What has happened?
Over the weekend, tensions between the US, Israel and Iran escalated materially. Israeli strikes have reportedly targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, while the US has signaled a broader objective that may extend beyond deterrence towards regime change. Iran has responded with attacks affecting parts of the Gulf region, including strikes impacting areas in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as Israel.
This marks a significant shift from prior contained flare-ups. Financial markets are responding to the risk of further escalation.
Initial market reaction
Three key price moves frame the immediate response:
- Brent crude oil is up roughly 10%, to around $80 per barrel.
- S&P 500 futures are modestly down approximately 1.5%.
- Gold is up around 2.5%, reflecting demand for traditional safe havens.
The move in oil is central.
Iran is a major exporter, and critically, more than 80% of Iranian oil exports go to China. Iran is also strategically important to China’s Belt and Road initiative, is a member of BRICS, and plays a role in facilitating trade outside Western sanction frameworks.
In that context, this is not just a regional issue; it intersects with broader US – China strategic dynamics. Should the US gain greater leverage over oil flows coming out of both Iran and Venezuela, it would provide Washington with a significant bargaining chip ahead of the upcoming summit between Presidents Trump and Xi of China.
Paradoxically, such leverage could also deter China from blockading or invading Taiwan, a far larger systemic risk to global markets given Taiwan’s dominance in producing advanced semiconductors.
Key risks to watch
The primary “tail risk” remains disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes. At present, while there are signs of disruption – including higher shipping insurance costs and some tanker hesitancy – the Strait remains open and traffic continues. A full closure or mining of the waterway would represent a far more severe shock to energy markets and global growth.
There is also the risk of broader attacks on regional energy infrastructure or US-linked assets across the Gulf, as most of the key oil infrastructure sits within short-range missile range of Iran. However, at this stage, markets are pricing heightened uncertainty rather than a sustained supply shock.
It is also worth noting that global oil inventories have been rising, which provides a partial buffer against near-term supply disruption. That does not eliminate risk, but it may dampen the impact unless escalation becomes materially worse.
Equities have softened modestly, but earnings growth remains the dominant driver of equity markets. Corporate Earnings Per Share momentum has so far offset geopolitical and tariff concerns this year, and we are not seeing signs of systemic stress or disorderly market functioning.
Portfolio implications
Periods like this are uncomfortable, but they are not unfamiliar. We have seen similar episodes – most recently during prior Israel–Iran tensions and in the 2022 energy shock.
History shows that while oil and gold often react sharply, diversified portfolios tend to prove resilient.
Across asset classes, we are seeing natural offsets:
- Energy prices rise, supporting oil and gas equities.
- Gold acts as a multi-use hedge during geopolitical stress.
- Inflation-linked bonds, such as TIPS, provide protection should higher crude feed into inflation expectations.
Within equities, exposure to energy producers can help offset broader market weakness linked to rising oil prices. In fixed income, inflation-linked bonds could benefit from rising inflation expectations. Alternatives such as gold continue to demonstrate their value during energy shocks, as seen in previous episodes including 2022.
Investment strategies are designed with periods like this in mind. They are constructed to withstand geopolitical shocks, inflation pressures and bouts of market volatility, while remaining fully liquid and aligned with clients’ long-term objectives and risk profiles.
Looking ahead
We expect markets to remain volatile in the days ahead. News flow may be intense and, at times, sensational. It is important to distinguish between media tone and market fundamentals.
At this stage, this is not a systemic market event. We are not seeing disorderly trading conditions or liquidity stress.Remain vigilant and ready to adjust portfolio positioning should fundamentals materially change.
For now, the appropriate stance is calm, disciplined and long term. Periods of geopolitical tension are unsettling, but diversified portfolios are designed to navigate precisely these environments. We will continue to monitor developments closely and keep clients informed with measured, evidence-based updates as the week progresses.
I know these are not easy time and so if you have any questions, or would just like to send me some comments then feel free to do so. I am always interested to hear your thoughts on these matters.
French financial update – March 26
By Katriona Murray-Platon
This article is published on: 4th March 2026
04.03.26
After a very wet, windy and stormy February it is lovely see some sunshine and the first spring flowers coming into bloom.
The income tax thresholds have not been frozen as initially planned in the 2026 finance bill; instead, they have increased by 0.9%, aligning with the 2025 rate of inflation. The new tax-free allowance is €11,600 per person. The other tax bands are as follows:
| INCOME | RATE |
| Up to €11,600 | 0% |
| From €11,601 to €29,579 | 11% |
| From €29,580 to €84,577 | 30% |
| From €84,578 to €181,917 | 41% |
| Over €181,917 | 45% |
Employees can deduct a set amount of €509 from their taxable salaries for costs, capped at €14,556. The 10% abatement before tax will still apply to pensions with a minimum of €454 and a maximum of €4439.
To reduce your taxes and assist you at home you may use home help such as a gardener or cleaner. Now the cost of home delivered meals to the handicapped or elderly and their dependents also qualifies for a tax credit even if you don’t have other kinds of home help. While services may be more limited in rural areas, it’s worth exploring.
Another measure that has been scrapped is the increased VAT threshold for independent workers and furnished rentals. This threshold remains unchanged.
As mentioned in last month’s Ezine, social charges have risen from 17.2% to 18.6%. Whilst this does not apply to assurance vies nor PEL accounts, it will apply to PER retirement accounts. Also, after the recent fall in interest rates on the Livret A and LDDS accounts on 1st February, the interest rate on the LEP account has also dropped from 2.7% to 2.5%.
Assurance Vies remain the most popular investment products in France with €2,107 billion currently invested, compared with only €449 billion in Livret A and €136 billion in retirement accounts. According to INSEE, investments in Assurance Vies have increased over the years with €121 billion invested in 2005, €135 billion in 2015 and €192 billion in 2025. Whilst Euro Funds (the money that that French government and businesses borrow from the insurance companies) remain the preferred asset class, this figure has decreased from 79% to 61% in 2025 with the remaining 39% in equities. Although the average rate of Euro Funds was 2.7% in 2025, it has rarely outpaced inflation over the past 8 years. Our assurance vies offer a more diversified, cross-border approach, making them more suitable for English speaking expats.
On 25th February 2026 the Prudential Assurance Company board reviewed the Prufund Expected Growth Rates (EGR) as part of its quarterly review. Prufund aims to help customers grow their investments over the medium to long term (5 to 10 years) while protecting them from short-term market fluctuations through the unique smoothing process. The Expected Growth Rate (EGR) is the forward-looking element of the unique Prufund smoothing mechanism. This quarter the EGRs for all versions of Prufund remain unchanged.
However, there have been some upward movements to the, the Unit Price Adjustment (UPA), the backward-looking element of the Prufund smoothing process, which is formulaic and non-discretionary, as follows:
Prufund Growth GBP +2.54%
Prufund Growth Euro + 3.25%
Prufund Growth USD + 3.46%
This is positive news for Prudential International investors when they receive their quarterly statements at the end of the month.
At the time of writing, the US and Israel have launched strikes against Iran, which will have an impact on oil prices and may cause some short-term market volatility. However, our well diversified portfolios are designed to withstand periods of geopolitical tensions. In times of intense media coverage, it’s important to remain calm and focus on long-term strategies.
Tax & Financial Webinar in Portugal
By Portugal team
This article is published on: 3rd March 2026
03.03.26
Tuesday 10th March 2026
10.30 – 12.00pm
Understanding Investing: A Professional Masterclass
Cut through the noise. Make better investment decisions.
This webinar is designed to help you understand what really drives long-term investment success.
With a professional fund manager, we will explore how investing really works, what truly matters over the long term, and where complexity often adds cost without adding value.
The webinar is open to everyone, whether you are a first-time or experienced investor. This is your opportunity to learn how the professionals research, analyse and build portfolios.
The webinar is designed to provide a clearer understanding of what truly drives long-term investment success, including:
- What actually drives long-term returns
- How to protect your capital in changing markets
- The most common (and costly) investment mistakes
- Managed funds vs index funds (ETFs) — what the evidence shows
- How tax and structure can quietly reduce returns
Alternatively, if you would prefer to discuss your own situation privately, we are available for individual consultations.
Event details
📅 Tuesday 10th March 2026
🕚 11:00am-12:00pm
Your hosts
Mark Quinn & Debrah Broadfield | Tax advisers & Chartered Financial Planners, Spectrum Portugal
Chris Saunders | Co-Founder and Chartered Investment Manager, New Horizon Asset Management
Financial update March 26 | Spain
By Chris Burke
This article is published on: 2nd March 2026
02.03.26
We’re already halfway through the ski season — if that’s your thing — or halfway to Easter, depending on how you measure the year.
However you look at it, time seems to move faster every year — at least it does for me.
Time spent with loved ones, furry friends, hobbies, or simply resting is precious. And the time we give to our finances is precious too — even if it doesn’t always feel that way in the moment.
“Life admin” never really gets shorter, does it? Even when we automate what we can, there’s always something waiting for attention. And managing finances is often the task that quietly slips down the list.
It can sometimes look irresponsible not to manage or invest your money. But in truth, most people who don’t invest aren’t careless — they’re human. They’re making decisions shaped by emotion, psychology, past experiences, and what they’ve seen around them.
This month, I want to explore both sides of the story: why people avoid investing — and what gently nudges them to begin.
Why People Put Off / Don’t Invest
Fear of Losing Money
As humans, we feel losses much more deeply than gains.
Even though investing has historically built wealth over time, the idea of seeing values temporarily fall can feel uncomfortable — even frightening.
Common thoughts sound like:
- “What if the market crashes tomorrow?”
- “I don’t want to gamble my savings.”
- “At least cash feels safe.”
And yet, inflation quietly reduces the value of cash every year. It just does so slowly and invisibly, which somehow makes it feel less threatening. At 3% inflation, €100,000 left in cash for two years becomes roughly €94,000 in real terms.
Feeling Overwhelmed
Terminology such as stocks, shares, bonds, ETFs, diversification, compounding, tax wrappers, fees… it can feel like learning a new language.
Many people think, “If I don’t fully understand it, I’ll probably get it wrong.”
Without someone to simplify it, waiting feels safer than starting.
Short-Term Thinking (We All Do It)
Spending gives immediate satisfaction. Investing gives delayed reward. It’s completely natural to choose what feels good today over something abstract decades away.
Past Experiences
Market crashes, hearing about scams, or seeing family members receive poor advice can leave a lasting emotional imprint. Even second-hand experiences can quietly shape our beliefs.
Too Many Choices
Ironically, modern investing platforms can make things harder. With thousands of options, people can feel they need to choose perfectly — and when perfection feels impossible, they choose nothing.
What We Grew Up Seeing
If investing wasn’t discussed at home, it can feel unfamiliar or even slightly uncomfortable. Financial habits are often inherited without us realising it.
The Real Barrier
Most people don’t actively decide not to invest. They just delay. And delay again. Until years have passed.
The biggest barrier usually isn’t money — it’s making a decision and worrying about making the wrong one.
What Prompts People to Start an Investment Strategy
There’s often a moment, something like:
- A milestone birthday
- A retirement projection
- Children
- A life requirement (retiring early)
- An inheritance that needs “looking after”
- A quiet realisation that time has moved on
Sometimes it’s simply that savings have built up and sitting in cash no longer feels comfortable. Other times it’s watching a friend or colleague invest calmly and successfully. Perhaps it’s inflation making everyday costs noticeably higher.
Often, it’s discovering that investing doesn’t require stock picking or constant monitoring — that simple, structured approaches exist. And sometimes it’s life itself: children, buying a home, career stability, inheritance, or receiving a lump sum. Those moments naturally make us think longer term.
The Turning Point
People don’t usually start investing when they feel perfectly informed; they start when not investing feels riskier than investing.
When standing still feels less comfortable than taking a step forward.
Looking Beyond the Numbers
Investing isn’t really about charts or screens — it’s about change. About making decisions that give you financial flexibility and security in the future to live a different life:
- Reducing working hours
- Changing careers
- Handling emergencies calmly
- Supporting family
- Retiring comfortably
- Giving back — with money or with time
When people picture those outcomes, investing stops feeling technical or risky and starts feeling purposeful — the focus shifts from short-term uncertainty to long-term control.
If you’ve been waiting to feel completely ready, you’re not alone. Most people never feel 100% ready — and that’s okay. The goal isn’t perfection; it’s participation:
- Start with a strategy you trust
- Plan and understand the journey you want to go on
- Review regularly
- Trust the advice you are being given
Over time, confidence grows naturally, because the greatest financial advantage isn’t intelligence, timing, or luck — it’s taking thoughtful action within a process you understand and feel comfortable with.
“With care you prosper” has always been our motto for a reason.
If this has resonated with you, feel free to reach out. Taking that first step might just be the most valuable piece of life admin you ever complete.
You can arrange an initial consultation to explore your situation [here].
You can also [read independent reviews of my advice and service here].
How much risk are you prepared to take?
By Jeremy Ferguson
This article is published on: 23rd February 2026
23.02.26
A well-informed opinion can be highly valuable when it comes to personal finances.
A couple of weeks ago I attended the 23rd Spectrum partners’ annual conference. It was great to meet up again with my colleagues and our product providers, all of whom work primarily with expats who have moved to various parts of Europe from the UK, mainly to Spain, France, Italy and Portugal.
We get the chance to catch up with the companies we work closely with, keeping up to date with new products and services and the latest topics in the world of investing. This is extremely valuable, as our highest priority when dealing with clients’ finances when they have retired is doing our best to ensure they make money. Many people approach me when they have arrived in Spain, asking about tax efficiency for their pensions and investments. I am always at pains to say the most important thing is first to make investment gains, without which there is no tax issue to worry about. The most tax efficient investment product is one that makes no money!
With successful investing, the first question to answer is how much risk are you prepared to take to try and make money? I assess risk on a scale of 0 to 7, essentially ranging from cash in the bank, to 100% of your money invested in the stock market. Then there is the timeline – how long can we leave this money alone to give it a chance to increase in value? Once we have considered this, we can then look at various options, with attention also given to cost. The point on cost is of course important, as an expensive product will have a detrimental effect on investment returns. I spend a great deal of time when I first meet people who are about to retire speaking about the importance of taking less risk with our money as we get older. If you have a solution which has low costs, then you can effectively take less risk to achieve the rewards you are looking for.
Listening to the investment managers at the conference, I noticed that they have similar views about what may be around the corner, but with slightly different ways of dealing with this. Some managers try to make money by investing in shares of companies when they think prices are low (an opportunity to buy in at good value), others look to companies they feel have growth potential. My view is perhaps rather cynical, as nobody knows what lies ahead, and share prices can change sometimes for irrational reasons. What I do know though is that if you invest money with a good manager, keep a sharp eye on costs and leave the money there for a good number of years, the likelihood is you will achieve sufficiently healthy returns for you to be happy and for your retirement plans to work out well.
If you would like to talk about what options are available to you as a Spanish resident, whether you have recently arrived, or even if you have been here a long time and would like an impartial review of what you already have, please feel free to get in touch.