I am back from The Spectrum IFA Group conference 2024 which this year was held in Budapest. I have been to Budapest before but had forgotten just how interesting the city is.

Getting there was relatively easy enough from Rome: Ryanair to Budapest. Getting back was logistically a bit more difficult, needing to re-route through Prague on a Friday afternoon, creating a 4 and  1/2 hr round trip. This I found quite strange. On a Friday there weren’t many flights going from Budapest to Rome. There was one that returned at some ungodly hour, but I preferred to get home earlier so took the alternative route.

Ryanair is always a variable experience for me. The big panic is always how much your bag weighs and if your hand luggage will fit in the container, because you are never sure who is going to ask and if they are going to be pedantic about the rules, or not. In my case I had packed to perfection on the way out so there was no question, but my main bag weight limit was right on the nose of 20kg. My carry on bag, quasi empty.

At the Budapest end all went smoothly as my bag weighed 21.3kgs on their scales and I guess they used some discretion that my main bag was empty and so the extra could go through. Going through Prague airport was a different story. There, interestingly, my bag weigh 23.4 kgs (which was probably more likely!) so I didn’t argue that point. However, I got the Ryanair agent who went by the book. At this point I tried to argue that my carry-on was almost empty and I could just move some things across, but the overall weight would be the same, so what’s the difference? As you might imagine that didn’t work. He did offer to allow me to move to the side and unpack my main luggage and put some things in my hand luggage. I just couldn’t stand it, so I just agreed to pay the extra fee. We were talking 2kgs at the most and I didn’t have the energy to start unpacking and packing again in front of a queue of people. What a pain! Anyway, I guess I should be happy that I managed to at least survive the Budapest side without issue.

So why am I mentioning all of this? Well, one of the main themes of the conference was Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the impact it will have on our lives in the here and now and the not so distant future. The question is will Ryanair become more consistent when they inevitably use AI in their booking procedures, or maybe they will just continue, for some time to come, with their current form of ‘intelligence’ instead of the artificial type?  Knowing Ryanair, it won’t take long to find out.

Talking points for 2024 and beyond
Anyway, enough about my travel woes and onto some of the talking points raised and ideas for the future which I learned from The Spectrum IFA Group conference 2024.

A quick look back at the markets – 2023
You may have noticed by now that there was a slight rally in the stock market towards the end of 2023. What you may not have noticed was that it was heavily concentrated in one specific sector: TECH! However throughout the year there were some other more interesting developments which caused market volatility during the year.

AI
The hype around AI started driving up markets early in the year. I am sure you know the hype by now: AI will take over the world, humans will become batteries for electricity generation, we are all going to lose our jobs and be replaced by machines, it will be impossible to speak with a human again etc etc. Well, let me put your mind at rest, none of the above are true….at least for now.

(MIT in the USA think that AI is unlikely to replace as many jobs as we think and even those that it does, it will probably not do the job as well as humans. https://fortune.com/2024/01/22/ai-jobs-humans-cost-mit-study/)

If you don’t believe me then take a look at the following slide, courtesy of Evelyn partners, which shows the G7 median unemployment rate going back to 1755! Whichever jobs are displaced by AI will likely be created in some other field, of which may not even exist yet!

Not only, but AI is in in its infancy (think internet 2000 – if you haven’t used ChatGPT yet I would encourage you to ask it some questions and see what kind of responses you receive, you will likely be under whelmed ), but it will likely develop quicker than any technology we have ever seen in human history!

However, here is the list of the top professions which might be affected by AI (Teachers beware!!)

And the least affected:

Here is an interesting fact for you –

In the Federal Reserve in the USA there are approximately 500 employees of which 400 are at PhD level and above, who are all engaged in making economic forecasts. The problem is that they are absolutely terrible at forecasting. In almost every period their forward economic projections turn out to be wrong. As an example in 2021 they anticipated that interest rates in 2023 would be at 1%, when in fact they were 5.25%!

They use historical economic data to predict the future rather than forward looking models which are now readily available from many different companies. Is this an AI opportunity?

But enough of AI, some other strange hype happened during 2023….

So, you might be forgiven for wondering why the markets didn’t really climb during the year when all these actors were at play. Well, the truth is that markets did climb, but they also fell back around November. The hype died. Every 3 or 4 months in 2023 there was a new theme which came to life and then quickly died away. It was almost like everyone was searching for some sign of good news in a year, which otherwise was once again occupied by concerns about global war. Thankfully the year finished on a positive note mainly because of the rise in stock prices of the Magnificent 7 – as they are now known – (Meta, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla).

To 2024 and beyond
So looking forward, what is awaiting us?

The USA is faced with multiple issues that need fixing, none more so than the illegal immigration problem, bringing manufacturing back to the US, fixing the rural rust belt crisis and the fentanyl crisis, and there is a possibility that under Trump they may also leave NATO. The USA is retreating from the rest of the world and becoming more protectionist. Globalisation is unwinding. In some ways it is starting to look very much like the period of the 60’s and 70’s: wars, geopolitical risk, and perhaps the end of the centre left and not just in the US, but also around the world. So all eyes are on the USA this year. US general election years can be good for investment markets (there are no guarantees), but often the government in power will do its utmost to stimulate the economy, consequently stimulating the markets which may help with the voters. It’s all to play for in a world which is changing very quickly.

Elections around the world
Let us not forget that there are also going to be a further 64 elections around the world in 2024, plus the European Union. This will cover 49% of the world’s population. We might see some interesting results as the year progresses.

However, a number of our speakers made the case that perhaps the tide has turned. Not since the 1980’s and 1990’s have they seen such value in the bond sector. Prices are looking attractive, particularly US treasuries and sovereign bonds over a 1, 2 and 5 year periods. Not only do sovereign bonds now have some potential to provide reasonable yields (interest), but also capital growth and capital protection of your portfolio as well.

Portfolio diversification in the1990’s, when I first started investing, very much looked like a 60/40 portfolio. 60% equities and 40% Bonds or vice versa depending on the way of the economy. These days we have many more asset classes to help diversify our portfolio, but it might be that your portfolio starts to resemble those portfolios of the past moving forward.

Healthcare
As I stated above healthcare was very much a hyped theme in 2023, but it will continue to play a much more important role for growth in coming years. I am not just talking about over publicised weight loss drugs but the developments in medical technology. The world is aging. Almost all developed countries in the world now have a falling or negative replacement rate (the birth to death ratio to sustain population). The Far East: China, S. Korea, Japan, for example have dangerously low replacement rates. This means that their populations are aging at a fast rate and with the benefit of better medical care they are living longer. Italy included!

Medical technology will help to relieve the stress on already over-burdened health care systems. A great example of this is my mother in law, who had polio when younger, now has difficulty walking and more importantly a fear of falling. She recently told me that she had bought an iPhone and iWatch because the iWatch will call for an ambulance if your heart rate drops and it suspects that you are unconscious and need medical help.

We might even see more of these things become mandatory if we want to receive access to our health care systems. Imagine your doctor being able to get real time access to your heart rate data if you are suffering from cardiovascular problems.

This will be a huge growth area, but identifying the tech winners might be harder than you might think.

Defence stocks will almost certainly benefit from a multi-year period of growth as armoury, weaponry and military logistical hardware be required for re-stocking purposes by nations across the world. Who will buy from who will very much depend on military and economic interests.

I read the other day that to power the AI universe that the utopian thinkers would have us believe is our future, we would need so much energy that we would effectively need to cover the earth with solar panel and wind turbines, if we were to try and support it with green sustainable energy sources. To what degree that is true, I don’t know, but we are going to need an incredible amount of energy to power the tech needs of the future and it does beckon the question, where is all that energy going to come from? We need a revolution in the storage of energy and no-one is talking about that…yet.

Rewarding Loyalty
As a shopper we all like to think that we are loyal customers. A lot of our favourite places to shop and eat are digging deep to discover just how loyal we really are.

McDonalds is a great example, you can now sign up to their loyalty scheme and receive offers for free burgers and other deals. They are seeing the customer return rate increase as a result of their loyalty schemes. (Interestingly, they are, at the same time pulling away from healthy food options because they were a resounding failure because who wants to go to McDonalds for a salad and a vegan burger… right?!)

Costco is another success in the USA. They are a membership driven business. Their prices and quality of goods are second to none (I have visited one in the UK and can confirm it’s true!) but it’s not that which pulls clients in. They actually have the cheapest gas prices in the USA and this drives people to become members which then allows them to market to each and every customer according to their specific needs.

Customer focused businesses will survive in the modern world.

And finally….boring old infrastructure
(For any non-UK person reading this, HS2 is the high speed railway which the UK has been planning and building for years and is turning into a national farce. But why am I mentioning this? )

Did you know that the USA is in the process of building 50-100 equivalent high speed rail networks?

Infrastructure companies, those building tunnels, roads, railways, electricity grids, toll roads, inter-connected cities, schooling, healthcare facilities etc, leading up to 2023, were considered to be solid businesses in which to invest that would provide long lasting portfolio stability and a decent return. However like most other sectors they were also burdened with debt. In 2022/2023 the interest rate spike suddenly meant they had to contend with significantly increased debt repayments and therefore started restructuring their businesses. The markets didn’t like that and most stocks in this area were down 30-40% in 2023, that created a buying opportunity, because in the end some boring old businesses are worth investing in.

The USA is undergoing significant infrastructure build. A southern border wall is almost assured to be erected following the US election, whoever comes ino power, and besides that we need to update, modify and prepare our economies for the future. Infrastructure spend is going to continue unabated.

So on that note I will leave it there. I just wanted to add a note about some of my activities planned for 2024.

In 2024 I will be expanding my short video content on topics that come up during the year,  and I can do a quick video about them.  I will, of course expand on these subjects in my E-zine. If you are interested then you can see the videos, to date, on my page on The Spectrum IFA Group website. Just click our logo to the right to take you to the page.

In this E-zine I am going to provide a brief summary of the taxes which mostly affect you and your lives in Italy. It is not an exhaustive list, but you can use this for reference or discussion tool with your commercialista if you need to.

There may be specific elements regarding your personal situation, but I shall discuss the most important ones hat might affect you. Throughout this article, I shall also describe the latest changes from the Legge di Bilancio which have now been introduced in 2024.

Summary of the main taxes that affect your life as a ‘straniero/a living in Italy
The first thing you need to remember, as a fiscally resident individual of Italy, is that you are subject to taxation on your worldwide earned and non-earned income: capital gains and assets (including property). It is your job to make sure that you report these to your commercialista each year to complete your tax return. But before you do it for the first time, a financial planning exercise can come always come in useful.
Fiscal residency generally means that you qualify under ‘1’ of the following criteria:

1. You are registered as a resident on the anagrafe
2. You spend more than 183 days a fiscal year ( calendar year) in Italy
3. You have your main business, social or family interests in the country

TAX ON INCOME
NEW INCOME TAX RATES FOR 2024 (IRPEF)
In a move to simplify the tax regime in Italy the tax bands have now moved from 4 to 3 in 2024.

EMPLOYMENT

If you are employed or self employed then there are multiple options available, from partita iva, partita iva, regime forfettario, rientro di cervello, amongst others. I won’t go into details here as these really need to be looked at on a case by case basis, but needless to say that there are financial planning opportunities. If you are working, or intending to work, in Italy or if you have any questions in this area you can contact me on gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com

2024 Change: INBOUND WORKERS TAX REGIME
Regarding the inbound workers tax incentive. The previous tax regime was a 70 – 90% income tax (and social security contributions) deduction for a period of 5 years. This has been reduced to 50%, capped at an annual gross income of €600,000. The time spent as non-resident of Italy prior to applying has been increased to 3 years, (or 6 – 7 years if there is continuity in the employment relationship). However, Italian residency must now be retained for 4 years in Italy, whereas it was previously 2. They have also introduced a requirement for a high level of specialisation (degrees, masters etc) in the qualifications necessary for the job in question.

If you have paid tax already on that income, then a tax credit will be given for the tax paid in the country of origin (assuming that the country has a double taxation agreement with Italy). Any difference between the tax rates in the country of origin and Italy will have to be paid.

I often hear stories of people who are told by their commercialista that their state pension / social security pension is not taxable in Italy, and, more recently I have seen numerous videos on Youtube of individuals who also make this claim. This is absolutely NOT the case!! The UK state pension and US social security are 100% taxable in Italy. It is not excluded from the double taxation treaties and therefore must be declared in Italy. Failure to declare could mean fines and penalties.

2024 Change: NO TAX AREA
For some time now there has been what is know as a NO TAX AREA for someone receiving a pension in Italy (“pensioner” is defined as someone who is receiving official state benefits i.e., social security or state pension). No distinction is made between pensions being paid from abroad or within Italy.

From 2024 the NO TAX AREA has been increased to €8500 per annum.
It is important to understand that this is NOT an allowance i.e., an exclusion of income tax on the first €8500 for ALL pensioners. It is a tax credit system. If your total income (reddito complessivo) is €8500 or less then all the tax payable on your pension will be provided as a tax credit. HOWEVER, the more your total income, from all sources, increases over €8500, the more of the tax credit you lose. If your total income is €55000 or above you would not receive any tax credit.

GOVERNMENT DERIVED PENSIONS
It is a good idea to define what is meant by government paid pensions. The definition according to the Italy / UK / USA double taxation convention 1988 is, paid from:

” a political or an administrative subdivision or a local authority”

This generally means civil servants of any kind and foreign office employees but would generally include teachers who have worked in a public school, health care workers, military personnel, police fire service etc. In these cases, the pension awarded is taxable only in the state in which it originates, and tax is generally deducted at source in that country of origin.

But there are some tax idiosyncrasies to look out for here. On the positive side, this income is not taken into account when calculating the tax on your other income sources in Italy, e.g. rental income, and it is not declared on your tax declaration in Italy.

On the negative side, for those of you who are thinking of becoming citizens of Italy, these pensions are only taxed in the state of origin UNLESS you become a citizen of Italy, or are one already, in which case it becomes taxable. So for anyone thinking about cittadinanza, plan before you leap!

My final note on pensions is to say that ensuring that they are filed correctly on your tax return in Italy is essential. There are only various shades of grey when it comes to how to declare overseas pensions correctly. Speaking to the right experts might mean the difference between paying more tax than you need to.

INVESTMENT INCOME AND CAPITAL GAINS
As of 1st January 2017, interest from savings, income from investments in the form of dividends and other non-earned income payments stands unchanged at a flat tax rate of 26%. Realised capital gains are also taxed at the same rate of 26%.

(Interest from Italian government bonds and government bonds from ‘white list’ countries are still taxed at 12.5% rather than 26%, as detailed above. This is another quirk of Italian tax law as this means that you pay less tax as a holder of government bonds in Pakistan or Kazakhstan, than a holder of corporate bonds from Italian giants ENI or FIAT).

BANK ACCOUNTS AND DEPOSITS

If you have any questions about any of these taxes and how they apply to you and your financial situation, or if you think that you might be paying more than need to, then do get in touch and I will be happy to see if I can help you with your plans.   

I can be contacted on email: gareth.horsfall@spectrum-ifa.com or on cell: +39 333 6492356 

Happy New Year to everyone! I hope that you have had an enjoyable festive season and are feeling ready for 2024.

In keeping with the long tradition of Italian governments fiddling with tax rules, 2024 brings with it a number of changes, so let’s dive in and have a look at what to expect.

IRPEF marginal tax rates

For 2024 we will have only 3 marginal tax rates:

This abolishes the previous band from €15 – 28,000 which was taxed at 25%, which will result in a net saving for someone with an income of €28,000 of €260 per annum. Don’t get too excited though, because if you have an income above €50,000, the reduction in IRPEF rates is offset by the withdrawal of certain tax breaks, which could lead to you paying the same amount as before.

Residency rules
2024 introduces a modified formulation of the definition of tax residency, in particular through Art. 2 of the TUIR (the Italian tax code). Without getting too deeply into the details, the emphasis seems to have moved from a strict presumption based on whether you have, in fact, declared residency in your local municipality to one based more generally on your physical presence and an evolved conception of domicile. Not much will change for you if you live year round in Italy and are already used to filing tax returns, but if, for example, you have made a determination that you aren’t tax resident in Italy in spite of the fact that you spend a large amount of time here, it would be a good idea to review your position to make sure that it is (relatively) clear under the modified formulation. The changes also need to be considered in the light of any double tax agreements and, from what I have been reading, even the experts are confused about what all this will mean in practice. None of the above is helped by the fact that the Agenzia will not give an advance ruling on whether a given individual is tax resident or not – they will tell you what they think if they ever subject you to an audit!

Careful planning and prudence remain key to protecting your position, so do get in touch if you would like to discuss further, as I can provide an introduction to an experienced tax adviser as part of an overall review of your financial situation.

Inbound Workers Incentive
Those who took up residency before the end of 2023 can continue to use the previous rules, which are far more generous than the updated version, in force from the beginning of 2024.

The incentive currently available is reduced from the previous 70 – 90% income tax reduction to a 50% reduction, capped at an annual gross income of €600,000. The requirement for the time spent as non-resident of Italy prior to making use of the incentive has been increased to 3 years, (or 6 – 7 years if there is continuity in the employment relationship). There is also an increased requirement to maintain Italian residency for 4 years (previously 2), and a requirement for a high level of specialisation in the qualifications necessary for the job in question.

Given the growing complexity of the requirements, it is worth spending some time assessing your personal situation if you are considering making use of these incentives. It is also worth noting that the incentives do not apply to pension contributions, which may reduce considerably the value of the tax break for anyone not planning on being resident in Italy for the long-term.

It is worth reminding anyone making use of these incentives that they apply only to work income; any investments or passive income generated must be declared and taxed according to the ordinary rules. There are plenty of tax planning opportunities available for people transferring residency to Italy, so please do get in touch to discuss your own particular situation – it is never too early to start this process, as a number of potential tax efficiencies are lost if they are not put in motion before becoming Italian tax resident.

Increased IVIE (wealth tax applied to foreign real estate)
As if life wasn’t already tough enough for those owning property outside of Italy (and particularly outside of the EU), the IVIE rate goes up in 2024 from 0.76% to 1.06%, calculated either on the equivalent of the valore catastale (if the property is within the EU), or on the lower of cost or market value if it is outside the EU.

For many people, owning foreign property is simply a sign of the connection they maintain with their country of origin. However, unless you really do need a property in another country, it may ultimately be more trouble (and cost) than it is worth once you take into consideration the difficulty of managing property from afar and its tax treatment. Consider that financial assets, which are vastly easier to manage and can provide a tax-efficient income if set up correctly, are subject to a wealth tax that is more than 80% lower than the tax applied to real estate and can qualify for a 100% inheritance tax exemption. I can provide an objective financial analysis for anyone considering alternatives to their foreign property investments.

CFCs and holding companies
Controlled Foreign Companies (CFCs) have long been a difficult area and tend to get mixed up in the general issue of residency, given that foreign corporate entities can be classified as Italian residents in a similar way to individuals who may consider themselves to be non-resident for tax purposes. The Italian tax treatment of CFCs has hitherto based itself on a threshold level of taxation for the CFC in question: if it is taxed at less than 50% of the equivalent Italian tax, this will attract negative consequences. This threshold level has since been simplified to 15%, with further consideration being given to holding companies that may enjoy a participation exemption. This is a very complicated area, but suffice to say that reviewing any holdings you might have in foreign corporate entities, especially if these are controlling interests, should be part of your Italian financial planning. I can provide appropriate introductions to experts in this field as part of an overall review of your situation.